Jason Kassa Handicaps the Belmont Stakes
 

Belmont Stakes MASTER CLASS INFORMATION FOR YOU:
TLDR: Justify Racehorse will win handily. Vino Rosso is the clear second best and Tenfold also has a chance to 'put it all together' to run 2nd, but there are actually seven contenders for 2nd-4th in a #SUPERFECTA that could hold some value in the Belmont Stakes.

DETAILED ANALYSIS: The 'race for 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place in the Belmont Stakes will be decided by a 'Loser's Game' and not a 'Winner's Game'. :coffee:
-Sure... Perhaps Vino Rosso will fire and 'win' 2nd.
Tenfold has some fringe potential of 'winning' a runner's-up placing as well. He was third-best in the Preakness, but faltered a bit late. He also faltered just a touch at the end of the Arkansas Derby in spite of the pace carrying horses late. Unreliable, but also has potential to 'win' 2nd...

But failing a race where Vino and/or Tenfold 'put it all together', - second place in this Belmont is going to be a 'Loser's Game'. In a loser's game we may have 7 contenders (Vino Rosso, Tenfold, Blended Citizen, Hofburg, Free Drop Billy, Gronkowski, Restoring Hope) and 5 or 6 members of that group will 'lose' 2nd. The only 'non-loser', (or the best trip out of the couple of 'non-loser's) will get 2nd by default. The key to value in a #SUPERFECTA will be sorting those horses out.
Vino Rosso is a 'key' in this group. He is the best horse in the group, and his grinding style ensures that he will not 'lose' a placing due to contending. He's not going to do any of the work. He's not going to contend with Justify at any point. He's going to grind along. Key Justify Racehorse 1st, and Key Vino Rosso 2nd and 3rd on separate #SUPERFECTA tickets. :ThmbUp:

RUNDOWN OF EACH INDIVIDUAL HORSE:

:1: JUSTIFY - He's going to win in uncontested fashion. This is a once-in-a-generation talent. This is a LeBron James, or a Bo Jackson, or a Ken Griffey Jr.. He had health problems (minor suregery, hoof cracks/bruises) that delayed his career debut until Feb 3yo. He aggravated his hoof in the Santa Anita Derby. He aggravated it badly in his great Kentucky Derby. Following the Derby, he had reconstructive hoof repair. His condition deteriorated somewhat, and but he gutted-out a win in the Preakness Stakes at about 80% condition. His condition has improved dramatically and he has had two works and three weeks rest. Not only is he much the best contender in the Belmont Stakes, and sitting on a career-best performance, he also will either be the controlling speed or sitting just off a cheap speed.

:2: FREE DROP BILLY - Not a top talent, but his style fits the runner-up profile. He will try to hit the board. He's a big enough price to include underneath. He may be too slow to run 2nd or 3rd but he may also get 2nd or 3rd by default if he runs his good race and inherits the position.

:3: BRAVAZO - A brave horse, but a bad bet for 2nd or 3rd. He was fourth-best in the Preakness in spite of finishing second, and will be an underlay. He is a danger to himself of trying to win, thus hurting his chances of surviving the 'Loser's Game' for the runner-up positions.

:4: HOFBURG - Similar to Free Drop Billy but some tempting 'potential', and much worse odds. He also has a chance to survive the Loser's Game. Excellent Mdn score. Dream-trip 2nd in Fla Derby while not really moving forward. Traffic in the Derby, but he got a belated trip into closer-friendly late flow. He did show good energy. He won the gallop-out but part of that was jockey frustration from being bottled up while having enough horse to finish 4th or 5th. #GrudginglyInclude Hofburg in spite of his poor value.

:5: RESTORINGHOPE - Hasn't yet proven that he belongs here, but hasn't proven otherwise either. If he doesn't try to win he may get 2nd,3rd,4th (more likely 3rd or 4th). I liked his Wood in that he was 'herded' into the first turn, relatively close to the pace, and then galloped out well, but it was not a 'great' effort by any means. Good price. Attractive include for 3rd/4th. Maybe 2nd as well if you go coverage-crazy. Some risk that he'll be misused or too cheap and eliminate himself.

:6: GRONKOWSKI - Hasn't proven that he doesn't belong in the 'Loser's Game' for 2nd/3rd/4th. Price isn't great, but has to be included. Distance is not a worry; He would have zero chance at a Mile in the United States, but as stated he fits here at a 1.5Miles.

