Belmont Post Positions
 

150th Belmont Stakes
Post
Horse
Trainer/Jockey
Odds
1.
Justify
Baffert/Smith
4-5
2.
Free Drop Billy
Romans/Albarado
30-1
3.
Bravazo
Lukas/Saez
8-1
4.
Hofburg
Mott/Irad Ortiz Jr.
9-2
5.
Restoring Hope
Baffert/Geroux
30-1
6.
Gronkowski
Brown/Jose Ortiz
12-1
7.
Tenfold
Asmussen/Santana Jr.
12-1
8.
Vino Rosso
Pletcher/Velazquez
8-1
9.
Noble Indy
Pletcher/Castellano
30-1
10.
Blended Citizen
O'Neill/Frey
15-1

Hoffburg will be lower than 9/2, he is the steam horse. Vino Rosso is going to be the third choice at about 6-1. Bravazo will be closer to 10/1.

I suppose Tenfold is the value in that field, he ran as well as Bravazo did in my opinion and has more upside.

It would be something if Noble Indy and Restoring Hope and Vino Rosso and Tenfold don't drift down, they are 4 of my 5 horses. But then again, if it rains, Restoring Hope and Vino Rosso are tosses. Sigh. My fifth horse vacilates between Hofburg and Bravazo, and only out of fear of both, but I guess if one is motivated by fear, take the better odds?

Since he's on the rail, Smith has to send, I would think. Restoring Hope didn't really draw well enough to be able to pace him. Most will likely think Justify will American Pharoah it, but he can't. He doesn't run anything like Pharoah, despite all the oohing and ahhing. Castellano would do well to sit on him like a tick.

Wow. This makes me angry. Did he just say the horse was basically in there to be a rabbit

What a shock. Absolutely surprised:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

If you watch the video, Repole never says Noble Indy is "setting the table" for Vino Rosso. It's just the guy's own interpretation.

Post position is so not important in a race this long. If a horse and rider can't get positioned in a 1-1/2 mile race then they just don't belong out there.

Okay I'll give post position a 5% meaning here. Most all else is pedigree of horse to get there first, and jockey being able to time his "whoooosh!" correctly.

I do think it means something. I believe I'm seeing signs of a horse that's keyed up and going to run off in the Belmont, as we've seen in several horses going for the TC, resulting in a loss. Now the 1 hole? The horse is going to take Mike to the front and run too fast. I think it's wide open as to who'll win, but I wouldn't mind if Lukas is the one who stops this TC from happening.

didn't american pharoah break from post #1 too in one of his TC races?

He ain't American Pharoah. That horse was better, and was totally unflappable regarding the hoopla around him. He was also push button in doing whatever the jock instructed. This horse is hotter than AP.

His best style is on the lead.

Noble Indy is not a rabbit, but instead the first of a 1-2 Repole punch at Justify.

Funny, Noble Indy is blinkers off per the PP's? Not really a rabbit strategy if you ask me.

He worked in blinkers on the 1st. He jogged yesterday without them. Pretty odd to me.

I didn't think NI was fast enough to touch Justify early anyway, but this looks like there is even less of a chance now.

To me, NI most likely settles in 2nd or 3rd (Bravazo might be in front of NI, he out broke him in the Risen Star and NI without blinkers). Both of them will be 3 or 4 lengths off of Justify at the first quarter.