- - Which Long Shot
( http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=159064)
Which Long Shot
To profit from exotic betting requires a mix of contenders and long shots. Picking the right long shots is critical. We all know the frequency and payback is directly correlated to the odds. I believe it is necessary to consider the longest ones possible to show a profit. Unfortunately, they seldom hit the board so run outs are long and painful.
Dave Schwartz in his study "Percentages and Possibilities, 2012", analyzed 90,020 horses with a morning line 15:1 or higher. They won 3.3% of the time and lost 35% of the money bet on them to win. Of course, one must be super selective when picking horses in this category. The only way to tell if your "good ones" are really good, is to keep track of both your picks and the ones you do not pick. You will quickly learn if you have any skill in finding those with possibility.
Looking backwards, I think I may be able separate possible ones from the impossible ones. But the proof is in picking them going forward. These long shots need not necessarily win. In exactas, trifectas, and supers one of these long shots coming in to place or show can be profitable. Races with less than 7 entries before scratches will not be considered. In cases of scratches, I'll correct the ML to 120%.
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7/2/20
Bel 2
Maybe = PP#3
Pass = PP#4
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BTP 5
Maybe =#6
Pass= #4,#7,#9,#11
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Ind 3
Maybe = #7, #11
Pass = #2,#8,#10,#12
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Bel 5
Maybe #3
Pass #2,#4
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Elp 4
Maybe #3, #8
Pass #1
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Ind 4
Maybe #4
Pass #1, #3
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Ind 8
Maybe #4
Pass #8, #9
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Los Al 7
Pass #8, #9, #10
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Maybe Horses
11 bets (4 hit board)
Bel 5---#3 -------, -------,6.50
Elp 4---#3 41.60, 19.60, 7.00
Elp 4---#8 ------, 6.60, 3.20
Ind 5---#1 ------, 8.60, 6.00
Win 41.60-22.00 = +19.60
Place 34.80 - 22.00 = +12.80
Show 22.70 - 22.00 = +0.70
Pass Horses
32 bets (3 hit board)
Bel 6-----#1 -------, -------, -6.50
Ind 5-----#2, 43.80, 19.60, 10.40
LA 7------#7 -------, -------, 15.60
Win 43.80-64.00 = minus 20.20
Place 19.60 - 64.00 = minus 44.40
Show 32.20-64.00 = minus 31.80
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Robert Fischer |
07-02-2020 08:01 PM |
Great thread idea.
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TheOracle |
07-02-2020 10:09 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aner
(Post 2626669)
7/2/20
Bel 2
Maybe = PP#3
Pass = PP#4
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Hey Aner
You passed on #4 @Bel but he came in 3rd paying $12.20 to show which was actually the biggest price of the day
Code:
1 2020-07-02 2nd race 4 Curlins Legacy (NY) Claiming One Mile P J Kelly 20/1# Turf Firm 0.0 0.0 12.2
When you stop to consider that the average win price today was a mere $6 bucks and 8 out of 9 win prices were under $8 your pick was pretty impressive
Code:
RowNum: PgmNum: Win$: Place$: Show$: Dist: RaceCond:TrackCond: Fieldof:Race#: Date: ML -----Horse------ -----Trainer------
1 1 6.8 3.2 2.2 1 M Mdn SpclDirt Fast 7 1st 07-02-2020 2/1# Sharp Starr (NY) H DePaz
2 8 3.8 2.9 2.7 1 M Clm Turf Firm 7 2nd 07-02-2020 9/5# Catch a Cab (NY) M J Maker
3 1 7.6 4.2 3.2 1 1/16 MMdn SpclDirt Fast 7 3rd 07-02-2020 2/1# Blackjack Davey (NY) L Rice
4 5 5.3 3.3 2.6 6 Furl Clm Dirt Fast 8 4th 07-02-2020 9/5# Flashpackinbarbie (NY) J R Abreu
5 6 8.8 3.7 3.0 7 Furl Clm Dirt Fast 9 5th 07-02-2020 2/1# Stay Fond (KY) M Miceli
6 7 4.9 2.9 2.7 1 1/16 MAlw Op CDirt Fast 8 6th 07-02-2020 6/5# Creed (KY) C R McGaughey III
7 9 7.1 4.1 3.9 1 M Alw Op CDirt Fast 8 7th 07-02-2020 5/2# Complexity (KY) C C Brown
8 1 3.0 2.4 2.1 1 M Stakes Turf Firm 6 8th 07-02-2020 4/5# Fifty Five (NY) C C Brown
9 4 7.0 4.7 3.8 1 1/8 M Mdn Clm Turf Firm 10 9th 07-02-2020 10/1# Apollos Abraxas (NY) K Laudati
8 Prices under $8 88.8% Avg Win $ 6
ML Odds Win/Att Pct Win Amt Cost P / L Pct Rtrn per $1
5/2 1/3 33.3% 7.1 6 1.1 18%
2/1 3/3 100% 23.2 6 17.2 286%
*All/5 4/4 100% 17 8 9 112%
*All/5 = (1/5,2/5,,,,9/5) any Morning Line ending with 5
Looks like a setup for the weekend to have some huge prices for the upcoming holiday
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TheOracle |
07-03-2020 10:04 AM |
Right now you are just breaking even with his Claimers at Belmont overall
Code:
