| NorCalGreg |
10-14-2021 11:42 PM |
Handicapping, Spot Plays, Software, etc
.
https://i.postimg.cc/0QRDs2LM/SPEED-...OMING-SOON.png
Speed Demons--just getting the final spot plays in order now. All that's left is for me to write up instructions and get it up on the website.
A well-known software author and vendor has been doing some research and testing...here is the comment he just sent:
"Thanks Greg, been using it in conjunction with the Mike Pizzola Valuecapping software, as a confirmation of certain spot plays from Valuecapper, very powerful so far, will keep you updated"
Very nice...I think most will be quite pleased :)
Maybe a week to 10 days and we'll be good to go
-NCG |
| geroge.burns99 |
10-15-2021 09:07 AM |
Welcome back buddy
Mike
|
| NorCalGreg |
10-15-2021 12:08 PM |
Belmont Today
Thank you Mike
This is the Trainer Angle Report from Speed Demons for Belmont. Trackmaster sells these same angles for $5 or $10 a day...for 1 track.
.
https://i.postimg.cc/B6sgFWGz/Traine...mont-10-15.png
Also 3 spot plays from Belmont today:
7th BAY STORM 3-1
8TH EASY TO BLESS 3-1
9TH PROPENSITY 9/2
Good luck
-NCG
|
| geroge.burns99 |
10-15-2021 12:54 PM |
Nice stuff there .....
Is it possible to ADD a column on how many wins the trainer had with that angle...????
This will add strength to each of those angles...
thxs
Mike
|
| geroge.burns99 |
10-16-2021 12:26 AM |
Good job...a couple of nice ones :headbanger:
|
| NorCalGreg |
10-16-2021 12:32 AM |
OZ ROCKS
*I'll check with Steve on that, Mike...and see if we can get the Trainer's wins added to the Trainer Report.
We are fortunate enough to have Simon, better known here as Ozyank-to contribute his handicapping expertise to Pace-View.
I gotta tell ya--This guy is a real pro. His spot-play "AUSSIE OUTBACK" is killer. He wins because he tirelessly works at winning. I know he's solid, so today is the first day I even bothered to check his method. It's already coded into Speed Demons, so today I had 4 tracks of data files, and here were the results:
GPX 4TH AWESOME VIEW $4.40
BEL 7TH BAY STORM 2ND
KEE 8TH CENTER AISLE $7.40
SA 1ST DEL MAR DRAMA 3RD
CTX 1ST BLUE COLLAR BOY $13.00
CTX 7TH SLINGIN SAMMY B $3.00
I entered a CTX head-to-head contest at Horse Tourneys...I usually do fairly well there, but tonight I couldn't catch much of anything. The first race I used Simon's Blue Collar Boy--I think that was all I hit for the night. But it was enough for the win!
I owe you a beer, Simon 🍺
-NCG
|
| NorCalGreg |
10-16-2021 07:38 PM |
phishing trip
This is actually comical:D, the lengths these @$$holes go to rip people off. I don't know how they make it appear it was sent from my own email address--and don't care enough to find out.
..and no, I've never owned a webcam nor microphone
https://i.postimg.cc/ZR8fqbNQ/email.png
*at least they invested in SPELL-CHECK now
|
| NorCalGreg |
10-16-2021 09:50 PM |
Improved Trainer Reports
At MikeSal's (ooops GarageBurns) suggestion-added Trainer Starts and Win % to the report.
As soon as I looked at this--that Chad Brown entry stood out:
43% wins, over 100 races, solidly profitable. That is astounding considering Chad is usually hopelessly overbet.
Gabby Squared $6.00 $3.40 $2.60
https://i.postimg.cc/1591Ft9s/BELMON...PORT-10-16.png
|
| geroge.burns99 |
10-16-2021 10:09 PM |
I see and hear ya bud.....
looks good...
back to porn....:D
|
| geroge.burns99 |
10-17-2021 07:34 AM |
Greg.....
I would expand on that Aussie guy and his work in Pace-View
As for the Trainer Report , the Post Position bothers me and looks kinda off..
Maybe delete that and spell out RACE# ....PRGM # .....IMO
Mike loves Geroge
|
| NorCalGreg |
10-17-2021 12:45 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by geroge.burns99
(Post 2760572)
Greg.....
I would expand on that Aussie guy and his work in Pace-View
As for the Trainer Report , the Post Position bothers me and looks kinda off..
Maybe delete that and spell out RACE# ....PRGM # .....IMO
Mike loves Geroge
|
I personally don't see a problem the way it currently is, Mike. Keep in mind, everytime my programmer turns his computer on-the meter is running.
We have bigger fish to fry at the moment...but I do appreciate your comments:)
-NCG |
| lefty359 |
10-17-2021 06:44 PM |
I'd be interested in how your researcher uses you prm in conjunction
With Valucapper.
|
| OzYank |
10-17-2021 09:28 PM |
G'day Y'all
:coffee::coffee::headbanger:
G'day and welcome back to the forum Greg.... I was missing this chat and the banter discussing various ways of winning with your software.... oh and if I lived near your neck of the woods I would definitely take you up on that beer mate !!!!! Your in CA right? I am in FL.
Simon
|
| NorCalGreg |
10-19-2021 01:10 AM |
Heya Simon! I had no idea you were in Fla. Here in the part of Ca I live--they shut our power off until almost 6PM. Missed all the Horse Tourneys, betting, the whole enchilada. Just getting online now.
Got to do some reading, anyway. A couple handicapping methods that were fairly useless: "Pro Rated Longshots" and something else I never heard of called "Explosive Horse".
That PRL book...well, whenever a book contains useless lists of trainers, tracks, class ratings...or in this case the author lists every alleged winner, every day, all tracks (I assume)--which takes up at least half the book. This book came out in the early 70's...I can't see how, even 50 years ago--this was a winner.
This could have gone on an eight-page pamphlet, without leaving anything important out.
Anyone ever heard of "Explosive Horse"? It has to do with speed ratings, with some information (I think this info is only the author's theory). You can have all the theories you want, and find past perf's to back it up, if you look long enough. In my opinion, that is exactly what the author did here. If what he says here were true--you and I both would both know something of this method. I checked, since I had nothing but time today...now I can't get this out of my head :D.
We're still shoring up and fixing a couple glitches on the new program--by this weekend or next-- I hope to be writing up instructions and maybe some examples, etc.
-Or not, depending on how we do and what gets done.
We'll see.
-NCG
|
| CheckMark |
10-19-2021 05:23 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
(Post 2760899)
Heya Simon! I had no idea you were in Fla. Here in the part of Ca I live--they shut our power off until almost 6PM. Missed all the Horse Tourneys, betting, the whole enchilada. Just getting online now.
Got to do some reading, anyway. A couple handicapping methods that were fairly useless: "Pro Rated Longshots" and something else I never heard of called "Explosive Horse".
That PRL book...well, whenever a book contains useless lists of trainers, tracks, class ratings...or in this case the author lists every alleged winner, every day, all tracks (I assume)--which takes up at least half the book. This book came out in the early 70's...I can't see how, even 50 years ago--this was a winner.
This could have gone on an eight-page pamphlet, without leaving anything important out.
Anyone ever heard of "Explosive Horse"? It has to do with speed ratings, with some information (I think this info is only the author's theory). You can have all the theories you want, and find past perf's to back it up, if you look long enough. In my opinion, that is exactly what the author did here. If what he says here were true--you and I both would both know something of this method. I checked, since I had nothing but time today...now I can't get this out of my head :D.
We're still shoring up and fixing a couple glitches on the new program--by this weekend or next-- I hope to be writing up instructions and maybe some examples, etc.
-Or not, depending on how we do and what gets done.
We'll see.
-NCG
|
Hi Greg! Nice to see you back here!
Is the author of “Explosive Horse” Arthur Stanley? It looks like that book is being sold at Winbetus website for $60.00 if that is the author.
And who is the author of Pro Rated Longshots? Dan Geer?