:7: TENFOLD - Was 3rd best in the Preakness. Wasn't clear, but he may have had a slight chance to win had he not faltered in the final 1/16th. Worrisome that he also faltered slightly late in the Arkansas Derby as kind as it was to the late-flow. I suppose he is the most attractive alternative to Justify, but that seems like fool's gold. Include 2nd/3rd/4th. He's a risk to eliminate himself, while at the same time being one of the only horses that has a chance to 'win 2nd'.

:8: VINO ROSSO - The clear 2nd best in the Belmont Stakes. Key him 2nd and 3rd in your superfecta tickets.

:9: NOBLE INDY - Cheaper sort who figures to eliminate himself through his style. He's a slight risk to run 2nd/3rd if the pace is extremely forward-favoring and soft, but I'm relegating him to 4th or worse. You can't cover every possibility and I'm not a fan of this horse.

:10: BLENDED CITIZEN - Cheaper sort, but Doug O'Neill has this one in good condition. It sounds like a negative, but it's a good thing that amazingly this horse has NEVER done any 'work' in ANY of his ten career starts. Use him 2nd/3rd/4th.

GOOD LUCK, enjoy a nice day of racing, and maybe a little history in the Triple Crown.

Robert,

Thank you for posting this!

Aloha,

Geoff

Will do. I don't particularily "like" him over Tenfold or Bravazo yet don't disagree with his high ranking. That just means he's my obvious cover/copy bet horse when I move Bravazo to 3 and 4.

I'm also thinking Blendid C in 4th. If second or 3rd, only out of hedging.

I'm assuming he is Jason Kassa and Robert Fischer is a pseudonym (aka Bobby Fischer).

That's correct. :ThmbUp:

I guess I'm obviously a loser as I'll be taking Tenfold.

I think Andy Serling said Tenfold is his alternate. He's a handicapper I have a lot of respect for. His reasoning was along the same thoughts as I had after watching the Preakness enough times while attempting o decipher through the fog. Tenfold may have had a chance at one point in the Preakness to win. He took first-run on Bravazo, Tenfold just happened to switch to the wrong lead and lug in a little behind Justify.

I am using Tenfold, I think he has just as much or better chance as Bravazo at 2-3x the odds.

Good work. Thanks.

Robert - Good analysis. I linked Vino as well. Missed the super when I didn't think to key him fourth. Never occurred to me that the tri or exact would pay that much so I was sitting on my hands. :mad:

Was fortunate to have the super for 30cents with Vino backed up in the 4th slot.
Would have been nicer 2nd or 3rd for $1.

Kind of wish he hadn't 'tried' so hard on the turn, but he may not have gotten 3rd even if he had been more conservative.

Was fortunate that the dime payed about $105 because I did not have the long shot in the Manhattan Stakes or the long shot (was his name 'Still having fun'?) in the earlier race. And I didn't bet Prince Lucky in the 2nd or 3rd race where I liked him at big odds.

Didn't play very heavy, and a lot of zigging when I should have zagged, but the superfecta in the Belmont brought me back to about evens.

Between Beyer and Serling, it was the annual kiss of death :kiss:

Beyer and Serling
 

both handicappers I have utmost respect for.

I can be a real 'know-it-all', but I take time to listen to Beyer or Serling preview big races.


Tenfold was the horse you were supposed to take out of the Preakness (in addition to Justify). Assuming he comes out of the race well and continues to move forward, he could still turn out to be a force, once he learns to put an 'exclamation point' on his races. Took Gun Runner a while to figure it all out...

Mid-summer races should be fun as well.

I can't remember the last time either of those guys hit in a big race. I'm not a pessimist or trying to be annoying either. They're like Watchmaker at this point, I know they are smart but it doesn't seem to translate into any winners in top races in a long while.

I'll sing their praises if they get a big Travers winner or something of the like.

Andy Serling - has a nice pick pretty much every week. Sometimes several a week. He's very in tune to the competitiveness of the fields in his New York circuit and he does well at pointing out when the odds don't jibe with the relative abilities.
He's honest, and when a big race isn't a good betting race he won't place it on a pedestal. I guess that's my only 'complaint' with Serling.

Andy Beyer - I wish we got to hear his thoughts more often. Not sure if my memory is true here, but I'm giving him credit for Cloud Computing (and generally betting against Always Dreaming) in the Preakness last year. I'm not that critical of Beyer, and just enjoy when he can contribute. Generally enjoy hearing his train of thought.