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-   -   Curlin "up against it" (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=36100)

porchy44 04-30-2007 10:49 PM

Curlin "up against it"
 
Curlin did not race at 2. No horse has won the Derby without racing at 2 since 1882.

Curlin has made just three starts. No horse with 3 or fewer starts has won the Deby since 1915.

He may be the race favorite or 2nd choice in the betting.

The Judge 04-30-2007 10:59 PM

I Go With HISTORY
 
iI will take my loumps. Three races will not make it.

boomman 04-30-2007 11:24 PM

Curlin
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by porchy44
Curlin did not race at 2. No horse has won the Derby without racing at 2 since 1882.

Curlin has made just three starts. No horse with 3 or fewer starts has won the Deby since 1915.

He may be the race favorite or 2nd choice in the betting.

porchy: I will take a stand against Curlin for all of the reasons you mentioned + I really think he beat NOTHING in the Arkansas Derby. If he wins as the 1st or 2nd choice in the Ky Derby I will gladly give him and his connections his "props", but I doubt I have much to worry about.....

Boomer

Indulto 04-30-2007 11:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by porchy44
Curlin did not race at 2. No horse has won the Derby without racing at 2 since 1882.

Curlin has made just three starts. No horse with 3 or fewer starts has won the Deby since 1915.

He may be the race favorite or 2nd choice in the betting.

AK Derby horses have run well in the KY Derby in recent years. Smarty won, Alex was a close 3rd, and Steppenwolfer was a distant third, but close to the 2nd place finisher. I don't understand why some of the bigger names bypassed the $1 million purse, but Curlin has proven much better than his competition so far and the further he runs, the more impressively he wins.

Vanquished OP foes subsequently did well. Teufelsburg was in the photo at KEE and Flying First Class won at CD. Curlin will be in all my vertical slots on Derby day, but so will others.

JustRalph 05-01-2007 12:15 AM

this reminds me of the old coin flip theory. Invoking the law of averages.

I don't think any other year has any bearing on the current one.

If he is best among this group, it doesn't matter what the hell has happen since 1800

Edward DeVere 05-01-2007 01:01 AM

While I firmly believe that any one of 10 horses or so could win this year, I'm having a really hard time getting past the two favorites, Curlin and Street Sense.

JustRalph 05-01-2007 01:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward DeVere
While I firmly believe that any one of 10 horses or so could win this year, I'm having a really hard time getting past the two favorites, Curlin and Street Sense.

I like this workout for Street Sense on 4-5 at CD. Although I think the form has it listed as occurring on 4 april .......prior to the bluegrass. He just looked great here.


http://mfile.akamai.com/29874/wmv/ke...ChurchHill.asx

not sure it has any value, after the Bluegrass. But I don't think any horse in the Bluegrass got hurt too bad,,,,,,,,considering the pace.

OTM Al 05-01-2007 09:17 AM

Curlin is going to have to beat me because I will not use him. If he does, so be it, but I just don't have faith in him. Has yet to look any of the big ones in the eye. That said I'm still on the Hard Spun bandwagon, though he will be used in the top spots in only a limited way. I am a hypocrite.....

DanG 05-01-2007 09:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JustRalph
this reminds me of the old coin flip theory. Invoking the law of averages.
I don't think any other year has any bearing on the current one.

I agree with Ralph that each event is completely independent. Obviously the lined is becoming blurred concerning “historical” trends in most sports.

Having said that…

The proposition is (possibly) taking less than 5-1 and asking this of the animal…


  • Go from MSW / GR3 / GR2 / GR1 with no margin for error…
  • Go from 7f / 8.5f / 9f / 10f with no margin for error…
  • Go from fields of questionable depth to 19 of the best his generation has to offer…
  • Face the fastest pace of his life to date.
  • All of that and more in a span of roughly 100 days.
Positives...

  • Obvious raw talent.
  • Strong pedigree evident by his 7 figure sale after his dominate MSW win.
  • Facing a crop where no on has yet stamped themselves a dominate runner.
  • Running over his “home” track where Helen Pitts trained him for months prior to his GP debut.
Like most betting propositions there is a combination of positive / negative angles. However, unlike most day to day gambles this one involves the once in a lifetime circus surrounding this event not to mention the most important factor…Potentially a relatively small return from speculation.

boomman 05-01-2007 09:39 AM

Curlin
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by DanG
I agree with Ralph that each event is completely independent. Obviously the lined is becoming blurred concerning “historical” trends in most sports.

Having said that…

The proposition is (possibly) taking less than 5-1 and asking this of the animal…

  • Go from MSW / GR3 / GR2 / GR1 with no margin for error…
  • Go from 7f / 8.5f / 9f / 10f with no margin for error…
  • Go from fields of questionable depth to 19 of the best his generation has to offer…
  • Face the fastest pace of his life to date.
  • All of that and more in a span of roughly 100 days.
Positives...
  • Obvious raw talent.
  • Strong pedigree evident by his 7 figure sale after his dominate MSW win.
  • Facing a crop where no on has yet stamped themselves a dominate runner.
  • Running over his “home” track where Helen Pitts trained him for months prior to his GP debut.
Like most betting propositions there is a combination of positive / negative angles. However, unlike most day to day gambles this one involves the once in a lifetime circus surrounding this event not to mention the most important factor…Potentially a relatively small return from speculation.

