Pattern Recognition
 

For those who may consider "pattern recognition" little more than New Age mumbo-jumbo, consider the following:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-19950923

A specific quote should be of interest to all those who bet on horse races:
'Searching for such systems, he said, was "a complicated test to hand a computer", adding: "We're using human pattern recognition, which can disentangle that reasonably well to see the important stuff."'

In plain English, pattern recognition skills outperform the best computer analysis when complex data is involved. The whole trick is developing a methodology to train pattern recognition skills efficiently.

interesting stuff :ThmbUp:

Very !....

As strictly a pen and paper handicapper, that seems to make sense to me more and more, especially these days....

What I am saying is: When you reach a certain level of success and you can repeat it consistently, then it must be pattern recognition....Otherwise what would you call it ?

It is interesting, for me it's easy to get bogged down in data and figs - miss the forest for the trees.

Definitely interesting. Reassures me that my laziness in not pursuing computerized systems may be justified.

Are you an aspiring designer of such a training methodology, traynor?

I designed a multimedia training application for professional-level blackjack, developed to train non-players into experts in as short a period as possible. The basic algorithms can be used to teach almost any topic--the process is the same, only the content is changed.

However, to use it for thoroughbred races requires that the entire race analysis process be made explicit, and then broken down into small units. Once that is complete, the individual units need to be coded into a multimedia app. Relatively speaking, blackjack is simple--there are a specific finite number of card combinations that can be encountered. Horse racing has a lot more alternative scenarios.

It is coming along well, but much still needs to be done.

To avoid any confusion--the app I am developing for thoroughbred races will not be sold. That is, it is not being developed to "market." It will be either posted here free, or a link will be posted here to a free download. A lot depends on the final development language.

I agree, but not to knock computer applications in general. Once a human figures it out then a computer can do it better. The problem as I see it is how the computer is used when developing. The statistician's approach is putting the cart before the horse. Finding out that something occurs 1 in 4 times doesn't directly fit into the analysis of the game. The analysis is still handicapping like the old paper and pencil guy used to do it, but just more rapidly and accurately with computers. As Brad Free kept hammering away in his book Handicapping 101, it's the fundamentals stupid. After the application is built on handicapping logic then the statistics and ROI matter.

traynor..........?
 

traynor if you are stuck for ideas, steps, informal rules, patterns, etc.......why don't you outline them here and perhaps we can help you generate new thoughts, ideas........... or even email us privately!

Looks like the link is now out of date. I see an article about the double-double star discovered to have a planet -- I doubt that was the intended article.

In any event, a part of what Gladwell talks about in "Blink" is the subconscious being able to recognize patterns well before you are consciously aware. This is what I refer to as intuition in my own handicapping experiences.

Sometimes humans are too good at pattern recognition. Do all fleecy clouds look like an animal? Are those really images of Jesus or Virgin Mary in the pizza, tree, rock, window, grilled cheese sandwich etc.? Do daily track variants really gyrate greatly from day to day sans weather changes?

I use pattern recognition all the time, but it's a little like the strike rate of idea people. If 10% of their ideas pan out, they are ecstatic.

If patterns exist, they can be defined. So, to the pattern analysts here, what kinds of patterns do you see occurring when you "do the form"?

The two simple ones are workout within race and even race same position whole race. There are many more pattern that can easily be spotted in the past running lines and can be easily learned.

good post

So I guess by that you mean the Beyer "workout within race" where they make a move from back, then drop back again late, that kind of thing?

The 2nd one - even race same position whole race... do you mean even pace of race and they stay in the same spot? What's positive about that pattern? IE if a horse in an even race sits 4th throughout, is that good? Could you explain that one to me?