I entertain you?



:pound::pound::pound::pound::pound::pound::lol:

:)
Funny Stuff, very entertaining

I'm always thinking I'll post a series of plays, but seldom do. Playing the races isn't real conducive to updating a forum while you're getting your 'capping done.

That's my EVERY POST! :lol:

For the record, and people can do it however they like, I never intended for this thread to be a "post your plays before the race happens" sort of thread. I enjoyed that EMD did it that way, but I don't feel it is necessary.

What I am doing is posting my journey from having finally "completed" my software after years of off and on work, to learning how to profit with it. I am interested in how people approach the game - the thought process and/or mechanical processes employed - so invited others to join in on the fun.

To me, the most important aspect of the game is discipline. I also believe it is the most difficult aspect of the game. How many people TRULY know exactly how well this or that angle/method/hunch works over the long term? My guess is not very many. I think most shoot from the hip and make assumptions based upon scant data and murky memories. I also believe most people bet way too big for their bankroll. Personally, I don't want to lose and not know why, so I'm working on discipline as a major component of my attempt at profitability. I am attempting to do that by programming my thoughts and letting my computer read my mind and take emotion out of the equation.

That's really what this thread is. Do you have a method that you believe is capable of growing a small bankroll into a large bankroll? Do you have the discipline to allow growth to happen? Without giving away trade secrets, what can you teach us about your approach to help us improve?

Having said all that, I see the flaw in my vision of the thread, and EMD had it right in what he did. I know I am honest about my performance, but I can't expect anybody else to believe me. I'll do my best to post in real time going forward.

All THAT said, changes are afoot for me, based on cold hard data. That will be a separate post in this thread.

There is always a certain amount of risk when we project a handicapping method's "profitability" going forward...especially in a dynamic game like horse racing. What worked for the past 3 years or so may not work in year 4 and beyond; such is the level of "uncertainty" that the horseplayer must grapple with.

There is no great "secret" to growing a small bankroll over time. The main thing, IMO, is that the starting bankroll should not prevent the bettor from carrying out his initial wagering plan.

For instance:

If you are starting with a $100 bankroll and the intention to attack the exactas...then the plan is doomed from the start. Such a limited starting bankroll does not provide protection against the added risk that the exacta brings along. If trifectas are to be included...then the bankroll demands increase further still.

"Boredom" is another big reason that small bankrolls fail to grow...IMO. Let's say that the player puts up a $200 bankroll...and starts betting $3 to win on his selections. He makes 5 bets a day...and is confident that his system/method will provide him with a long-term ROI of about 1.10. His intention is to slowly increase his betting amount as his bankroll gets bigger. After 10 days of betting, he checks his records and finds that he has invested $150 overall, and has showed an overall profit of $15...with the bankroll now standing at $215. An average profit of $1.50 a day. Seeing this, he wonders if he is really just wasting his time. But he is afraid to commit more money to the bankroll and increase his wagers...because his fear of loss is a greater emotion than his desire for gain. So...he stays with the $3 wagers, until the inevitable losing streak comes about...and he now finds the bankroll below the starting level. Now...he is GLAD that he didn't increase the betting amount earlier...but a doubt is now creeping in about the overall profitability of his handicapping method.

I could go on...but entire BOOKS could be written about the "mental side" of wagering...and how to stick to our original plan in the face of adversity. To talk about it is a lot easier than to actually do it.

I've always questioned playing one way to build a bankroll, and then once it's built, obviously by a profitable method, the player then changes strategy. If the bankroll building method works, why not stick with it? If the method that will be implemented when the bankroll is funded is profitable, why not build the bankroll with that method?

I mean, seriously, I know the answer to this, it comes down to the risk you can effectively manage with the initial, smaller investment. But it's always food for thought for those trying to become profitable in this game.

I'm going to start playing superfectas, and not playing WPS bets.

Of course, I just played my first one and didn't post it here first, and it should be a pretty nice one in the 4th at GP:headbanger:. Prices pending.

