Automatic DQ’s for certain whip violations starting July 1st
 

Does anyone know how much a whip is used in training a horse before all these whip rules came into place ?

When handicapping a race how does one incorporate the new whip rules ?

For the past few years I've been auto-generating stats by scoring sql query results for rider, trainer, sire, damssire, post position, etc. given today's race attributes (Track Code, Surface, Distance, Fieldsize, etc.)

For riders, it doesn't matter if the race being scored is run at (say) Remington Park where riders use the whip as they see fit or at (say) Monmouth where limited whip use rules are enforced.

The stats reflect a combination of each rider's historical wins, 2nds, 3rds, 4ths, 5ths, etc. adjusted for field size and number of occurrences in the data.

True, there was an initial period of noise in the data when new whip rules were introduced at both Monmouth and Santa Anita.

But after the first few weeks at each venue the stats auto adjusted quite smoothly (all things considered.)

In other words the riders adjusted to the rules in place where they ride, and the stats reflect each rider's historical performance good or bad.


-jp

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Thanks.

That's what I argued would probably happen as long as the rules are the same for everyone.

But after the first few weeks at each venue the stats auto adjusted quite smoothly (all things considered.)

In other words the riders adjusted to the rules in place where they ride, and the stats reflect each rider's historical performance good or bad.


-jp

.[/QUOTE

Only problem is these animals ship in and out of tracks with different whip rules. That alone skews the stats and makes them highly suspect. Lord knows how confused some of these horses must be. Anyhow my question still remains...are whips used in training horses?

These DQs, though automatic, would appear to be coming AFTER the race is declared official with the original placings, and be a consequence of the stewards' review of the races of the previous day/days, right? Or am I misunderstanding how it works?

Yes. That's how I read it too.


-jp

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The data doesn't really support that.

I created a text file that contains four cut and pastes of sql query results that I ran showing year to date data for 2022 with the data broken out by rank within each race for the rider stats mentioned in my previous post.

Link to the text file here:
http://www.JCapper.com/Messageboard/...Riders2022.txt

1. The top section in the file is all track codes calendar year 2022 ytd (115,819 total starters from 01-01-2022 through yesterday 06-25-2022.)

Note that the rider stats breakout data by rank shows a clean downward progression. By that I mean rank=1 win rate was higher than rank=2, rank=2 higher than rank=3, rank=3 higher than rank=4, and so on, etc.

The one notable exception when you get all the way down to rank=18?

Rich Strike's Kentucky Derby.

2. The next section is calendar year 2022 ytd for three tracks I am aware of where limited whip rules were in effect: Monmouth, Golden Gate Fields, and Santa Anita. Here the breakout data shows a clean downward progression as well (except for rank=11.)

3. The next section in the file is calendar year 2022 ytd for Monmouth, Golden Gate Fields, and Santa Anita, but for only those starters who last raced at the same track code as today's race (non-shippers.)

Here, the rider stats breakout data shows an overall downward progression, but does have some noise in it. (The exception being rank=3 having a slightly higher win% than rank=2.)

4. The final section in the file is calendar year 2022 ytd for starters at Monmouth, Golden Gate Fields, and Santa Anita whose last race was at a different track code than today's race (shippers.)

Here, the rider stats breakout data for horses shipping to a track where limited whip rules are in effect shows an overall downward progression, but does have some noise in it. (The exception being ranks 8 & 9 with slightly higher win% than rank=7.)

My lean is that the noise for non-shippers (rank=3) and shippers (ranks 8 & 9) in the MTH-GGX-SAX data is likely the result of small sample size as opposed to the horses being confused.

That said, feel free to interpret the data as you see fit.


-jp

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Quick follow up to my previous post...

Someone told me limited whip rules are also in effect at Woodbine, Los Al Thorouhgbred, Los Al, and Pleasonton.

Also, the sql queries I used in my previous post did not exclude first time starters from the ship to and ship from data.

Here's a link to a revised text file that contains cut and pastes of sql query results:
http://www.JCapper.com/MessageBoard/...iders2022b.txt

The data in the above linked to text file is thorouhgbreds only calendar year 2022 from 01-01-2022 current through yesterday 06-26-2022.

The breakout for rider stats by rank data shows a clean overall downward progression in all four sql expressions.

Any exceptions to that, which I'll chalk up to small sample size, are denoted with "<--" characters (without the quotes) to the right of each row.


-jp

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In California whips can be carried in training but are not supposed to be used except for correction purposes. I do see a lot of workouts and I think for the most part there is 95+% compliance with that.

They aren't gonna DQ the horse for parimutuel purposes right?

Sounds like they could based on this paragraph in the story:

"An increased number of disqualifications would be highly unpopular with both bookmakers and punters. Such a sanction would inevitably become the only talking point if it were used to change the result of, say, the Grand National."

Then it's another reason to leave the game. These idiots in California will be DQ'ing in 4 races a day. This entire whip rule bullshit is nuts. Sometimes the whip is needed more than 6 times, sometimes it's needed less than 6 times, and sometimes it's not needed at all. If a horse has welts or is cut then the Jockey should be fined and or suspended.

The newspaper article is from a British newspaper and is just speculating about possible changes to UK racing. I've seen nothing to say pari-mutuel results will be affected by this in the US. As far as I can see any DQ from whip abuse happens the next day after the event so won't affect bettors.