- - Which Long Shot
( http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=159064)
GP 10
Maybe #2
Pass #3, #5
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Elp 8
Maybe #7
Pass #6, #8
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Elp 9
Maybe #5, #9
Pass #10
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Bel 10
Maybe #4
Pass #3, #5, #8, #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
(Post 2627179)
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Sorry no. I'm just concentrating on morning line 15:1 or higher and I miss any lower odds horses who creep into range.
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7/3/20
Maybe Horses
13 bets (2 hit board)
Bel 4---#10 30.00, 6.70, 5.40
Elp 9--#5----------, -----, 3.80
Win 30.00 -26.00 = +4.00
Place 6.70 -26.00 = minus 19.30
Show 9.20 - 26.00 = minus 14.80
Pass Horses
43 bets (3 hit board)
Bel 5-----#8 -------, -------, 6.40
Lrl 8 -----#5 -------, 19.40, 7.80
Bel 10----#8 -------, -------, 15.20
Win 0.00 - 86.00 = minus 86.00
Place 19.40 - 86.00 = minus 66.60
Show 29.40 -86.00 = minus 54.60
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I'm only going to measure win bets from now on. Payoffs for place and show on long-shots are notoriously low.
Overall (2 days)
Maybe bets:
2/24 = 8% frequency
+22.60/48.00 = 47% profit
Pass bets:
1/75 = 1% F
-106.20/150.00 = 71% loss
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TheOracle |
07-03-2020 07:27 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aner
(Post 2627222)
Sorry no. I'm just concentrating on morning line 15:1 or higher and I miss any lower odds horses who creep into range.
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Ok I keep track of Morning Line odds at NYC race tracks so Aqu, Bel and Sar
I will see what 15-1 and higher Morning Lines have done at Belmont over the years and the ROI for win, across the board and also show for that group
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I would be interested in that data. Thanks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
(Post 2627248)
Ok I keep track of Morning Line odds at NYC race tracks so Aqu, Bel and Sar
I will see what 15-1 and higher Morning Lines have done at Belmont over the years and the ROI for win, across the board and also show for that group
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TheOracle |
07-03-2020 10:57 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aner
(Post 2627271)
I would be interested in that data. Thanks.
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Hey Aner
I just took the 2 days into July of this year for ML odds greater than or equal to 15-1 at Belmont
Code:
1 07-02-2020 2nd race 3 True Gold (NY) Clm Turf Firm 1 M C Baker 20/1#
2 07-02-2020 2nd race 4 Curlins Legacy (NY) Clm Turf Firm 1 M P J Kelly 20/1# S 12.2
3 07-02-2020 4th race 4 Bella Invasion (NY) Clm Dirt Fast 6 Furl R Persaud 30/1#
4 07-02-2020 4th race 8 Two Graces (NY) Clm Dirt Fast 6 Furl J T Ryerson 20/1#
5 07-02-2020 5th race 2 Peaches and Spice (NY) Clm Dirt Fast 7 Furl J N Quiles 50/1#
6 07-02-2020 5th race 3 Taylers the Boss (NY) Clm Dirt Fast 7 Furl A Arriaga 20/1# S 6.5
7 07-02-2020 5th race 4 Princess Mikayah (NY) Clm Dirt Fast 7 Furl M A Simmonds 15/1#
8 07-02-2020 6th race 1 Liveyourbeastlife (KY) Alw Op CDirt Fast 1 1/16 MJ R Abreu 20/1# S 6.2
9 07-02-2020 6th race 5 Mr. Shortandsimple (KY) Alw Op CDirt Fast 1 1/16 MR R Rodriguez 30/1#
10 07-02-2020 6th race 6 Liams Fire (VA) Alw Op CDirt Fast 1 1/16 MA Chichakly 30/1#
11 07-02-2020 7th race 1 Discreet Lover (FL) Alw Op CDirt Fast 1 M U St. Lewis 20/1#
12 07-02-2020 7th race 4 No Dozing (KY) Alw Op CDirt Fast 1 M A Delacour 15/1#
13 07-02-2020 8th race 2 Fetching (NY) Stakes Turf Firm 1 M M E Casse 15/1#
