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formula_2002

11-24-2020 02:36 PM

236 RACE TOTE BOARD EXACTA SUMMARY

11-24-2020

236 RACE TOTE BOARD SUMMARIES

ACCOUNTING FOR THE TOP THREE PUBLIC CHOICES ABOUT 1 MINUETE TO POST (SOMETIMES A BIT SHORTER OR LONGER DEPENDING ON THE TOTE BOARD UPDATES).

IN THIS SAMPLE;

THE TOP RANK WON 76 OF THE RACES
SECOND RANK WON 50
THIRD RANK WON 40

MY EXACTA ANALYSIS CAPTURED;.
TOP RANK / MY PLACE HORSEWON 59 OF THE RACES FOR A $1 RETURN OF $0.82
SECOND RANK/MY PLACE HORSE WON 33 FOR A $ RETURN OF $1.26
THIRD RANK/ MY PLACE HORSE WON 18 FOR A $1 RETURN OF $1.00

COMPARE THOSE RESULTS TO THE PUBLIC’S $1 WIN BET RETURNES.
TOP RANK $0.60
SECOND RANK $0.47
THIRD RANK $0.51

A REVERSE EXACTA PLAY WAS ALSO ACCOUNTED FOR.
MY PLACE HORSE / TOP RANKED WON 43 OF THE RACES FOR A $1 RETURN OF $0.68
MY PLACE HORSE /SECOND RANK WON 50 FOR A $ RETURN OF $0.98
MY PLACE HORSE / THIRD RANK WON 44 FOR A $1 RETURN OF $0.92

formula_2002

11-26-2020 12:02 PM

Code:

THIS IS WHAT THE BETTING SCREEN LOOKS LIKE Churchill Downs* Race 2 TOP>>> 5 2ND >>> 3 3RD >>> 7 GREEN BET SIZE>>> 269 5 3 7 PGNOS>>> 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL ROW STRAIGHT>> 0 0 51 0 0 0 49 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100.00 COLUMN STRAIGHT>> 0 0 9 0 91 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100.00 REVERSE >> 0 4 30 4 31 4 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100.00 WIN LINE CG619 0.00 0.00 3.46 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 6.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.77 PGNOS>>> 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 PLACE COLUMN BF675>>> 0.00 33.67 240.18 28.32 247.06 28.91 221.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 799.21 799.21 799.21 799.21 799.21 799.21 799.21 799.21 799.21 799.21 799.21 799.21 799.21 799.21 799.21 799.21 799.21 0.00 0.04 0.30 0.04 0.31 0.04 0.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 51.05 0.00 91.20 0.00 48.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 191.20 0.00 0.00 0.27 0.00 0.48 0.00 0.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0 191.20 191.20 191.20 191.20 191.20 191.20 191.20 191.20 191.20 191.20 191.20 191.20 191.20 191.20 191.20 191.20

formula_2002

11-26-2020 12:11 PM

DATE 11/26/2020
TRACK RACE # Churchill Downs* Race 2

EXACTA 5 3

$1 EXACTA RETURN $4.20
$1 WIN RETURN $1.70

GREEN win bet size $268.73

# horses 6
ROW STRAIGHT EXACTA $2.14
COLUMN STRAIGHT EXACTA $4.20

ROW WINNER/PIBLIC RETURN $0.00
COLUMN WINNER/PIBLIC RETURN $4.20
WINNER/PIBLIC RETURN $1.86

STRAIGHT ROW COLUMN COMPOSITE $2.82
top pick 5
2nd pick 3
3rd pick 7

formula_2002

11-30-2020 05:04 PM

Intermediate update. I now have 275 races in my database. With more data comes more knowledge
The 2nd ranked horse continues to do well in the straight exacta.
Because I have come up with a method to include the column bet sizes with the row bet sizes, the $1 straight exacta plays returned $1.50 on the dollar at a win rate oof 18%.
The 2nd ranked reverse exacta Returned only $0.94 on the dollar, winning 58 of the 275 races.the combined win rate for both plays was 35%.
Of the 275 races, 100 of them were at major tracks, bel, aqu,kee, CD and alike. Those returns did much of the heavy lifting. I'll see how the returns look after 25 more races

formula_2002

11-30-2020 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by formula_2002 (Post 2679692)

Intermediate update. I now have 275 races in my database. With more data comes more knowledge
The 2nd ranked horse continues to do well in the straight exacta.
Because I have come up with a method to include the column bet sizes with the row bet sizes, the $1 straight exacta plays returned $1.50 on the dollar at a win rate oof 18%.
The 2nd ranked reverse exacta Returned only $0.94 on the dollar, winning 58 of the 275 races.the combined win rate for both plays was 35%.
Of the 275 races, 100 of them were at major tracks, bel, aqu,kee, CD and alike. Those returns did much of the heavy lifting. I'll see how the returns look after 25 more races

this needs revision

formula_2002

12-07-2020 12:03 AM

I have a 300 + race data base.
with more data comes more knowledge.
the best results require only the public's top TWO picks and my selected place horses.

THE STUDY.
here are the plays for both the row and column bet sizes

straight and reverse exacta plays as follows
top pick/ second pick and my place horses for the row and column bet sizes
second pick/ top pick and my place horses for the row and column bet sizes
THAT IS A TOTAL OF 8 PLAYS

PLUS

A STRAIGHT EACTA PLAY COMBINING THE ROW AND COLUMN BET SIZES
FOR THE TOP AND SECOND PICK/ MY PLACE HORSES
FOR AN ADDITIONAL 2 PLAYS

I'LL POST THE REVISED RESULTS SHORTLY.

formula_2002

12-14-2020 11:39 PM

THE BEST I CAN OFFER AT THIS TIME IS THE STRAIGHT EXACTA COLUMN PLAY
PUBLIC TOP PICK /MY PLACE HORSES +PUBLIC SECOND CHOICE
PUBLIC SECOND PICK / MAY PLACE HORSE + PUBLIC TOP PICK

300 RACES $1 BET RETURNED $1. AT A HIT RATE OF 23%

I'M STILL WORKING ON THE REVERSE EXACTA DATA BASE CALCULATIONS AND THE COMBINATION STRAIGHT EXACTA PLAY.

formula_2002

12-22-2020 12:58 PM

Finished a 300 race exacta betting study
A part wheel straight exacta using the top two public choices on top , plus a part wheel, reverse exact using the top two public choices under.

Combined plays won 50 percent of the time returning about $1.03 on the dollar. Will start posting shortly
I determine the bet sizes and the other horses. My intention is to post about 2 minutes before the hoses load into the starting gate.

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