RTY Trading Testbed [Record = 14 for 64 | -3.70pts | -$185.00 per contract]
 

Just gonna post some RTY trades here and see what happens

THIS THREAD IS FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY - NOT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY SECURITIES OR FUTURES CONTRACTS

LONG @ 1739.80 stop @ 1710.50

still holding position...currently @1751

1760 and making highs as I type this...market doesn't look like it's going to lose upward momentum for a while...I guess maybe J&J earnings might move something tomorrow morning?

If we push past Friday's high tonight (1765)...I might move the stop up....might check in one more time before I go to sleep...lol

And just like that, it blew past Friday's high...

moving stop to 1727.10

Pop quiz...when was the last time you remember futures being up almost 2% overnight after an up regular session of 2%?

It's been a while...I can't remember the last time the overnight was up this much around midnight...something is driving this market tonight....

Well...here we are 7 hours later and essentially in the same place as we left last night...although it did go through a dip overnight and now back on the upswing.

If it can make a new high here, that would be nice, and I will probably move my stop again if it does.

It looks to me like we still have a lot of potential momentum remaining to the upside for today.

Don't let me forget...Netflix earnings after the bell...will want to really tighten things up if I am still holding this long after the bell...

Momentum MIGHT be slowing down just a tad...I think the 9:30 open will be telling as to how much energy this move has left in the short term

RTY showing a lot of relative strength vs. ES on the open...setting new highs while ES just stands still basically...interesting...

And just as I typed that, RTY starts coming down dramatically...but is now stabilizing...market might just be running out of steam? Lots of profit taking on the open?

Still making new highs on RTY...so I think we're good for now...currently at 1792

Stop moved to 1756.50...not liking what I am seeing at the moment

Stopped out at 1756.50 for a gain of 16.7 points on trade #1.

I am still debating how to manage my exists with these trades. I took the safe route with this one and moved the stop up. But that might change in the future.

Attachment 32462Imo, overnight futures and US market pricing when markets are open are (still) very much driven by price movement in the dollar.

Clickable thumbnails below:

Daily Chart BBDXY (Bloomberg Spot Dollar)

Daily Chart SPY

Fwiw, my takeaway:

During this current market cycle price movement in the dollar is shortly followed by proportional price movement of US markets in the opposite direction a very high percentage of the time.

Sometimes market pricing (short term) becomes disconnected from movement in the dollar.

That was the case this morning after market open. The dollar was rising but the SPX was (still) holding onto its gains.

When I saw this I decided to add a few more SPY Nov252022 320 puts at 1.60 to the trade I posted in the other thread (clickable thumbnail below.)


-jp

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My alternative method of exiting my RTY trades would involve setting the initial stop as I did above...and exiting based on time....not moving the stop up.

So, I would probably be looking to get out sometime tonight...close to midnight...it will be interesting to see where price is around that point (assuming the initial stop theoretically holds).

Looking more and more like moving that stop was a bad idea...lol

would have gotten out at 1773.90 if I didn't move that stop up...which is about 17pts of additional profit left on the table...

It's become my experience that leaving the initial stop in place and finding another way to exit is the best way. Trailing stops are crutches. But old habits die hard.

That's why you test. That's why this thread exists.

For the remainder of this test, the initial stop will remain untouched.

This may seem rash based on one trade...but it's something I've been mulling for a while...my automated system doesn't use a trailing stop...it's also a time-based exit of sorts.

Time based exits allow you to capture way more profit. There is no predetermined exit price...

This kind of makes sense in a way. You're already incorporating plenty of uncertainty in using an initial stop loss. You want to put the additional burden on yourself of being correct about an exit price?

I'm not that good...are you?

Taking away the burden of trying to figure out an exit price and just letting the market roll along (as long as your initial stop loss isn't hit) provides the best way to "let your winners run"

I would just like to point out, in terms of "market timing"....what happened to futures since I posted that I "would have" sold my long at 1773.90 last night.

RTY has dropped over 30 points basically straight down and has blown past yesterday's lows...

Pretty good timing I would say...lol

Currently have an order in to short @ 1751.40...will post if it gets filled

Market is so weak apparently, and I woke up too late...the market isn't likely to give me my fill it seems...I will keep waiting...it's too bad I can't easily automate the strategy I am using in this thread

Just got filled...that might be a bad thing...lol

RTY short @ 1751.40
Stop loss = 1764.40
Target = ???

RTY just taking a huge dump today...down twice as much as other indexes...of course I don't mind...

The trading day seems to be falling right into your lap on this one. :headbanger:

The trade is still open...was looking very nice there for a while, but of course, it's never that easy...

Still sporting a 16pt profit at the moment as the futures markets rest for another 50 minutes before opening up again at 6pm ET.

The way my indicators are looking at the moment, this short looks like it will likely be covered tonight at some point...I will post here when it does.

Stop loss is still at original level and will remain so no matter what.

Just covered my short...getting out while the getting is GOOD

Recap:
Short RTY @ 1751.40
Covered @ 1722.50
P/L +28.90pts

Thus far I am 2 for 2 in this thread and +45.60pts, or +$2,280 per contract traded on RTY.

New Trade

LONG RTY @ 1738.80
stop @ 1728.40

Liz Truss trying to mess up my trade by resigning...:lol:

And she just did that...got stopped out

Recap:
Long RTY @ 1738.80
Sold @ 1728.40
P/L -10.40pts

can you believe something as stupid as Liz Truss resigning cost me that trade?

The life of a trader...:pound::pound::pound:

RTY hitting daily highs as I type this...FML lol

Welp, I'm kind of kicking myself at the moment.

Had a signal to go long this morning RTY at around the open...but didn't take it because:

1) My automated trading program was already long ES...
2) Although my indicators in RTY were pointing long, my ES indicators were pointing SHORT (despite that, the automated system still went long...confusing and contradictory I know, but I don't use these indicators in the automated process...I just have them on there as added info for myself)

So ES & RTY indicators were pointing in the opposite direction, and I was already long ES...so that's why I didn't take or post any RTY long trades today...even though I wish I had...lol

Would have been close to a 40pt win at the moment...but at least this means I won't be exposed over the weekend...lol

It smells like short RTY soon...stay tuned

This smells SO WEAK to me right now...and there is an important number coming out at 9:45 this morning (Flash Services PMI)...will that be the number that tanks this market today?

SHORT RTY @ 1749.9
stop @ 1760.4

came close to stopping me out there for a moment...but trade is chugging along nicely now...really crazy day so far at the open...up...down...up...down...lol

So...haven't gotten stopped out yet...and market didn't go down like I thought it would...however RTY is showing relative weakness compared to ES...and the VIX went UP again even though the DOW went up hundreds of points...

Until I get stopped out...trade continues on...

Stopped out @ 1760.50

-10.6pts

Record = 2 for 4 +24.60pts

sooo...if you can't beat them, join them? Is it time to go long soon? :lol:

LONG RTY @ 1767.80
stop @ 1745.50

Coke and surprize UPS gets higher than expected...

Lets continue this......