I also know that Pandy on here wrote a book called “Pace Handicapping Longshots” and that book would be a much better one that PRL lol as I have enjoyed that book very much. |
| geroge.burns99 |
10-19-2021 08:21 AM |
Glad your back and this thread should take off again....
And for the life of me , I still cant figure why I cant get back my old name back again....
:pound:
|
| sharkey11 |
10-19-2021 10:57 AM |
hey NCG have you ever tryed any of gary brakerfields methods ? they seem very usefull but ive never tested any :headbanger:
|
| NorCalGreg |
10-19-2021 11:49 AM |
Arthur Stanley may indeed be the author of Explosive Horse...and Dan Geer wrote PRL.
I've seen, and tried and few of Gary Brakerfield's methods, Sharkey. Most are decent, but if the choice is between his methods and Pandy's--go with Pandy's work.
-NCG
|
| NorCalGreg |
10-19-2021 12:49 PM |
I read this statement somewhere recently:
***50% of all maiden sprints are won by the horse with 1 of the top-2 speed ratings in today's race***
Can this be true? There is one bit of info missing from this statement: Is this from the last race--last 2--all time, this distance, what?
Using the PLATINUM program, I simply loaded appx the last 9 or 10 days of Santa Anita data, opened any maiden sprints run in that time period, and sorted by speed. Platinum Speed avgs the last two Bris ratings, so the top horse has the highest avg in the field.
Using all surfaces and distances--they simply had to be maiden sprints-even dreaded 7F races.
The results of this quick test were surprising...I'm hoping someone will continue this and report back his findings at other tracks.
SANTA ANITA MAIDENS-- TOP PLATINUM SPEED
SUGAR SUGAR - OUT
OUBABE - 2ND
ALIGATO - $5.40
WARREN'S QUEEN BEE - 2ND
SO VERY SMART $4.40
SUE ETTA'S GHOST $8.60
AFFABLE - $6.20
PICK YOUR BID $8.20
TONY ANN - $3.60
SCREAM AND SHOUT - $11.80
Interesting...obviously bears further study
Who's up for it?
-NCG
|
| NorCalGreg |
10-19-2021 01:17 PM |
Also, yesterday's 1st at Parx there was this:
Claimed: Karen's Gem by Lake Scott (Home Team Stables and Sammy G. Stable) and Dustwhirl Wonder by Pino Michael (South View Stables)
DUSTWHIRL WONDER was the 2nd highest longshot (15-1) on the board--and claimed by the astute Michael Pino. Keep an eye on this one. They don't get claimed on a lark.
|
1 Attachment(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
(Post 2760950)
I read this statement somewhere recently:
***50% of all maiden sprints are won by the horse with 1 of the top-2 speed ratings in today's race***
Can this be true? There is one bit of info missing from this statement: Is this from the last race--last 2--all time, this distance, what?
Interesting...obviously bears further study
Who's up for it?
-NCG
|
Here's a quick look FL...8 maiden sprints, 5 won by 1 or 2 speed ratings, the other 3 were FTS. |
1 Attachment(s)
From my latest Bel model.....9 maiden sprints on dirt, 7 winners 1 or 2 last out SR, and the other 2 were FTS.
|
| NorCalGreg |
10-19-2021 07:06 PM |
BEST-FIVE MNR
Think we may have a spot play in the works, Tom. I like Finger Lakes since they don't have those pesky turf races to worry about.
I usually enter the Mnr. exacta contest at Horse Tourneys, but with only 3 entries showing, just not worth it. Costs $12 to buy in--and you have to beat out however many other players are in--to win maybe $40?
I just copy the Best-Five contenders right off the sheet, and generally do fairly well (when I do play)
Here's the Best-Five sheet I would have played, had there been more entries.
https://i.postimg.cc/JnYxdhq2/MNR-BE...DERS-10-19.png
|
| geroge.burns99 |
10-19-2021 08:55 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
(Post 2760982)
From my latest Bel model.....9 maiden sprints on dirt, 7 winners 1 or 2 last out SR, and the other 2 were FTS.
|
Hey Tom...How you like like using Google Sheets?
Any issues you run across?