14 07-02-2020 9th race 3 Gen Z (NY) Mdn Clm Turf Firm 1 1/8 M J W Ferraro 15/1#
15 07-02-2020 9th race 5 Here Comes Bubbles (NY) Mdn Clm Turf Firm 1 1/8 M N Henry 30/1#
16 07-03-2020 2nd race 5 Cobra Sophie (ON) Clm Turf Firm 1 M M Kantarmaci 20/1#
17 07-03-2020 2nd race 6 Offlee Irish (NY) Clm Turf Firm 1 M J Falk 30/1#
18 07-03-2020 2nd race 8 Annie Rocks (FL) Clm Turf Firm 1 M E J DeLauro 15/1# S 6.3
19 07-03-2020 3rd race 4 Party in the Sand (NY) Clm Dirt Fast 6.5 FurlJ T Ryerson 15/1#
20 07-03-2020 4th race 5 Gloriously (KY) Str Alw Turf Firm 6 Furl J A Jerkens 15/1#
21 07-03-2020 4th race 6 Overtime Olivia (NY) Str Alw Turf Firm 6 Furl A Arriaga 50/1#
22 07-03-2020 4th race 9 Sea Sparkle (ON) Str Alw Turf Firm 6 Furl C Goberdhan 20/1#
23 07-03-2020 4th race 10 Tiple (IRE) Str Alw Turf Firm 6 Furl P M Serpe 15/1# W 30.0 6.7 5.4
24 07-03-2020 5th race 8 Preamble (KY) Clm Dirt Fast 6 Furl M Miceli 30/1# S 6.4
25 07-03-2020 5th race 9 Seethisquick (KY) Clm Dirt Fast 6 Furl D Dharamjit 20/1#
26 07-03-2020 6th race 2 Super Twenty Seven (KY) Alw Op CDirt Fast 1 1/16 MO Noda 30/1#
27 07-03-2020 6th race 3 Bachelors Bait (KY) Alw Op CDirt Fast 1 1/16 MM R Matz 30/1#
28 07-03-2020 7th race 2 Arrietty (NY) Mdn SpclTurf Firm 6 Furl H J Bond 15/1#
29 07-03-2020 7th race 4 Big Als Gal (NY) Mdn SpclTurf Firm 6 Furl C J Englehart 15/1#
30 07-03-2020 7th race 5 Tuck In (NY) Mdn SpclTurf Firm 6 Furl J W Ferraro 15/1#
31 07-03-2020 8th race 8 Forever Wicked (NY) Alw Dirt Fast 1 M D Dharamjit 30/1#
32 07-03-2020 10th race 3 Beyond the Stars (NY) Mdn Clm Turf Good 6 Furl J W Ferraro 30/1#
33 07-03-2020 10th race 4 Fivestar Bandit (NY) Mdn Clm Turf Good 6 Furl C Baker 20/1#
34 07-03-2020 10th race 5 Jet for Andy (NY) Mdn Clm Turf Good 6 Furl R G Davis 15/1#
35 07-03-2020 10th race 8 Lorcan (NY) Mdn Clm Turf Good 6 Furl B N Levine 20/1# S 15.2
36 07-03-2020 10th race 12 Rapide Franey (NY) Mdn Clm Turf Good 6 Furl C J Englehart 15/1#
ML Odds Strts 1st 2nds 3rds Win % Win $ Cost Return % Return
gt or = 15-1 36 1 0 6 2.7% $30 $72 $-42 -59%
WPS % WPS $ Cost Return % Rtrn Shw $
19.4% $94.9 $216 $-121.1 -57% 58.2
So far the group is only winning at 2.7% and in the money only 19.4% of the time and not much in terms of ROI
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Thanks for the data. It is in line with Schwarz's information.
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7/4/20
GP 2
Maybe #3
Pass #4
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Lrl 1
Maybe #11
Pass #5, #6, #9
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TheOracle |
07-04-2020 01:02 PM |
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Bel 1
Pass #3, #5, #6, #10, #11
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GP 4
Maybe #10
Pass #4, #6, #11
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Lrl 3
Maybe #7, #11
Pass #1, #3, #6, #8, #10
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GP 5
Maybe #3, #4
Pass #1, #7
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Bel 4
Maybe #2
Pass #7, #8
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Lrl 6
Pass #4, #5, #12, #15
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Bel 6
Maybe #2
Pass #3, #4, #6
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GP 10
Maybe #6, #10
Pass #1, #8
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Lrl 9
Pass #3, #6, #9, #11
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Elp 9
Maybe #6, #13
Pass #5, #8
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#9 and #11 scratched late
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aner
(Post 2627600)
Lrl 11
Pass #9, #10, #11
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LRC 7
Pass #2, #7, #8, #9
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