Excellent post Dan: Those were some of the points I was trying to make. I never like using a horse that is being asked to do something for the first time at a short price. If the price is right so be it, but if not, as the saying goes: "I'm from Missouri, you're gonna have to show me" LOL:D

Boomer

DanG 05-01-2007 10:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by boomman
I never like using a horse that is being asked to do something for the first time at a short price. If the price is right so be it, but if not, as the saying goes: "I'm from Missouri, you're gonna have to show me" LOL:D
Boomer

Boom,

From Missouri to NY, people can agree on that. It’s one of legendary Harvey Pack's oldest axioms…

Never bet a horse at a short price to do something it’s never done before”.

Of course Harvey also says…“There is nary a man alive who has paid a mortgage at 3/5” Rumor has it Dave Schwartz may not be paying his mortgage slamming 3/5, but I’ve heard he’s added at least added a nice addition. ;)

PS Boom: Sorry about your KC avatar getting traded. Dante Hall had a nice run for the Chiefs.

boomman 05-01-2007 11:00 AM

Dante Hall
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by DanG
Boom,

From Missouri to NY, people can agree on that. It’s one of legendary Harvey Pack's oldest axioms…

Never bet a horse at a short price to do something it’s never done before”.

Of course Harvey also says…“There is nary a man alive who has paid a mortgage at 3/5” Rumor has it Dave Schwartz may not be paying his mortgage slamming 3/5, but I’ve heard he’s added at least added a nice addition. ;)

PS Boom: Sorry about your KC avatar getting traded. Dante Hall had a nice run for the Chiefs.

Thanks Dan! I'm going to miss him for sure, as it was a joy to watch him. He had sort of worn out his welcome with his brooding last year though, as notice they let him go only for a 5th round choice. Imagine what he was worth a few years before! Boomer

Bruddah 05-01-2007 11:03 AM

DanG's post is an excellent, and well thought out
 
I agree with everything he has written, but there is this knawing viualization of Curlin winning the Ky. Dby., which is haunting me.

Last years Derby winner (Barbaro) was the first winner, with Raise A Native (RAN) breeding on the Dam's sire line. This Jinx was broken with a sampling of more than 60+ starters dating back to 1987. When others speak of a Derby Jinx, I have to ask how many starters have tried it, not how many years. I believe the Jinx about Ky Dby starters, with no 2 year old foundation, is more myth than fact. Primarily because, no one can offer up the number of starters having tried, especially in modern days. My thought is the sampling would be very small, while the total number of years might be high.

Curlin is definitely capable of winning the roses and being the best of his generation. If he doesn't win, it won't be because of a mythical Derby jinx. Especially one with no facts regarding the number of starters having tried. It will be because (A) he wasn't good enough, (B) bad post position (C) poor racing luck. Good Luck to all Saturday :ThmbUp:

boomman 05-01-2007 11:14 AM

More curlin notes
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Bruddah
I agree with everything he has written, but there is this knawing viualization of Curlin winning the Ky. Dby., which is haunting me.

Last years Derby winner (Barbaro) was the first winner, with Raise A Native (RAN) breeding on the Dam's sire line. This Jinx was broken with a sampling of more than 60+ starters dating back to 1987. When others speak of a Derby Jinx, I have to ask how many starters have tried it, not how many years. I believe the Jinx about Ky Dby starters, with no 2 year old foundation, is more myth than fact. Primarily because, no one can offer up the number of starters having tried, especially in modern days. My thought is the sampling would be very small, while the total number of years moght be high.

Curlin is definitely capable of winning the roses and being the best of his generation. If he doesn't win, it won't be because of a mythical Derby jinx. Especially one with no facts regarding the number of starters having tried. It will be because (A) he wasn't good enough, (B) bad post position (C) poor racing luck. Good Luck to all Saturday :ThmbUp:

Bruddah: I agree that Curlin certainly could win and I've never been one to draw many conclusions from the unraced angle, dosage, etc. However, having said that (and one poster on here pointed out that many solid Ky Derby horses have come from The Ark Derby and I totally agree with that, having backed Smarty Jones in a BIG way a few years ago) I just really think The Ark Derby this year was one of the weakest fields they have had in many years . If you look at the entire Oaklawn meet, it was possibly the worst of their storied history: short fields, offtrack handle down 30% etc. So using your multiple choice method above let me choose (A)....I also would like to wish everyone a great Derby and success at the "windows"!

Boomer

DirtTrack 05-01-2007 02:11 PM

I like what I am hearing :jump:
Most folks throwing out the potential winner due to racing lore that are falling apart after the turn of the century.
Calling the fields Curlin faced weak based on his easy wins (I know they were not "strong" fields but neither were the other preps)
Most said the same of Smarty and Alex - Grindstone was hardly even mentioned Derby week...