Mike |
| cloud9 |
10-20-2021 11:25 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
(Post 2760950)
I read this statement somewhere recently:
***50% of all maiden sprints are won by the horse with 1 of the top-2 speed ratings in today's race***
Can this be true? There is one bit of info missing from this statement: Is this from the last race--last 2--all time, this distance, what?
Using the PLATINUM program, I simply loaded appx the last 9 or 10 days of Santa Anita data, opened any maiden sprints run in that time period, and sorted by speed. Platinum Speed avgs the last two Bris ratings, so the top horse has the highest avg in the field.
Using all surfaces and distances--they simply had to be maiden sprints-even dreaded 7F races.
The results of this quick test were surprising...I'm hoping someone will continue this and report back his findings at other tracks.
SANTA ANITA MAIDENS-- TOP PLATINUM SPEED
SUGAR SUGAR - OUT
OUBABE - 2ND
ALIGATO - $5.40
WARREN'S QUEEN BEE - 2ND
SO VERY SMART $4.40
SUE ETTA'S GHOST $8.60
AFFABLE - $6.20
PICK YOUR BID $8.20
TONY ANN - $3.60
SCREAM AND SHOUT - $11.80
Interesting...obviously bears further study
Who's up for it?
-NCG
|
Greg are you using the Platinum speed ratings or the Bris speed ratings an are you averaging the last two rating or using the best of the last two ratings ? |
Quote:
Originally Posted by geroge.burns99
(Post 2761014)
Hey Tom...How you like like using Google Sheets?
Any issues you run across?
Mike
|
Open Office |
1 Attachment(s)
To answer a couple of questions I have gotten, I was using the BRIS ratings, right of the summary page, whatever that is.
|
| NorCalGreg |
10-20-2021 12:39 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloud9
(Post 2761067)
Greg are you using the Platinum speed ratings or the Bris speed ratings an are you averaging the last two rating or using the best of the last two ratings ?
|
Hey Dennis:
PLATINUM shows the high of the last-2 Bris Speed...more effective than just using the last race SR only. If the last race was the higher of the last-2, then that would be listed. If the horse only has 1 race to his name-then that single rating would be used.
I misspoke yesterday--said Platinum avgs the last two, which of course, is incorrect.
TRAINER MOVES is a little more sophisticated. It takes the avg of the LAST-3 races. I haven't compared the effectiveness of one method vs the other, but I'm pretty sure avg of last-3 is the better rating.
I know you have the Platinum prog--perfectly fine to use the SR found there. Click and sort top-to-bottom, and there you are. |
| geroge.burns99 |
10-20-2021 01:42 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
(Post 2761071)
To answer a couple of questions I have gotten, I was using the BRIS ratings, right of the summary page, whatever that is.
|
by hand you enter stuff? |
| geroge.burns99 |
10-20-2021 05:39 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
(Post 2761111)
|
right or left?
:lol: |
| thaskalos |
10-21-2021 05:08 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by geroge.burns99
(Post 2761125)
right or left?
:lol:
|
Tom wants nothing to do with the left. |
| stuball |
10-21-2021 08:21 AM |
Hmmmm
With the left being wrong on everything who could blame him for not using the left :puke::puke::pound::pound::pound::headbanger::head banger:
|
| geroge.burns99 |
10-21-2021 08:51 AM |
:lol::lol::lol:
|
| cloud9 |
10-21-2021 01:33 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
(Post 2761082)
Hey Dennis:
PLATINUM shows the high of the last-2 Bris Speed...more effective than just using the last race SR only. If the last race was the higher of the last-2, then that would be listed. If the horse only has 1 race to his name-then that single rating would be used.
I misspoke yesterday--said Platinum avgs the last two, which of course, is incorrect.
TRAINER MOVES is a little more sophisticated. It takes the avg of the LAST-3 races. I haven't compared the effectiveness of one method vs the other, but I'm pretty sure avg of last-3 is the better rating.
I know you have the Platinum prog--perfectly fine to use the SR found there. Click and sort top-to-bottom, and there you are.
|
Greg is this how your explained how you use the maiden method in Platinum .
