Playing Around With Prime Power Numbers
 

This is what I am playing with now. I working to determine how often the highest rated prime power horse beats a lower rated one by the difference in rating assuming at one of them won the race. I am not interest how they do if one runs 7th and the other ninth. I am only interested if one of the two won. I now create a % for how often a horse beats every other horse in the race. Sort like Chess ratings. I do this for every horse in the race. Then using Bayes(thank you Trifecta Mike) I have a % win chance for each starter. I then use square root of Kelly to determine the size of the bet. I plug 75% of my % win chance for the estimate chance of winning in the Kelly formula. I am being very conservative because it so early in the development.
This is still in the very early stage of development and I am pretty sure the numbers I use for determining how much the difference wins will change some as I had more races to my sample. Right I am looking at straight predictor, but it maybe a log. Who Knows what I will eventual end up with. Right now I have dumped all dirt races between 5 1/2 f to a mile & 1/16 together assuming that BRIS has incorporated distance into their ratings. At some point I will separate routes from sprints if this show enough promise. I have compile all the data and enter into excel by hand so things move rather slowly. Throw in that I am bad health and it is a crawl. I did test run yesterday with a $50 bankroll at the AQU. Ended up $22 ahead.
I also plan to look at things that improve the prime powers like speed figures from a different source. But that right now is in the distant future. I will also look at the effects being overlayed or underlayed.
If my health gets to the point where I can no longer bet, I will share my numbers with anyone here who is interested.

I wish you well and hope your health improves.

I think you are going to find out that field size has more impact than anything else on their numbers. They base their ratings on their top five numbers. Smaller fields better results.

RG, you might want to review this thread. I enjoyed it very much. Lots of good stuff in it. I'm sure you were aware of it then, but there's lots of good stuff in some these older threads. Just in case you missed it

http://paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=105031

Hope your health improves and you take home the track with your research! :ThmbUp:

Robert, I've attached a spreadsheet with Bris Prime Power and an alternate POWER rating. FYI a 2 point gap with the alternate POWER rating is significant. Hopefully this will help. :ThmbUp:

I believe you've mentioned you like to play the inner dirt.

Mike

Doesn't brisnet already have this done-- last time I viewed a brisnet product the top # was winning at about 36% (similar to a ML favorite ). Taking the top 2 might not be a bad idea in theory. But I think it's probably more important to classify the races, and pass on those types of races that fall below the average, and develop a betting strategy. It's tough going that route, because the high numbers are generally what everyone else will see when they consider contenders.

I think it will keep you in the game longer, but I believe you need to cross reference this with another independent variable or method. And know when to play or not to play.

This is something for me to do. I doubt if it will ever be profitable. I need to keep my active as I work through some health issues. This seamed like to be a good projected. I have want to test the chess rating method of going unbeaten in a round robin tournament to project as odds for years. I am not that big a fan of Bris Prime Power, but I quite few races with them in my data. Thanks for your comment. I am a huge fan of your posts.

Robert..Hope your health improves. What I would like to see Bris do and I know they won't is to show the Bris power figures for each race..This way one could see if the number was going up or down relative to it's competition. Something similar to the Beyer figures in the DRF.

Perhaps i am wrong, with Prime Power Numbers aren't they going to almost always point you towards the favorites in the race. If so, why care?

"Almost" and "Always" are 2 different things from my viewpoint in horse racing... Al favorites are not equal. Just my 2 pennies.

It must be something I am doing wrong but lately I have been getting killed by horses outside of their top 5. JMHO, but I think BPP is one tool of many and by no means is a holy graile.

Agreed, still don't think that those numbers can be profitable. Just too many eyeballs see them. If you have figured out how to turn a profit with those numbers you are the only one i know. Great job and continued success. Other aspects of the game IMO that are not as well understood and not overplayed.

Nope. Seen plenty of good prices on top 2 prime power.

Usually because the horse had a bad "last out"

Glad it's profitable for you. Continued success.

I didn't say that :lol: