Handicapping RETOOLED. My New Approach on Beating This Game
 

I'm 59, always been a multicolor pen/form guy. I've been using BRIS's Ultimates since 1997. About a year and a half ago I decided to explore other handicapping methods. I realized I had deficiencies. One of which was not being able to identify when the "cheap speed" or just speed in general, would win. I got into a trap where I was betting the strongest finisher most of the time. A lot of seconds and thirds :bang: .

I had the attitude that software programs just led you to the fave. But I opened my mind and started experimenting. I tried AllWays, Nuerax, MultiCaps, Trackmaster and even went back to DRF. Formulator was interesting, but I just can't live with the Beyers. MultiCaps opened my eyes to pace handicapping. I started seeing the E types that would be there at the wire. Then I joined HANA and they offered free PP's for their member race of the week. In those PP's was CJ's Pace Figures. Long story short, I signed up after a few more trials. I now use them in conjunction with the BRIS Ultimates. BRIS's 8 trainer/jock stats and the overall figs in the upper right are key elements for me.

I then decided I had to pick on a key bet. Another one of my faults was over extending on multi exotic wagers. I'm not a grinder. I only get to play 1-3 days a week and 1 is most often. The work thing. A few people here like to promote win and place betting on mostly faves. Not my style. I've also found that the pik 3 very often gives poor value when considering the hit rate probability. So I decided on the Pik 4. I could elaborate more on this but I don't want to write a book here.

I've learned a lot from the HANA website. I'm not ruling out playing 25% takeout exotics entirely, but I'm steering clear as much as I can. Monmouth's 15% takeout on the pik 4 is what I'm concentrating on now, but unfortunately their meet is about to end. I'm looking at SA, the Kentucky tracks and the winter meets at Gulfstream and Tampa as prime pik 4 tracks. They are all roughly 20%. I love NY racing, especially Belmont, but 26% on their Pik 4 is too much to accept. Win, Doubles and Exactas are the smartest way to bet there.

Ive also noticed that when I concentrate on a "key bet", I do a lot better with that group of races than the ones that follow. So here's my gameplan:

I'm going to pick a playable PIk 4. By playable, I mean no baby races, no maiden turf races with multiple starters with no turf form. Another one of my weaknesses. Some of my biggest hits have been maiden races, but 3,4,5 yr old on the dirt is the type I'm looking for. One thing thats not going to change is the amount of $ I allot to a day. Except for special occasions, like a road trip or BC day, $200 is what it is. I plan on covering the pik 4 with about half of my stake and using the other $100+ or so on value plays within the pik 4. Value could be a win bet, or keying a 20-1 shot over 4 in the tri. Whatever, if I pik this thing stone cold, the payoffs could be huge. I think its a good risk/reward strategy without committing any more $ than I normally would in a racing day.

Opinions??

You mentioned that you're aware of takeout and that it matters to you.

That's a good start. You didn't mention whether or not you are getting rebates. If you already are, great. Pick your spots, fire away when the situation calls for it, and by all means keep records of your play - including the thought process behind how and why you arrived at certain decisions. Then make it a point to periodically review your records. I guarantee you that no matter how your selections are arrived at - the act of keeping and reviewing records can elevate your game. If you aren't getting rebates you should know you probably have options. If you'd like specific recommendations PM me.

-jp

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The one thing you might want to remember is that the sharks and/or whales zero in on the low-takeout bets. Sometimes, the bets with the 25% takeout are easier to beat.

In other words, if you're fading 15%, and there is 5% more smart money than stupid, then you have to be 20% better than the public. If the takeout is 25%, and there is 15% more stupid money than smart money, then you only have to be 10% better than the public.

you have just retooled yourself into making sure that you don't win at this game. you have just eliminated the only type's of races where you might find a possibility of an edge. most people are like yourself not having any idea on what is going on with a baby race. in this day and age you are betting against people that have the same or better computer program's to come up with your selections. i happen to be in the "rebate selling business" myself. all a rebate does for you is helps you lose less when you lose or win more when you win. its true that if you play those high takeout wagers without a rebate you will get killed. most of the rates are something like 25% out. there aren't enough people out there that get their picks by reading the racing form these days or playing their lucky numbers to overcome the chop.

You say that as if this isn't helpful. What more do you want a rebate to do? Fix your dinner and tuck you in at bedtime? :confused:

all a rebate does is help you win more or lose less. it doesn't make you a winner if you have nothing else going for you. maybe one has better sheets or better numbers, or better infor than the other guy. all iam saying is that 99.9% of all people betting horses these days lose even with a rebate. i have the highest rebates on shore and my guys don't win.

The rebates are adjusted to the actual takeout, so I'm not sure how zeroing in on lower takeout bets is going to work. If the take is 15%, how much do you think the rebate is going to be?

Hopefully no one has such unrealistic expectations.

Not sure what a "shark" is but I can tell you this would be incorrect for a "whale."

Whales zero in on the high takeout bets.

This is because their rebates are tied directly to the take at most tracks. That is, the higher the takeout, the higher the rebate. Thus, the higher takeout tracks/pools have a larger potential advantage.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

Doesn't this make it a wash? If the take minus their rebate is always the same, why would they have a reason to prefer either?

This begs the question (which I have pondered with no real conclusions):

Is is better to bet a 25% takeout and get a 15% rebate, or bet the same race with a 10% takeout and no rebate? Are there any structural differences?

My first thought is that there could be a difference in how the public plays, since the difference between 10% and 25% takeout will affect the odds of favorites, possibly changing the attractiveness, and obviously, the impact on longshot prices would be seen as well. I'm interested in what others think.

Not a wash... The rebates are huge.

The variation is what enables the profit. It is why a low-takeout pool (like the win pool) is not as profitable to a whale as the exotic pool at the same track, even though the takeout is often much higher.



Dave

yup, exotic bets into pools with high take/high rebates are the way to go.

It's easy to spread a ton of money into these bets and break even on the bets.

The rebate is gold.

I do have one concern, I "think" the whale money (the part that sees the normal pools) is or could kill the edge in these exotics for the others without the rebates.

I can see these pools getting hit hard.

I think that the bettor with a poor win pctg. would prefer the higher rebate, while a better capper would prefer a lower takeout.

I guess it depends on your definition of "whale". If a whale is strictly a player who works on high-volume churn/rebate, then I suppose you're right.

I know of a few players who bet big sums on a select few races (meaning a handful per month). I would imagine that the low-takeout exotics are the first place they look.