How to.......???
 

Looking to develop a odds line based on a Power Rating and Morning Line


How would YOU do it with this info...


#......ML.......Pwr #

1......20.........64
2......15.........67
4......2.5........66
5......12.........59
6......12.........77
7......2...........87
8......20.........42
9......6...........49
10....8...........49


Thank you

For the morning line first, you need to convert it to a 100% line.

1 = 1/(20+1) = 4.76%
2 = 1/(15+1) = 6.25%
4 = 1/(2.5+1) = 28.57%
5 = 1/(12+1) = 7.69%
6 = 1/(12+1) = 7.69%]
7 = 1/(2+1) = 33.33%
8 = 1/(20+1) = 4.76%
9 = 1/(6+1) = 14.29%
10 = 1/(8+1) = 11.11%

Total: 118.46%

Usually this would be a little higher but the scratch kept it down a bit.

To convert to 100% line, use this: 100/118.46 = 0.8442

1 = 4.76%*.8442 = 4.01% = 1 / .0402 - 1 = 23.94 to 1
2 = 6.25%*.8442 = 5.27% = 1 / .0527 - 1 = 17.98 to 1

the rest look like this in the end:

4 = 3.15 to 1
5 = 14.40 to 1
6 = 14.40 to 1
7 = 2.55 to 1
8 = 23.94 to 1
9 = 7.29 to 1
10 = 9.66 to 1

I'll hit the power rating in a few...

This should help with the power rating:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...3&postcount=26

From there, it is just a matter of how much you want to weigh the two different sets of data.

WOW...that was great...

and

I was thinking you hated me....


Thank you CJ

No problem

Of course I do not hate you. That is silly. You're a horseplayer.

I did the morning line stuff on the fly so the math isn't guaranteed. Of course I'd set it up in a spreadsheet or computer program for simplicity, not too tough to do. If you post how you decide to blend them I could make a template in a few minutes, then you just enter the ML and power rating for each horse and it spits out an odds line.

:jump:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...2&postcount=10

That is an even better example for the power ratings. Wish I could find the spreadsheet that used to be posted. I have it around somewhere, will look tonight.

that would be nice...just plug in numbers...

I have the old LineMaker.xls file which I believe is your creation or came from either here or the old PaceFigs site. I am not sure if that's the one you're talking about.

Yep, that is the one. Feel free to post it if you don't mind, would save me the time of finding it.

https://www.amazon.com/Winning-Thoro.../dp/B01FKRV8A8

Winning-Thoroughbred Strategies covers a lot of this stuff- power ratings, odds lines, etc....

https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/zSoAA...a4/s-l1600.jpg

Here ya go.


WTS is one of my favorite books. I modified his method a bit and coded it into Handifast, so the S-P, C-C, and Power Numbers are close to his version.

What cutoff would use for a contender? How important is a point? Just a rough guide of what you think is relevant for the power numbers.

Thats something i'd like to figure out....

My style play is to look at top 4 contenders......

On the Value Capper thread , MP makes a "VALUE" line cutoff....

I like to get one too..

Appreciate this guys...

:kiss:

Power Number is one of the top significant factors in HF...