Pluses and minuses- Hofburg
 

pluses

1. Traffic problems in Derby. Galloped out well.
2. Jockey is an Ortiz brother riding in New York. (enough said).
3. Fresh Horse (skipped Preakness)
4. Working out well.
5. Sire is Tapit. (3 of last 4 Belmont's won by Tapit sire).
6. Lightly raced, likely to improve.
7. Hall of fame trainer Bill Mott.


minuses


1. Running against a Buzzsaw in Justify.
2. May be pace dependent.


Feel free to add to the lists.

One small thing that bothered me: I saw an interview wherein Mott stated that he didn’t think that Hofburg had “regressed”.

WTF? Has anybody, anywhere publicly stated that Hofburg has possibly regressed? No - all arguments against are similar to yours, or include inexperience/lack of a major win.

Then why even bring up regression?

That is worrisome to me: the rebuttal to an unspoke accustaion by the man with the most inside knowledge.

Qualities of Class . . .
 

Except the "other brother" gives him a better ride.

The 2 times Hofburg ran ITM he had jose, not irad. So in this case, I move your 2.) to the negative place.


I will probably put him 3rd. Best would be 2nd.

Elgible for nw1x and will be 4/1 in the Belmont Stakes

Exactly my thought with only a slow maiden win under his belt and a suck up 2nd because of the pace meltdown in the FL Derby. From a pure wagering standpoint he's a gigantic underlay in my book.

Part of my handicapping is identifying improving horses. I look at 4 different areas. The numbers mean nothing, it is the direction the numbers are going that mean something.

Hoffberg.

0.47..... 0.41..... 1.913..... 0.638
1.15..... 0.47..... 2.171..... 1.085
1.48..... 15.85... 3.010..... 3.010

His last three races tell the story. IMO, declining. The 4 horses that I show improving are Free Drop Billy, Noble Indy, Tenfold, and Justify.

Actually I liked the maiden win since it was coming from the 11 post at Gulfstream at a mile and a sixteenth.Given the short distance between the starting gate and the first turn.

Negative: poor value. Moving from wise guy horse to obvious public choice.

In the 4th one (American Pharoah Triple crown). Frosted (Tapit) ran second.

Hofburg is Closely inbred to AP Indy (3x3)

it wont be pedigree holding Hofburg back.

Allan

I like the horse, dont like the odds, and the thread was looking for plusses and minuses

His last two works were pretty sharp.

Training tracks are deeper than the main track so the Dean says to scratch one second off the workout time so his 4f in 48.1 and his 6f in 1:12.2 are relatively sharp - Mott is trying to put some speed into the horse as the horse has absolutely no turn of foot . . . and losing ground in the stretch in his Mdn is none too promising.

I've got his sire AWD and his damsire AWD ranked fourth in this group . . .

The major knock against Hofburg is that he's the clear 2nd choice.

Sure, he had some traffic trouble that delayed his run in the Derby or he probably would have been closer. But on the flip side both the Ky Derby and Florida Derby were tailor made for a deep closer off very fast paces that compromised the chances of other good horses in those races. I don't think he's so obviously better than any number of other horses in the Belmont that you can look at him and be satisfied with him as a solid 2nd choice. He's one of any number of horses that could pull off an upset if Justify doesn't run his "A" race or they jump up a little at 12F.

Confirmed by the Hank Goldberg mention and Ellis Starr blog posting I read earlier ...

I like him (or did like him) but for a week now, as more and more jump on especially, it just screams warning: Wise Guy alert.

Apart from that as "superstition" because I'm sure a "Wise Guy" horse occasionally wins (I can't remember the last Triple Crown race where it did though) I always thought that Hofburg was crazy low odds. He should be 5 or 6 at the lowest, and probably 6 to 8 like Vino Rosso. Rosso has more wins and has the rest too, it is just odd for that gut feeling must be going for with Mott here, or the breeding; I can't explain it otherwise.