Pegasus World Cup Invitational
 

From the linkage: "In a field where there is only one Grade 1 winner...." :eek:

Pretty far fall from the race's once-lofty goals.

Trying to remember if it was Quinn or Mark Cramer who emphasized "Grade 1 races are won by Grade 1 horses" i.e. don't expect surprise winners when there are multiple Grade 1 winners in the race.

We certainly don't get much chance to test that maxim these days.

Nimitz Class seems like a viable longshot, if one weren't so inclined to take a shorter price here.

#6 SENOR BUSCADOR (20-1)

Cigar Mile Day at AQU. Running style and odds for each winner.

1st - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 3/5
2nd - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 14/1
3rd - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 2/1
4th - PRESSED (sat 2nd; 4-wide) 3/1
5th - PRESSED (sat 3rd; 4-wide) 5/1
6th - PRESSED (sat 2nd; inside) 7/1
7th - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 1/1
8th - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 4/1
9th - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 8/5
10th - SPEED (wire to wire; inside) 9/1

Senor Buscador was one of the few closers who got into the exacta that day. One of the others, Guntown (from the 3rd race) won back at 8/1 on a fairer track.

Could be that the late run by Senor Buscador, while 8-wide, was heavily against the bias on that day, and deserves a look at long odds today.

Long odds? It's a terrible morning line.

The time I took to outline that and your only comment is about someone else's bad morning line? Whew...

The lines are off all day. Didia at 6:1 in the 10th? Signator 15:1 in the 11th? Making morning lines is an incredibly difficult job to do well, I couldn't do it, but you can't blow the easy ones. Senor Buscador is a relatively easy one.

I would not argue that. My point is more about a live runner in the big race that comes alive when layered over what appears to have been a significant track bias last time he ran. Whether he's 6-1, 15-1 or 20-1 I still think he's worth a play in that race.

What do you think he'll go off at? I'm guessing about 6-1.

There are some real doozies... the morning line is fucked

6:1 to 8:1 max feels close. He's interesting because of what you said but his running style is a bit of a concern on that track. However, I would agree you can't look at him as a 20:1 shot. I wouldn't bet him at 6:1 but don't think it's a terrible price. Feels fairish whatever that means:-)

In the Pegasus Turf I’m going to play Kingmax to find his way into the exotics at what should be double digit odds.
Must use the undefeated and very impressive #3 and will likely fade Warm Heart vs the boys after a lot of travel the last few months in the final start of her career.

Agree. Late runners like this are often fools gold. They often do their running after the race is already decided. Good luck today!

Pegasus is a gold mine.
 

looking at the pick 5, from races 9-13 :jump:


then I look at race 8 , the mile and a half McKnight?


I need a coffee or something :coffee::coffee:

:ThmbUp:

In the Pegasus, yea the :6: is a horse that's within the flow of the race.

I think up front :7: National Treasure will run a big one. He improved in the BC dirt mile.
Depending on how conservative the other pace in here is I see National Treasure either winning or getting in the top four.

The :2:, :3:, and the :6: Senor Buscador all should have a good chance to hit the board.

I'll throw something together w/ all four of these horses, but probably look at using 7=Key1 and 2,3,6=Key2.
Looking at Dynamic One in some extra tix penciled underneath horses.

I liked Dynamic One's recent work on January 20th.