She could probably be the favorite on the first saturday in may, or 1-9 in the Oaks ?

Z

That is a good question. I'm usually suspect of horses that keep winning wire to wire while alone on the lead, but in her case she is running fast to do it based on my pace figures. She is simply faster than the competition and I'm not sure others can keep up early even if asked to do so. It would probably be a suicide mission.

If I had to guess, I'd say by the end of this year at 1m 1/8 she could run 130 based on what I've seen so far. I'm in no hurry to bet on or against her so I'm just going to enjoy as a fan.

Updated as of 3-12 races.

Updated as of 3-12 race.

As of 3-19. No updates to Oaks Trail this week.

Updated with Dubai and Louisiana Derby:

Updated with FG Oaks:

Updated after 4-2 races.

Updated after 4-2 filly races.

Oaks Preps

Derby Preps

These are the comments that will be on my TVG piece and in the TimeformUS blog about the races:

Wood Memorial

Outwork has improved his TimeformUS Speed Figure in each start; blazing fractions early---4th place finisher Matt King Coal earned 112 figure, second best in race

Blue Grass

Top three finishers were 11th, 14th, and 12th after two furlongs; race set up perfectly for closers---fractions in red (fast pace) and TimeformUS bias code of blue indicates surface favored off pace types

Santa Anita Derby

Exaggerator's 119 the top figure this far in a Kentucky Derby points race; both career route wins have come on off tracks

115 for Uncle Lino. He ran well in the RB Lewis too. I wonder if he gets in, he's sitting 22nd in points. Another pace factor if he makes the field.

CJ,

What figure did Danzig Candy get for the Santa Anita Derby?

Cj, gives us your expertise, out of all the prep races you have seen so far, who looks the best to wear the roses on May 7?