Tampa Bay Derby thoughts
 

I recognize :6: Tapit Trice has some raw talent and could develop into one of the better 3-year-olds, but there are things not to like. He's a slow breaker with no graded stakes experience and no two-turn experience as well. The field he beat at Gulfstream in his eight-length win is also questionable in quality, as the fourth-place Hard to Handle couldn't hit the board in a FL-bred allowance in his next start.

With most of the public on Tapit Trice, his 8/5 morning line odds might fall to even money, which hardly seems fair. Yes, Tapit Trice could crush the field. He could also disappoint.

The Sam F. Davis runner-up :4: Groveland possesses good tactical speed and moved into a fast pace. On the far turn, he did need to stop momentarily when he lacked room, but he kept on nicely in the stretch to pick up second by a little more than a length.

If nothing else, Groveland should find himself in the perfect stalking position around third or fourth and a few lengths off the lead. He is 6-1 on the morning line and 9/2 or higher sounds fair on this improving colt.

The gelding :2: Classic Car Wash made his move in the Sam F. Davis through the middle part of the field and in between horses, and he gets credit for that since most inexperienced runners want to rally in the clear and away from traffic. The Tampa Bay surface is also known as speed favoring and he closed into that to hit the board anyway, although he did receive a fast pace, so there are two ways of looking at his stretch rally.

I still prefer Groveland's stalking style, but in a pace meltdown situation, Classic Car Wash has a shot, especially if Tapit Trice breaks slowly and finds traffic. Classic Car Wash's 8-1 morning line odds are likely to hold too, or even drift a little upwards towards 10-1.

Those are the three horses who look best in the race. How about your thoughts?

In 3 year old Derby preps, it is my responsibility as a horse racing fan to root for geldings to win everything.

i'm a big fan of this prep race. if the track is fast and there is talent in the race it's gonna come back fast.

if pletcher's horse is as good as what they paid for it, 142 is going has be in his wheelhouse. how much does the horse win by if he does go that fast? what if he goes 141 change. you can't rule out a 5-10L victory.

hard to make sense of things underneath for many reasons but if tapit does bottom the field and win by this much almost always a longshot that sits and closes will get in the triple.

almost 4 horses will be overlooked because of troubled trips last out as well.

and if pletch comes up empty, the race could easily light up the tote board with big numbers. most of the field seems like they're within 2L of one another

Three tosses, the :4::5: and :12:.

The speed: :8: Dreaming of Kona: Know what you are getting here. Three bullets in the last 3 works, the last being 45 and 3. :11: Zydeceaux another one that likes the front. Neither one looks like they will be around at the end unless the track helps them.

The :4::9::10: and :12: will try to be close to the pace. Two of them are tosses and the :10: saw some of these and wanted no part of it. :9: is the other Pletcher and can take $, but not mine.

The :2: Classic Car Wash just sort of kept running in his last. Not impressive at all.

The :1: Lord Miles gets Paco and can trip out in this race.

:7: Freedom Road Cheep and I sort of like him. Yep Class is not there and his two routes look horrible. Both were troubled and think he is better than those races.

:6: Tapit Trice has done nothing wrong, but 6/5 or what ever over bet price he will be is just wrong to bet.

:3: Classic Legacy Second route, second off a layoff and got into position in his last. Improves and is right there. At 6/1 is a bet.

Tapit's race to lose. Interesting that :4:,:5: and :11: appear to not be nominated at this time. The :7:'s worst race is the one with no lasix and it comes off today. Only so-so works from the :2:,:5:,:9:,:10: and :12: coming in. The :1: (blinkers back off after failed try) and :12: are trained by Joseph who is now under the microscope and history says when this happens, trainers seem to hit a slump. The :9: gets blinkers on with the hope of improving concentration and may finish a little closer to Tapit this time, is a must use underneath for me and probably use the :1: and 1:10: with the :9: to fill trifecta, hoping one of them can bounce back.

Been a bit of a crazy Derby prep season with a number of meltdown paces and horses coming from last to first to either win or make up the entire Trifecta.

This race looks quite a bit different in that not many want to be on the lead in here.

7 horses come in off the earlier Derby prep in the Sam F Davis ran here at this track and this exact same distance. Not sure what all to really take from that one as the winner and favorite from that race aren't here.

:6: Tapit Trice certainly looks like a standout amongst these and he'll likely be odds on or even bet down to a possible 4/5.

Likely just take a stab at the :11: Zydeceaux in here. Led the Sammy for quite a while before tiring late at 43/1. Should be another big price, and doubtful the tactics will change. Tampa has been a tough track for deep closers to get home, so he could well be in the mix late yet again.

I took a quick peek at this race and it seems like there’s an awful lot of early speed.
So with Pletcher’s horse having a bit more development than the others my pre-tote picks are as follows:
Keying :6: in the top 2 slots with 5 others in the verticals: :2:, :3:, :4:, :9:, :12:
Watch the tote action especially on those long shots!

GL
.

Saez gave up his ride on Secret Oath to ride here. A 1.3 million dollar son of tapit that breaks out of the gate like a station wagon. This one's not for me... I don't care if he beats me. Most likely winner? sure, but I landed on the :4:

:4: Groveland - Centeno gave this horse a terrible ride in the Davis. I'm drawing a line in the sand at 6/1 for this spot. At 9/2 it just feels like flipping coins for action.

:2: Classic Car Wash: last out... sat in deep, luke warm around the turn, and robbed the bank of all the pennies. Not exactly my juke Box Hero.

I'm headed out to go food shopping and stopping at my otb for fun.

4,11 / 4,6,8,11 / 2,4,6,8,9,11

GL EVERYONE

Only liking 3 horses in this race and to be honest could come down to these horses at the end imo

Below are the horses number then morning line odds and right below that is my "Fair Odds" and this is a little project that I have been working on for a bit projecting odds for today's races; 2 projections are show below PO#1 and PO#2 which one or the other seems to be right on or around the final odds the horse goes off at in my testing

The favourite #6 (like today) sometimes get a higher odds that what others might put it as which in this case I project a 6-1 4-1 even though that horse should be 8/5 or lower

See what happens I am still in the testing periods but excited to see what happens in the near future

:4: 6/1
Fair Odds 26/17

:6: 8/5
Fair Odds 6/4

:9: 9/2
Fair Odds 19/13

after much thought i'm going to use the 2 as my key underneath the 6 in the trips.

6/2/all
6/all/2

:4:/:6:/:3:

Exactas. Keying the :4:

Way late to the party, like :9::10: here, also using :1::7:. Playing a tri with those under :6: and some exactas without the fave.

Hooo boy.

On a track where it is hard to close, :6:Tapit Trice brought the goods.

it didn't even matter that he was left in the gate looking disinterested.

slowish, but there was no need to put the pedal to the floor.

Matt Carothers made me chuckle with his comment about the winner after the race. The horse was "clueless".