Lexington Stakes
 

The :7: is scratched. I thought I was going to love this race and then I saw that the :2:, who is the morning line favorite, hasn't run in just over six months. I don't like betting races with horses off that long who are one of the obvious choices if you disregard the layoff. I rarely guess right! I am going to shock everyone with my selection so if you have a bad heart maybe you should stop reading. :D

:1: Secret Chat 15-1 ML All three of his races he has had horrible starts. What are the chances it happens four in a row? That is what I was thinking, not likely! Three solid races and the last was after over a four month layoff. This horse doesn't quit and a good start may be all that he needs. The longshot special of the Derby trail. THE PICK!

:2: The Wine Steward 5-2 ML Four great races but you wonder how bad the horse was injured and how ready he will be off the layoff. I am tossing him completely from the tri and super and hope he doesn't run one step. TOSS

:3: Dilger 12-1 ML It should be a battle between him and the :6: for who runs second last. TOSS

:4: Footprint 10-1 ML Another one who has had some bad luck at the start recently. The problem is he has absolutely zero speed and at Keenland that isn't good. Has an outside chance at finishing 3rd or 4th at a decent price.

:5: Hades 7-2 ML Had Fierceness run his race Hades would have been chasing a 47 half. Would he have held on for second? Not sure he would, so he looks better than he really is on paper. He really isn't that fast early and we will see with the two week turnaround. There is just something about him that I don't like and I can't put my finger on it. Blinkers on means he is going for the lead. Wouldn't be shocked if he ran in the money or out of the super.

:6: How's Ur Attitude 30-1 ML I say he loses to the :3: for second last. TOSS

:8: Encino 5-1 ML Big jockey change for this. What I said last week still applies today. I think he hits the back end of the tri or super.

:9: Liberal Arts 4-1 ML Another coming back in two weeks and Irad takes over. A must use in the exotics, of course I said that last time and he got into all sorts of trouble. Don't see two troubled trips in a row. The main threat to my longshot!

:10: Lucky Jeremy 8-1 ML My problem with him is that he never should have lost second in the Sunland Derby to Alotaluck. I wonder if they are going to try to rate him off of Hades or go for the lead. I think he is better suited as a stalker myself and if that is the case I think he has a strong chance at being in the super.

:1::9::10:::8::5:

QUICK STORY

About 30 years ago at Turfway, the second was a maiden race and I loved the :12: who was 30-1 on the ML. He had ran two races and lost by like 20 and 22 lengths. Don't know why I thought he couldn't lose so I go over to put 200 to win on him. No one from the DRF picked him in the top three and the guy who does all the horses had him dead last. I had wild dreams in my head of him going off 99-1 and me winning a fortune. The first flash of the tote board and he is 1-9 and goes off at 4-5 and wins easily. I was so pissed at the odds that I didn't bet. This has happened to me a few other times, not this dramatic of a difference but every time I pick a longshot they go off way lower than anyone ever expects. My reason for this story if you like the :1: I wouldn't expect 15-1 or higher. He could be the favorite!:lol:

Horses run well off layoffs at Keeneland. In a boutique meet like this, it is more normal than most, so the :2: rolling in off the long layoff with Maker would be zero surprise. The :59.4 near bullet at Churchill on 3/30 says he should be awake and live.

Partial to the :8: Encino who took down Epic Ride in the Battaglia with Epic Ride showing well this past weekend in the Blue Grass.

I'm gonna punt both :5: Hades and :9: Liberal Arts. Hades was faced with his first career adversity in the Florida Derby and completely tanked and showed nothing. Liberal Arts we've been waiting for his 2024 coming out party, and like Hades hasn't overcome any adversity. Thinking we'll see these two next time in the Summer series of 3YO races being refreshed and more prepared to give their best.

Gonna formulate tickets around :2::3::4::8: trying to get something on top of the :2:.

:3: Dilger may well be worth a stab at a likely very good price that should be even better than the 12/1 ML.

Anchoring the bottom of exotics with the :4:. Now that I said that, he will probably finish 5th.

The :2: was only a 1/2 length behind what was one of the early favorites for the Derby. This seems like a good landing spot and one can't complain about the pilot.

There's probably some intent here with the :5::8::9: looking for a Derby gate but each seemingly has a flaw. The Cox is most intriguing with ascending speed figures coming out of Turfway. Could pop at a fair price.

The :1: and :10: could be decent price plays to mix in the gimmicks.

