Updated with races of 3-24, 3-25. Right click to open image in a new tab for readability. Also attached for fast viewing.

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CJ what do you think about the pace Mendelssohn set? My big drawback from foreign horses has been their inability to handle an American pace. I genuinely think this one has the pace ability needed in this race and am ready to bet with both hands. At least as of now! That could change. But just wanted your overall assessment if you would brother!

He actually set a pretty solid pace. There is no run up at Meydan so the fractions look slower than we are used to seeing. But the UAE Derby was above average pace wise. I also don't think he is a need the lead as he proved winning the Juvy Turf. If you can rate on turf, generally you can rate on dirt where the pace is faster.

I completely agree on the rating. When a horse is the best in a race they can just go to the front but it is not necessary. For whatever reason I have been dying to find a horse coming out of this race. And Obrien has been a cash cow for me! With so many jinxes I am assured a good price! I think that race he ran will do him a world of good.

I think I read that they will wait until the last possible moment before shipping. That is a problem for me as is no races here in the U.S.
1.Last minute ship
2. Quarantine
3. no time to get acclimated to track or surroundings
4. Possible crazy KY weather.

I say Mendelsohn is a toss for the win.

CJ, how did you have the pace for the Santa Anita Derby?


I'm watching the race early, saying "Easy, Mike... don't go too fast now... take it easy!... Why is he being so aggressive!?", and then the raw fractions are flashed on the screen and they look avg/slow.

Were my eyes(and small win ticket) playing tricks on me, or was that track playing slow?

Here are the pace and final figures of the preps from TUS (of the leader at the call)

Justify - 140 140 129 131 133
Good Magic - 132 131 125 123 121
Vino Rosso - 159 159 137 126 120

In the Wood there was a run off horse so the pace looks a little funny. The Woods pace completely collapsed, even if you use the place horse to create the pace line. The Blue Grass was well proportioned. The Santa Anita Derby had fast pace and fast time.

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I guess I am a little surprised about Mendolsshon' figure, thought he ran better than that.

Me too.

I unofficially gave him a 128, but for our PPs we use Timeform Ratings for all non-North American racing.

Makes a little more sense, in your opinion was the track he ran on biased in any way? I see mixed signals on this. I felt the track may have favored speed but saying it was biased is stretching it.

I think the track strongly favored the inside and it has for months, not just on World Cup Day.

The Golden Shaheen was oddly run in that none of the best horses spent any real time on the rail. If they had the result would have been different in my opinion. They were all at least three wide.

Latest which includes all the prep races:

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