I put patience. I'm not the most experienced player around by far but I did learn after a few years that you have to be very patient to have any sustainable bankroll.

I know some guys that insist on having action on every single race, or worse after a bad streak instead of sitting a few out will try to "make it up" by throwing down a huge win or place bet far above their normal bet size.

Patience is truly a virtue.



Especially when it comes to wagering on ponies.



Fantastic post my friend. :ThmbUp:

Syncretizing Beyer's trip handicapping protagonist, "Charlie" ("It's not how fast they run. It's how they run fast that counts", i.e., in theory the higher the speed figure, the easier the trip, contextualized within today's potential trip), with respectable public speed ratings to begin the interpretive process, with Benter's "public odds as an independent variable" (public does the analytical heavy lifting) to arrive at value.

Every Time
 

I rely on software and patience and 2 horse betting ala Sartin.
Been watching and betting race since the 50's and everytime I think I've seen it all they show me something else!

Thank you for the post lefty. This is just pure awesomeness to me.



The eyes and ears of what you have experienced must be incredible. :ThmbUp:

Dick Mitchell, rest his soul, used to say that chess was "finite" and thus "easy" compared to horse racing. "All" you had to do to become a chess master was to learn the approximately 1M moves that are possible on a fixed chessboard with pieces whose moves are controlled by fixed rules. Horse racing has an infinite number of factors that can combine in infinite ways under dynamic conditions, with no fixed rules to control the "moves" of the "pieces", resulting in possibilities that no one can possibly master. At least not in the short run.

Here's one such example, a blast from my past of note:

Why More Worry (KY)
TB, DK B/, M, FOALED APRIL 23, 1971
( TIME TESTED - WAVE OF JOY, BY JOHNS JOY )

Must have been 1975 @ Hollywood Park. This filly always went to the lead going 2 turns on the turf and often won as the favorite (2-1 was a fairly "heavy" favorite in those days, fields were larger, lament, lament).

That day she did her thing at her usual 2-1, was breezing on the lead by open daylight in deep stretch, then about 10 feet from the wire she decides she's a steeplechaser, jumps the inner rail, tosses the jockey, and runs off to go swimming with the Goose Girl in one of the infield lakes.

Record keeping.

ONE MILLION?

I always liked Dick Mitchell, but he had this grossly underestimated.

I recall reading a book - I think it was Artificial Life - where the potential situations on a chessboard could be describe as -

If you studied one position per second, and started back at the time of the Big Bang, you'd not yet be half way through all the possibilities.

Nevertheless, he was right about horse racing having an infinite number of permutations. One reason for that is that the game falls into the category of Complex Adaptive System.

That is, the game is constantly evolving and changing.

By comparison, there actually are a finite number of chess situations.

Dick Mitchell is obviously wrong. I know horseplayers who claim to be wildly successful bettors...and they only need to memorize a few easy-to-remember handicapping "angles". Good luck trying to beat a Garry Kasparov by memorizing a few fancy opening moves.

Speaking of chess, I just got my final piece of my CIvil War Chess Set this week! :jump::jump::jump:

Software and experience. Software tells me when to get in. Experience tells me when to stay the hell out.

What software do you use?

If I can only pick one tool.
 

For me, it's hand down the the Toteboard. For the most part, the smart phone has replaced the actual tote on track or at my OTB. I use DRF's Live odds screens, which gives me most of what I require. The information can be used either with pen and paper, or on excel spreadsheets. One of PA's highly skilled programmers has coded the info. into his software, but I'm mostly a pen and paper guy or an excel ss user.

Tote board!