Assessing pace post race
 

Hi everyone,

How would you recommend determining whether the pace of a recently run race was relatively slow, moderate, or fast?

Do you use create your own standard pace figures for the race and compare it to the average for that class?

Wouldn't it be better to compare this standard figure to the standard early pace figures that the specific field demonstrated going into the race? For example, it could be that a particular ALWN2L field was just much faster coming into the race than the typical N2L level.

If you use standard pace figures, where do you get these from and when would they be available post-race? I've looked around and can't seem to find these.

Anyways, appreciate your thoughts. I'm trying to be able to label recently run races in terms of the pace.

Thanks!

Had to of had three...
 

Did the horse have a impact in the last three races.

I make pace figures for the purpose of projecting 1st and 2nd call relative margins for a race to bet. I find I have pretty good success predicting who will be in front and who is fast enough to get clear. I regard it as one of the most important elements of successful handicapping (I only play dirt races).

Ideally for post race assessment you will want to know what the expected fractions are for the final time of the race. This takes a lot of data to do properly. When I made time based figures I started with a baseline average for each track \ dist \ surface and then figured out how it needed to be adjusted for any final time at the distance. At least according to my testing and development it isn't a linear relationship as some believe, i.e. if par for 1:10.0 is 22.0 45.0 early then par fractions for a half mile at 1:14.0 aren't 64.2% of 74 seconds nor is there a 2 second difference (half = 47 seconds as Quirin suggested). Those are ballpark ways but if you want it to be right you do the studies and you'll likely come up with what I did. The problem is once you have the expected fractions you need to inspect them on the day for imbalances. I.e. if the stretch segments were slow all day long relative to the their final times then you need to adjust for what were likely headwinds in the stretch and tailwinds on the backstretch. You can use every horse's time for this, don't just use winners or the horse's that set the fractions. So what you end up with if done properly are variants for each segment of the track that are wind adjusted. This should be done before track variants are even created for the card because the distances will then be balanced 1-turn, 2-turn can be combined if this is done properly.

Do you need to get this scientific? No not at all. Minimally though you need to at least know what normal fractions are for your track and by close observation of trips and race flow you will be able to form pretty good conclusions regarding the effect of pace on the various horses.

After a while you will understand if baseline is 22.0 45.0 1:10.0 any race where you see 22.0 44.3 1:10.0 presented a serious challenge for anyone who was racing three or four wide battling for the lead turning for home, that horse will be overextended and empty in the stretch unless it's far and away the best horse.

I agree that you need to do sectional variants. If you adjust your fractions by a fixed percentage of the daily variant you will miss the bigger piece.

IMO, there are two ways to do it.

1. Use pace figures to determine if the pace was fast or slow relative to the final time and relative to what's normal for that class.

2. Become familiar with the quality and number of speed horses in a race, watch the race develop (which horses went, did the jockeys urge, did the field spread out early etc..) and then look at the result chart to see if the race fell apart, was a merry go round, or more neutral given the quality of the horses that were on the pace and those that tried to close.

A third way would be to do all the above and look at all the evidence.

After doing all this...will there be any time left for actual BETTING?

I don't call him Passhandicapper for nothing. :)

:lol:

Stupid question, but where can I get adjusted pace figures after a race? I can see a horse's past pace figures (Bris, DRF, etc.) for their historical races, but where can I get these figures post race on some sort of chart. Daily racing form doesn't include pace figs in their charts and I don't think Bris either.

Appreciate your help with this.

TimeformUS

Maybe I could connect on this with you sometime, CJ. I've been looking for a few years worth of archived chart speed and pace figures.

Sure. Send me a private message. I can fill you in.

If you want a fun exercise, think about what you're going to do for the Arc because the 2 big preps today were something. The 3yr old prep, the Grand Prix de Paris (replacing the Prix Niel this year I guess) went almost 10 seconds faster for the opening 7f then the Prix Foy. Stradivarius was already cutting back from 2 miles, and had to crawl early, still was coming back to the OBrien winner at the end.

No.

That's why I automated the running styles and chart analysis myself and use Timeform pace figures.

I have all the numbers that describe the race right in front of me when I watch the replay. I watch the race, make some notes, and move on to the next race. That usually leaves me enough time to bet the Derby where my horse will break slowly, run 5 wide and finish 4th. ;)