I'll play the :2: and :8: on top and go from there.

I watched the Ark derby again to see what was going on with Liberal Arts. Shortly after the break Liberal Arts wanted to go be between horses and Gaffalione choked him off. There was room for Arts to make the move. Arts is pissed lol. Gaff moves him outside and Arts wants to go, Gaff chokes him off. LOL Arts is even more pissed. This time Arts bothers other horses. The positive I get out of this is Arts wants to be a racehorse, so I'm still on him. I liked Encino in the Bluegrass, and I wanted to play him and Just a Touch in that race. So I'm inclined to play him and Arts on Saturday. I want to see what bettors do with Encino before I commit because I want some odds on him. Looks like Palace made the connection lol that I hoped would remain in the weeds :) When I saw Epic Ride at 50 to 1, I bet a last minute exacta box with Just a Touch. If I'm playing Encino off his win over Epic Ride in the Battaglia, and Ride gets those kind of odds, I was a buyer...

I want to add I think Liberal Arts might be the best horse for the spring classic races and the Travers, but I already don't like this move of running him back in the Lexington

:2::8::10: Exacta / Trifecta Box

I liked the :2: Wine Steward back in the Breeders Futurity last year, surprised he hasn’t run since then but is a good horse and has been working out regularly so should get a piece, wouldn’t want to depend on him to win.

:8: Encino wanted to bet this horse when I was at Keeneland last week, thought he could get a piece, and now he’s in an easier race with a jockey upgrade, he has a chance to pull off the upset.

:10: Lucky Jeremy should appreciate the cut back in distance from his last race.

:4: Footprint could sneak into the bottom of the tri/ super

:5: Will be the horse that burns me as he returns to his Holy Bull form and also picks up red hot Jose Ortiz at this Keeneland meet.

:9: Liberal Arts seems like a good horse that keeps finding trouble but will probably run a good race if I don’t bet on him

Encino is so much better than Hades.

Hades looks like an underlay.

:8: Encino taking all the action and sits as the current 9/5 favorite 10MTP.

W, EX, and TRI.

Really thought I might get 6/1 on :8: Encino. Public and CAWs didn't invest hard on either the :5: Hades or :9: Liberal Arts.

Turns around a dreadful losing day at least. :ThmbUp:

When you have an opinion based on insight, sometimes it doesn't come out, but it does come out often enough to where you're Ahead of the game, baby boy.

Encino could have gotten those points 2 weeks ago. He would have been at least the place horse in Bluegrass. Now ho goes into the derby with 2 weeks between races. Bad management from Cox. Turfway has been producing some good derby horses. I’d say their races are due for an upgrade graded stakes wise.

I might have taken 6/5 if I'd known he's loose early. 9/5 only makes sense to whomever knows he's loose and the 10 is planning to sit second. There's a little too much behind the scenes going on for my taste buds even at this boutique venue.

Let's see what else fun happened, Loveberry gets left on Oeuvre and then stays buried. I dunno what that was, a work at HAW then ship down on three weeks rest just to sit chilly. Maybe it pays well to be out of the number completely who knows.

Hernandez on Hayes Strike has two different opportunities to get outside in a small field to make a run and by the time he has a third chance he's a step too late. Wth, that was soo bad... some guy keeps calling in on HRRN loves this guy, says he knows how to ride a horse and Geroux doesn't. I don't play enough to know for sure anymore but IMO Geroux looked quite a bit better today than he's being given credit for by that 'gent'.

Yea the 8th was interesting too in that I was actually thinking about Giant Game, then Gabby started touting how good he looked physically and as soon as she said that he appeared to start bleeding from the mouth profusely so I went to Hayes Strike instead and got screwed anyway. GG ran last.

Crushed the early double pretty good so I didn't get hurt today but I should just stay away until the Derby, I just see too much crap and too much annoys me these days. I think the game is more enjoyable when you actually don't even know what you're looking at. Sometimes I envy the noobs. :)

Not sure he is in with 40 points. Would need a defect, right?

Cox already has Catching Freedom and Just a Touch. Thinking Encino may well be Preakness bound. It is Godolphin, and I can definitely see them waiting to get a G1 Triple Crown win in the Preakness with this one as opposed to just getting a gate in the Kentucky Derby.

Preakness is probably the tougher spot

How so? The very tough Hades and Liberal Arts coming back? :)

I prefer Encino's running style for the Preakness anyway. He is a grinder. Grinders do well in the Preakness where closers rarely if ever win.