1 06-03-2020 10th race 4 Our Stormin Norman (KY) Clm Dirt Fast 6 Furl M Kantarmaci 8/1# S 3.8
2 06-05-2020 1st race 1 Booby Trap (KY) Clm Dirt Muddy 1 1/16 MM Kantarmaci 30/1#
3 06-05-2020 1st race 7 Inclunation (KY) Clm Dirt Muddy 1 1/16 MM Kantarmaci 12/1#
4 06-05-2020 3rd race 12 Majestic Affair (KY) Clm Dirt Muddy 6.5 FurlM Kantarmaci 15/1#
5 06-07-2020 3rd race 2 Cotton Candy Cutie (NY) Clm Dirt Fast 6 Furl M Kantarmaci 15/1# S 11.8
6 06-11-2020 3rd race 7 Dr. Deveras Way (KY) Clm Dirt Good 6.5 FurlM Kantarmaci 6/1# P 14.2 7.7
7 06-12-2020 2nd race 8 Bertranda (NY) Clm Dirt Fast 6 Furl M Kantarmaci 9/5# P 3.4 2.4
8 06-12-2020 3rd race 6 Reed Kan (FL) Clm Dirt Fast 6.5 FurlM Kantarmaci 10/1# W 10.8 6.8 4.7
9 06-19-2020 3rd race 1 Booby Trap (KY) Clm Dirt Fast 6.5 FurlM Kantarmaci 10/1#
10 06-19-2020 3rd race 1A Talent Scout (KY) Clm Dirt Fast 6.5 FurlM Kantarmaci 10/1#
11 06-19-2020 6th race 5 Jump for Joy (PA) Clm Dirt Fast 6 Furl M Kantarmaci 8/1# P 8.6 4.6
12 06-21-2020 4th race 2 More Than Striking (FL) Clm Dirt Fast 1 M M Kantarmaci 7/2#
13 06-25-2020 2nd race 10 Our Stormin Norman (KY) Clm Dirt Fast 6.5 FurlM Kantarmaci 6/1#
14 06-26-2020 1st race 6 Dr. Deveras Way (KY) Clm Dirt Fast 6.5 FurlM Kantarmaci 6/1# P 5.2 5.7
15 06-26-2020 4th race 5 Cobra Sophie (ON) Clm Turf Firm 6 Furl M Kantarmaci 15/1#
16 07-02-2020 5th race 5 Cotton Candy Cutie (NY) Clm Dirt Fast 7 Furl M Kantarmaci 10/1# P 4.0 3.2
ML Odds Strts 1st 2nds 3rds Win % Win $ Cost Return % Return
all odds 16 1 5 2 6.2% $10.8 $32 $-21.2 -67%
WPS % WPS $ Cost Return % Rtrn Shw $
50% $96.9 $96 $0.90 0% 43.9
Kantarmaci has these Claimers today
Code:
pick07-03-20201 07-03-2020 2nd race 5 Cobra Sophie (ON) Claiming One Mile M Kantarmaci 20/1# Turf
pick07-03-20202 07-03-2020 2nd race 11 Beach Dreaming (KY) Claiming One Mile M Kantarmaci 5/1# Turf
pick07-03-20203 07-03-2020 5th race 1 Reed Kan (FL) Claiming Six Furlongs M Kantarmaci 8/1# Dirt
I have my doubts about his Turfers but #1 Reed Kan (FL) might be in the money at a pop!!!
Let's see if he can hit the board today with these at a price!!!
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TheOracle |
07-03-2020 10:22 AM |
Noda has one that might pop today at Belmont
Code:
pick07-03-20201 07-03-2020 6th race 2 Super Twenty Seven (KY) Alw Opt Clm One And One SixtO Noda 30/1# Dirt
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...24#post2627024
Let's see if he can hit the board today at a price!!!
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castaway01 |
07-03-2020 10:48 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aner
(Post 2626832)
Maybe Horses
11 bets (4 hit board)
Bel 5---#3 -------, -------,6.50
Elp 4---#3 41.60, 19.60, 7.00
Elp 4---#8 ------, 6.60, 3.20
Ind 5---#1 ------, 8.60, 6.00
Win 41.60-22.00 = +19.60
Place 34.80 - 22.00 = +12.80
Show 22.70 - 22.00 = +0.70
Pass Horses
32 bets (3 hit board)
Bel 6-----#1 -------, -------, -6.50
Ind 5-----#2, 43.80, 19.60, 10.40
LA 7------#7 -------, -------, 15.60
Win 43.80-64.00 = minus 20.20
Place 19.60 - 64.00 = minus 44.40
Show 32.20-64.00 = minus 31.80
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What we don't know if you are handicapping these horses. Actually, I don't even need to know that. Just remember that this is a very small sample and you could lose 50 in a row. I'm not a "the sample has to be a million races" guy, but since I don't know the criteria I would think you'd need to do this for a while before you can bet with any confidence.
If you continue to do this and get a large enough sample that you can analyze it, the logical thing to do is break down whether you're better in certain types of races, on turf or dirt, at certain tracks, with different field sizes, etc. Then you can concentrate on what is working best for you and refine it.
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Lrl 5
Maybe #10
Pass #4, #5, #7, #11, #12
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Bel 4
Maybe #10
Pass #5, #6, #9
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Lrl 6
Maybe #6
Pass #1, #8, #11, #12
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Lrl 7
Maybe #7, #15
Pass #8, #10
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Robert Fischer |
07-03-2020 04:26 PM |
i feel like Bel r7 could have some prices underneath
lot of wildcards in here
some good trainers and jocks w/ long shots
:2: looks like a sprinter in the flesh. FTS Bond
:4: looks ok also
:6: is 'cold' on the board, good trainer
7 11 12 / 246 / 7 11 12 / 246 = dime super
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TheOracle |
07-03-2020 04:28 PM |
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Bel 7
Maybe #4
Pass #2, #5
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