Gotham Stakes PPs
 

Mind Controls . . .
 

:1: Family Biz - lacks determination
:2: Knicks Go- threw in the towel after BCJ
:3: Mind Control - fresh legs w/7 tr.t works
:4: Much Better - lacks stamina, late drive
:5: Haikal - game
:6: Instagrand - prove it
:7: Not That Brady - tough; quarter crack, missed work
:8: Tikhvin Flew - repelled
~
:3: Mind Control to Win

Best of racing luck.

Looking forward to the Gotham!

I really liked the :7: NTB in this spot. His quarter crack issue gives me some pause though, will look to see how he is getting around the track pre-race. I also worry about race shape. :2: Knicks Go showed in his last he can’t rate and will likely be sent from the inside post, the Baffert horse :4: shows lots of early speed, although I doubt it will hold. The :8: also looks like he will want to try to get within a couple lengths of the early pace setters as well. He’ll look at Mind Controls wins, all cams controlling the pace.

The more I look the more I think a horse will come from several lengths off the pace to win. The horse that looks to have the best setup is the :5: Haikal.

Instagrand will be sent off as the 3-5 favorite right? Hard to use him in the win spot at that price. I think he is talented enough to let the speed duel unfold in front of him and capitalize as well, but not at the likes unappetizing price.

I’m looking at a decent sized win bet on :5: if the odds are right. For exotics

:5:/ALL but :1::8:/ ALL but :1::8:

Not That Brady took advantage of a gold rail last time and has way more speed to deal with in this race. I think the ml maker biffed on him big time in this spot. I think Haikal is talented but he also took advantage of a bias in the race with Tikhivn Flew. If the track was fair you have to believe Tikhvin Flew wins that last race going away. All this said. If Instagrand is himself he should be able to handle this field. I’ll use 5,6,8 and no one else.

Not That Brady gonna be two or three times the ML in this spot...

The :6: was fast. Will see if he retains it going an extra quarter. The horse probably will not be alone up front which adds another handicapping dimension. I kind of hope he wins to suck up some future pool and Derby day money as I believe he's a lost cause at ten panels. The race is only a mile but it might be just long enough for the :5: to close the gap and contest for a nip at the wire.

Not a high confidence play but a potential win bet on the :5:. Use :3::5::6: on top gimmicks.

Not That Ready . . .
 

When I took a look @ this race my first pick was Not That Brady. I reviewed the Withers replay and I was impressed w/his courage and determination deep stretch; wanted every bit of it. I took a look at his pedigree and saw the rare point[s] in the Professional wing of his DP - I was on this horse. DP = 4-6-11-0-1 (22) DI = 2.38 CD = 0.55. I did some further reading and found after his last work he had a minor setback . . .

The Big Brown chestnut, bred in New York by KatieRich Farms, suffered a minor setback after coming out of his February 17 breeze at Aqueduct with a quarter crack. “He had a little bit of a quarter crack, but it was not that bad,” said Rodriguez. “We took our time with him. We missed three days of training but not really as I was able to tack walk the horse.” Not That Brady returned to the work tab on March 3 and covered five furlongs in 1:02.98. “We had a chance to breeze him and he looks good,” said Rodriguez.

In that same article I read his jockey was an apprentice . . .

Apprentice rider Reylu Gutierrez, who retains the mount . . . Rodriguez said he is pleased to have NYRA's leading apprentice rider back in the irons on Saturday. “He's a very strong rider and he knows the horse well,” said Rodriguez. “He knows the horse needs to break good and to chase him out of there.”

I wasn't overly concerned that an apprentice was in the irons but I was concerned w/the quarter crack and I believe he missed one work; his last work in 1:02.98 may be tell-tale. All things considered, I figured the percentages may not be w/him so I reluctantly went w/my second choice, Mind Control.

It's a tough game. One minor setback can change everything . . . Best of luck :ThmbUp: to Not That Brady and his connections in this race, it would be nice to see them move forward along the Derby Trail. New York-Bred Not That Brady Looks to Steal Gotham Stakes

Holy shit is there a lot of speed in this race, and everybody knows it.

:8: Tikvin Flew has a lot of my interest.


:3::4::7::8:

Best Gotham I have seen in years.
Actually a card with several good races.

3 really good prep races today that are all very bettable. :ThmbUp:

r5-11 !!
 

Great card.

I'm interested in races five through eleven at Aqueduct today.

it's actually an awesome racing menu today at many tracks. I think 68? races came up for me as interesting, nation wide. Was worried that the touch-and-go situation at Santa Anita may lead to a slow day, but this is a good day.

Every horse in the race except the 1 and 5 are front runners or within a length of the lead at either the first or second call.
The one is 30-1 and he deserves it but that is a juicy price. The 5 is a closer with rising speed figures (bris). Has won twice at the track and only loss was by a neck.
Haikal is my pick and my bet. Also a small saver on the 1.

Not real shocking, but The Dump could be a conveyor belt today.



Could set up for a pure speed melt down in this one. :ThmbUp:

I know Im not going to get the odds on Instagrand but I don't like 1/1.

:6: Too many questions for me to accept 1/1 on this horse. Coming from the sprints and first race is a graded route. Easy trip IMO last out. I like the workouts tho.

:7: Good race last out, I always like when they don't have a lot of other speeds on the outside. Was a bit wide during first turn last out

:8: Just have a hunch feeling that the horse had more than last race showed..


Looking at

:6: 3/2

:7: 3/1

:8: 6/1

If :6: Instagrand races like either of his 2-year old starts he will destroy this field.

That being said I got to look for a price. I used :5: Haikal in my horizontals.