First time gelding numbers
 

'Wondering if anyone has calculated the ROI of first time geldings?

It would be pretty easy to do, but also hard to trust because the info isn't always as straight forward as it should be. Remember, it is first time since being reported as a gelding, but often times it is after the horse races once as a gelding.

I remembering reading somewhere that 40-60 days recovered is the sweet spot for best ROI. If I can find the study I'm thinking of, will post.

But even with those numbers, like CJ said, you almost never know the actual gelded date unless you just assume it was done shortly after their previous race.

Nobody who has observed from behind the the scenes the haphazard manner in which castrations get reported would touch this angle on a dare. Verification and accountability rarely even enter the equation.

In fact, most discrepancies concerning stones get caught by a sharp indentifier...or not at all.

I have in my notes the results of a study done quite some time ago. I don't know when, or who or the number of races but the ROI was $.76 overall for a 24% loss. The results for non maiden races was $1.01, a small 1% profit.

I fiddled with the angle back in 2012 and I bet a total of 138 races with a $.94 return a loss of 6%. I know it is not much but that is all I have. I gave it up because of all the reasons previous posters have mentioned plus it really is a lot of work and and so many times there are several in the same race so you bet more than one horse and so on. Actually, I wonder if the 2nd race back after being gelded could be the ticket here. I think 65% of all males get gelded at one time or another so it is a lot of work with inaccurate info. I don't really bother with it anymore as a stand alone angle.

I'm not so sure "1st time gelding" is always a positive anyway. I owned a piece of a horse that ran Beyer figures around 80 (plus or minus depending on the trip). After he was gelded he was calmer and less aggressive, but he completely lost interest in training and racing. There were no physical issues impacting his training or performance. He just lost all interest and declined immediately and significantly. Maybe there's a right time and wrong time and right set of circumstances and wrong set of circumstances. I don't know enough. But the assumption that it's always a positive is probably wrong.

nowadays with just about everyone and their grandmother having access to a database, ANY factors and the myriad combinations you can fathom are widely known. it's a pipedream to think one can find anything stored in the public records that has any value anymore.

I had no idea what the ROI is but first-time gelding never seemed like a particularly strong angle to me, just by observation. When a horse wins with a form reversal I often go back to see if there were any angles present and very often I've seen blinker changes, distance or surface changes, improved workout, or simply coming off a freshening, which is a big one (horse runs a bad race or two, they rest the horse to cure whatever was bothering it). Can't recall seeing too many first time geldings, if any.

it is the biggest equipment change in racing for sure.

In Barry Meadow's book "The skeptical Handicapper" He wrote based on statistics, there is no difference.

To get the real psychological effect of loss of hormones, castration needs to be done VERY early or it does not make that much of a difference.

Those who focus on appearance can often notice positive differences in appearance for first time geldings. We get to hear these from the various paddock analysts.

I'd ask you how you know that but I don't really want to go down that road.

Just a few days ago, I can't recall the horse or the race, but a first-time gelding kicked it at Gulfstream in fairly unexpected fashion.

I'm not sure that angle is really a thing. All I know is that, when I have tried it, it fails. When I look the other way, my sequence gets killed.

I have never managed to be on the right side of it.

Thanks to all who replied. Pretty much reflects my experience.
About as useful as the- "Attn: This un-published workout for "........