You take the best Platinum rating an if it has one or the last two best Bris ratings that would be the pick ?
PS. I tried sending a couple private messages to you but for some reason I dont think they went through so I posted here . |
| NorCalGreg |
10-21-2021 03:59 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloud9
(Post 2761268)
Greg is this how your explained how you use the maiden method in Platinum .
You take the best Platinum rating an if it has one or the last two best Bris ratings that would be the pick ?
PS. I tried sending a couple private messages to you but for some reason I dont think they went through so I posted here .
|
Actually, it's better to post here--other Pace-View'ers may have the same question.
The Platinum program shows the best of last-2 speed ratings--so there is nothing else for you to do. As Tom does--ignore races with more FTS than anything else. Hopefully you are saving your recent Bris data files, so you can test spot plays to find out where they work (or not).
-NCG |
| NorCalGreg |
10-21-2021 06:14 PM |
In this time of Covid/Biden, our city services are noticeably under par: Power went out almost all day Monday--then yesterday morning for a couple hours, and last night a couple more hours. I have LED lanterns hanging here inside the house, and I'm just going to leave them up. Our Refuse/Garbage company empties our bins...and manage to get MOST of the trash into their truck. What is spilled in the street--is still there. They just drive away and leave it. Hell happened to customer service???
I drove a paper-shred truck for 10 years. If I spilled one piece of paper--I got out and picked it up. Guess that was the old way of doing your job.
Anyhoo...a spot play I came up with in the new SPEED DEMONS, think Steve named it--
FADED GLORY
--On lead or within 2 lengths at first call, on lead or within 4 lengths at second call, and finished 9 lengths or more back.
--Horse is back in 21 days or less.
--Rider switch today
-T/J combined win % = 20% together.
The "back in 21 days" requirement indicates it is not for classy stakes races--generally fits the claiming races. Usually 1 or 2 or none per day at most tracks.
I played in a HT contest that included the 7th @ Woodbine, but unbelievably I didn't play this:
https://i.postimg.cc/PxwJBGNd/Faded-Glory-spot-play.png
7TH RACE WOX Old Secrets $40.50 $19.70 $15.70
|
| NorCalGreg |
10-21-2021 06:41 PM |
There is a button (Maiden 2nd start) that, when clicked shows any maidens with only one career race. It's not a spot play, it only alerts you that there is a horse making his 2nd start. What to look for? Well, the 1st rule in "Faded Glory" above, is an excellent start:
--On lead or within 2 lengths at first call, on lead or within 4 lengths at second call, and finished 9 lengths or more back.
Many times a horse's 1st race is just a workout...look for any early speed, middle moves, or a sudden late surge, etc. The trainer wants to give the horse a live race and get him used to the the sometimes scary excitement and noises, and so on.
With FTS...I don't really care about pedigree or anything that isn't in my data and PP's. Really, I just let the ML maker handicap first-timers. If there is one that the ML maker has listed at 3-1 or less, I simply pass the race, or in a horizontal wager I'll just add in that maiden. Especially at a track I'm not that familiar with.
I really believe that if one focused on 2nd time starters, there is a nice profit to be had.
|
| geroge.burns99 |
10-21-2021 07:15 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
(Post 2761314)
[B] In this time of Covid/Biden, our city services are noticeably under par: Power went out almost all day Monday--then yesterday morning for a couple hours, and last night a couple more hours. I have LED lanterns hanging here inside the house, and I'm just going to leave them up. Our Refuse/Garbage company empties our bins...and manage to get MOST of the trash into their truck. What is spilled in the street--is still there. They just drive away and leave it. Hell happened to customer service???
I drove a paper-shred truck for 10 years. If I spilled one piece of paper--I got out and picked it up. Guess that was the old way of doing your job.
|
Greg....Why the power outages?
Here in NY, it goes out in summer when its over 95
Your in mid 60's.........????
Our garbage men used to do that too......
One day I filmed them with my phone and yelled.....Good Morning
They never did it again.....
Mike |
| All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:25 PM. |
|
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
|
|
