LA 6

Maybe #1
Pass #3, #5

LA 7

Maybe #9
Pass #6, #7

LA 8

Pass #1, #7

12/13/20

Maybe

GP 8-------#5 18.20, 7.40, 4.80
Haw 6-----#9 22.60, 9.40, 7.80



10 bets (2 hit board) 2W/0P/0S


W =40.80 -20.00 = -25.60
P = 16.80 -20.00 = -3.20
S = 12.60 -20.00 = -7.40
__________________

12/13/20


Pass Horses


41 bets (2 hit board) 0W/0P/2S

Haw 7----#2 ------, ------, 9.80
LA 6-----#5 ------, ------, 8.00




W= 00.00 -82.00 = -82.00
P = 00.00 -82.00 = -82.00
S = 17.80 -82.00 = -64.20

Overall (111 days)

Maybe


1505 bets (100W/107P/149S)

Win 100/1505 = 6% frequency

Win = -480.40/3010= 16% loss

In the money 356/1505 = 24%



Pass


6049 (99W/158P/298S

Win 99/6049 = 2.0% frequency

Win = Minus -5317.20/ 12098 = 44% loss

In the money 555 /6049 = 9%

I have mucked around in the garbage dump of handicapping (the super long shots) long enough. During 111 days of handicapping I separated 7554 horses with a morning line of 15 or more into two groups, those who show some promise (maybe) and those who do not show promise (pass). This should be enough data to satisfy most handicappers, except statisticians.

My original premise was "maybe" horses are superior to "pass" horses and the study supported this contention.

Maybe horses = 1505 picked and 100 won (6.6% hit rate). Loss was $480 for $3010 bet (16.0%). 356 hit the board (23.7% in the money).

Pass horses = 6049 picked and 99 won (1.6% hit rate). Loss was $5317 for $12,098 bet (43.9%). 555 hit board (9.2% in the money).

The maybe horses were only slightly better than the house take while the pass horses were much worse. Maybe horses were no secret to bettors with an average payoff per hit of $25.30, but the pass horses were a mystery, payout per hit of $68.50.

The reason I chose to make these picks public was to keep myself honest. It is so easy to pretend you really would have bet that $50 horse. A public record prevents such nonsense.

That last part is so true. Thanks for sharing your work.

Dittos! :headbanger:

Yeah, I've been following along as well and appreciate your devotion to what, on the surface, appears a thankless project. You've got good info on the truly hopeless horses (and the not-so-hopeless :)). Hope you can put it to use. :ThmbUp:

There are some of us that are contest players that use various methods to come up with the elusive "bomb" or big horse.
Here's a mechanical method that I have come across that was put into software that works reasonably well for me.. Here are 4 horses that should be well placed in today's Gulfstream (01-03-21) If any of these horses are bet down below 5-1 odds at post time, pass the race. Normally, you would not get these many plays from an individual track. If I hit at least one of these at 5-1 odds or better, I would be ecstatic.:jump:

See attached file.