gifthorse
 

I could use a gift horse!!!! PCON

And I sure would not look it in the mouth.

1. Bet the horse at minimum odds of 12-1

2. It is based on the even finish theory. Only look at the horses last 3 running lines. It appears to have started some time around 1950 in Ireland or England by people who would watch and keep track by pen and pencil of the horses finish.

3. Look at the finish position and the position of the horse at the point of call before the finish. The finish position does not matter. The horse could have been second or 10th. Next look at lenghts behind the winner.

4. Use any horse that ran an even finish which is defined by the last two call. It cannot change more than one number. Lenghts behind cannot change more than one.

5. Here is an example from Woodbine R 8 on Sunday June 24th which was the million dollar queens plate. The winners last race on may 23rd looked like 1,1 and 1,1.25 and the win price was 32.40 The second place horse race 2 back on may 13 looked like 1,.5 and 1 1.25 and it paid 16.30 to place. Not sure of the exacta.

Guess the theory is that the beaten horse ran just as well to finish the race as the winner even if it may have finished 8th and 15 lgs behind as long as it maintained the same distance behind the winner and it did not change more than one number. Finish position could be 8/7 8/6 8/8 Beaten lengths could be 10/11 10/9 10/12. It may also be used as a way to color a horses ability. After the horse ran this type of race the trainer may place it in a class or type of race next out where the horse has no chance to win so it will appear to run very poor which may have been the connections plan and then put it back where it has a chance and will win or run second at huge odds.

I think I first saw it in the late 80's. It started with very simple rules then was enhanced which may not have helped. It was no longer published after it went to the computer program. Like a lot of things once the computer/smart guys get a hold of it they seem to make it too complicated with so many rules it no longer is effective. Not sure how many plays per week at a track but it does appear a large percentage of longshot horses that win at 12-1 and above show this pattern. Sorry for the long message if anyone is annoyed by it's lengths. When you may be bored take a look at the form and they should appear.

Thank you, Dutchboy. Interesting, and the coloring theory makes sense to me.

Not sure what the finish and beaten examples mean. 8/6 and 10/12 are seperated by two. What am I reading incorrectly?

Do any of the past three races count, so long as they meet the "didn't change by more than one" rule? And any idea why improving by more than one eliminates the horse?

Thanks again.

Hard to describe but easy to see in the form but here goes. Any of the last 3 races can be used. Look at those pacelines. I found an excellent example in race 8 today 7-14-07 at Hollywood. Look at the #3 horse Tiago. Mdn race on 1-21-07 the pp shows it finished 2nd, a hd behind. The point of call before the finish showed the horse 2nd and a 1/2 length behind. The important thing is that the position changed no more than 1. It could be 3rd to 2nd or 3rd to 4th or same at 3 and 3. If the horse finished 3rd but was 5th or first, pass. If the horse finishes 3 lgs behind it is allowed to have been between 2-4 lgs behind at the previous point of call. It seems like it happens more often within the last 2 races.

The race example mentioned above shows Tiago is second in the mdn race used for this example. The next race he is put in a G2 race and runs 7th which may help explain why he then wins 4-07-07 at odds of 29.3 I guess going from a mdn 48k to a G2 could qualify as "coloring or concealing" the current ability of the horse. I assume the connections have an idea how good the horse may run.

Same race as above. Hol r8 today. Look at number 6 souvenir slew. Look at the last two points of call for the races on both 3-14 and 2-17. Then look at the race on 3-30 and you will see the horse win at odds of 24-1 Wierd why the horse would all of a sudden go wire to wire to win after not appearing to have much ability by just looking at past betting odds and not being close to winning it's first two races.

The system might work with an ADW where you could place wagers in advance based on being able to load a specfied min odd. It think the ADW that advertises on this board might be an option if they had a better selection of tracks.

At lunch today the slip of paper in the fortune cookie read "If you can't accept losing, you can't win." True story.

Thanks, Dutchboy
 

Gonna monitor this one at some tracks for awhile. Should be fun :) . Might be profitable! :jump:

How about authors Tom Console and Len Cz (short for long Polish name): Are these two also pseudonyms for Dave Powers, or do they exist? I keep getting stuff from Console through the mail. Most recently, I received the Exacta Selector. Any report on this one?

No comment on any of his handicapping products, but, as far as I know, Tom Console is a separate individual (and a member of PA) based in Scottsdale, Arizona.

Len Czyzniejewski appears to be from Las Vegas, and has a multi-faceted result on Google, including writing film reviews and books on poker, in addition to his work with handicapping.

Today in R9 at Hol look at the pp's of #1 Bright Prediction. Won last race at 85-1 Two races back it ran the even style finish.

Today in R10 at Delaware look at the pp's of #3 Hal's My Hope. On feb 3rd at gp it won at 108-1 Then look at the pp 3 races previous on 12-19 at crc you will see the even style finish.

I just received the RPM catalog a couple of days ago. I agree there is some slim pickings. I've had my eye on the "Pace Evaluation," which uses Sartin-like ratings, and the "Money-Per-Race" software packages. Any critiques on any of these?

Race 3 today at Del Mar. # 7 Freedom Class wins and pays 133.80

Check the pp's for last two points of call for the race 3 back on june 29 at Hollywood.

Yesterday at DMR in R4 the #6 qualified: won and paid 40.60

I believe the 3,4,7,8 also qualified on the "even finish" and the 4,7,8 would have been plays as they were all over 12-1. Still, betting $8 to get $40 is a pretty nice return.

How did that bomb qualify today 3 back - I didn't get the pp's today. What were it's qualifying calls? Only "even finish" or were there others at 12-1 or higher? Cho doesn't win often, that's for sure.

I was just curious. There is a guy named Dave Venturo who got a bunch of 9 ratings from Phillips newsletter. I ran some of his methods which underperformed the claims (what a shock huh?). Connections Handicapping, JOT system, Quick Pick Winners, Solid Gold Handicapping, KISS Handicapping, Consenus Overlay, etc.

I was wondering what others success with this guy was, and whether Dave Venturo and Dave Powers were the same guy.

That's the problem with backfitting in that manner. You don't know how many qualifers there were in any given race.

Reminds me of when I bought my first Town Car, I never knew there were so many till I started looking for them.