Basically, in re-running my software with my new factor that I talked about earlier in the thread, I found that it served to confirm the factors that I was already using. It didn't really improve results. And, I see no evidence that my win, place or show bets will turn a profit long term.

However, my factors do rank contenders very well, in that my #1 contender wins more often than my #2 contender and so on. The software output also gives me separation in abilities between the horses. So, I thought it may be nice to use in figuring out superfecta bet structures. That's where I am now. I've goofed around with these new numbers a little, and it seems to work pretty well. It does at this point require some manual labor, so not quite black boxy. I will work on black boxing it, but I don't know whether that will be possible or not.

Anyway, I'm limiting my wagers to 120 total bets per superfecta, or $12 for a 10cent bet. I have no idea what my bankroll starting point should be, so I settled on $500 since that is a nice round number. I'll be playing only races where my favorite horse is 3/1 or better, and in fields of at least 7 horses.

My first play just netted me over $658. I may quit my job today:lol:

Everybody need some kind.....
:D Hello!
Everybody need some kind of help at one time or another in one or more subjects.
I read your adds and let them be.
If I can find the help I am looking for I might even become a financial sponsor.

Here is my predicament:


Does anybody keep track of largest average payoff race tracks in North America or know anyone else that does?. I have a method that picks a lot of long-shots but I need to find out which tracks have the highest so I could use my method there.
Right now I am betting OP and getting excellent results:
7 days, 49 races, 13 wins with a 69 % profit on flat bets!!!!!
But OP is a short meeting and I need new venues to apply my trade.

Thanks and God bless you all. :D

hello All
Well lets try again down $100 add $100 todays plays $5.00 place on all
AQ
R7/#:8:
GP
R2/#:4:
R10/#:5:
OP
R6/#:3:
R7/#:6:
HAW
R8/#:7:
LRL
R3/#:6:
TAM
R7/#:6:
SA
R3/#:6:
TOTAL $45.00

3/17/17 one scr bet $40.00 return
$28.75 -$11.25 bankroll at $88.75 (lose -$111.75)
--------------
3-18-17 plays
MVR
R1/#:1:
PRX
R10/#:1:
AQ
R7/#:3:
CT
R7/#:3:
OP
R9/#:1:
TP
R7/#:8:
$2.00 WPS on All
total $36.00

3-18-17 sucked bet $28.00 return $11.80 -$16.20 bankroll at $72.55 (total lose $127.95)
------------
Today we are going to bet the Sartin Methodology way that's 2 horses in one race the reason y is in Betmix you have the Top 10 factors in every race you do get 6 or 7 out of 10 that are speed factors now you have the good races we need the top-2 picks to bet so we go to Rangefinder to get them ... So here is Aqu, Op
-------
Aqu
R2/#4-5 6 of 10
R3/#2-4. 6 of 10
R4/#1-7. 6 of 10
R6/#6-2. 6 of 10
R8/#6-3. 6 of 10
Op
R2/#4-7. 6 of 10
R3/#2-4 7 of 10
R4/#6-2. 7 of 10
R5/#2-1. 7 of 10
R6/#9-10 7 of 10
$2.00 win/ $4.00 place on each

Pretty good start for the new strategy, and I have to admit, as much of a grinder as I tend to be, these superfectas are a lot of fun! Lots of losing, but the wins are much more exciting than a $9 winner:headbanger:

My numbers seem to be working pretty well so far. Generally, it seems that either the race goes according to plan and my pick to win either wins or runs really well and the horses I toss out run terribly, or I am just wrong and my pick finishes last and my toss outs win. It is nice to lose a race when the entire plan falls apart and not lose because my last place horse finishes 4th:)

Short week 1 closes with 29 wagers placed, 5 wins and a profit of $738.87.

Things to work on: I feel like I'm gambling too much, playing races that are a close fit, but not a perfect(ish) fit. I'll be a little more discriminating next week. Clearly, with 29 wagers placed already, I don't need bad bet action.

Was your big hit a "perfect(ish) fit"...or a speculative wager?

My own experience tells me that, in the superfecta, the "iffy" bets bring the best rewards.

It was the perfect fit, but there was a lot of value in my horses that particular play.