With all the negatives I hear on Curlin it is doubtful he will go off as the favorite and we will more than likely see good exotic prices when he is presented the roses :ThmbUp:

Has not been ran to death like Puplit was - in fact has not even broke a sweat while trouncing opponents that would have been highly praised if they would have won the same races.

I do understand how hard the derby is to win and the best horse does not always get it done but it would take real idiot to throw Curlin out of the exotics :rolleyes:

But PLEASE continue to talk about what a slouch of a horse he is so I can win decent $$$ :cool:

ps...AK = Alaska - AR = Arkansas
but you don't have to believe that fact either ;)

crownx 05-01-2007 02:14 PM

This horse will not go off at even money and will also lose. Steven won't have the benefit of those old blind eye stewards of OP.


Curlin is the media hype horse. Every year they need one and he is it.

LemonSoupKid 05-01-2007 02:16 PM

it's easy
 
to say that one horse won't win. and by the way, no one remembers that you said a horse wouldn't win, because it's not much of a prediction. conversely, they say you lose when you picked 1 of 20 TO WIN, and it didn't happen. interesting how human beings think of things

LSK

ps- anyone have data on how often favorites win in horse racing? i always had heard 33% but has that held in the last 10 years?

DirtTrack 05-01-2007 02:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by crownx
Steven won't have the benefit of those old blind eye stewards of OP.

Lost me on this one - care to explain?

boomman 05-01-2007 02:34 PM

Favorites/Curlin
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid
to say that one horse won't win. and by the way, no one remembers that you said a horse wouldn't win, because it's not much of a prediction. conversely, they say you lose when you picked 1 of 20 TO WIN, and it didn't happen. interesting how human beings think of things

LSK

ps- anyone have data on how often favorites win in horse racing? i always had heard 33% but has that held in the last 10 years?

LSK: The % of winning favorites has held steady at around 30-35% over the last several years, and although I am one on this thread that said I don't believe Curlin will win, (I stand by that) I was really making the larger point that I just don't think as the favorite or 2nd choice (again given the % above and a 20 horse field) that it would make any fiscal sense to wager on ANY short price horse in The Derby, Curlin Included!

Boomer

DanG 05-01-2007 02:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DirtTrack
I do understand how hard the derby is to win and the best horse does not always get it done but it would take real idiot to throw Curlin out of the exotics :rolleyes:

But PLEASE continue to talk about what a slouch of a horse he is so I can win decent $$$ :cool:

DT,

IMHO: You took several points out of context and made several exaggerations, but these two stood out to me. “Slouch”…I must have missed where someone suggested this. :confused:

I’m not saying he will go off near this price, but at 1/9 for example, only an “idiot” would bet him. Gambling is only our perception of probabilities, nothing more. To state only an “idiot” would do anything without seeing the price offered is…well…with all due respect, you know the rest.

LemonSoupKid 05-01-2007 02:50 PM

Boom
 
What is "short" to you in the Derby though? I tend to agree with you, but this horse could be a monster. I haven't made my final picks (I will Wednesday night) but he's one I'm considering in some fashion, Mr. Curlin.

In any case, what is the minimum odds that you would take Curlin (unless you don't like him at all). I think Street Sense will be the favorite, around 5 or so.

LSK

DirtTrack 05-01-2007 03:08 PM

DG:
This idiot collected over $300 profit when Curlin went off below even odds on 4/14 - will gladly be called stupid and cash tickets any day ;)

Anyone changing their picks based on probable off odds is probably throwing out a lot of winners - as mentioned above 30-35% of favorites win races

Curlin will probably go off at about 4-1 (I seem to remember Smarty around that and he had 5x the hype)

The hype:
Street Sense since winning the BCJ
NoBiz - media loves the name and received most attention last 2 months
HardSpun - Lanes End and blazing workout
AnyGSat - competed with Street Sense
ScattDaddy - beat NoBiz and won FOY and FloridaDerby

Couple of others will get a lot of play as well - will not be a heavy favorite at post time

Curlin is as good as I have seen in the 23+ years I have followed and will play a part in the final outcome Saturday :)

LemonSoupKid 05-01-2007 03:19 PM

fair enough
 
Scat Daddy is certainly not hype. He's probably the most accomplished and no one talks about him.

LSK

crownx 05-01-2007 03:20 PM

Dirt Track, your from AR, so you know exactly what goes on there. I am not here to start trouble.

Curlin is a fast horse, I am handicapping past the OP preps. Curlin looked great vs those fields, never challenged and never headed in the str, clear running room easy trip. The Derby will test that,and at 2-1 I would sit on my hands. He is a better bet, if he wins the derby at 2-5 in a six horse preakness field. I personally llike many here dont' think he can pass the challenge, I have no magic eight ball, just years of handicapping just as you and many others here have.

OTM Al 05-01-2007 03:27 PM

You honestly think he's better than both Afleet Alex and Smarty Jones? I really don't see it. He seems more Lawyer Ron to me that either of those 2 and those are just the last 3 years in Arkansas, let alone the other 20 you've seen. If its true, then you got money in the bank coming your way with 0 risk because the first 2 on my list would bury this years group. I'm sticking with my prediction of 10th or worse for him.

chickenhead 05-01-2007 03:35 PM

its all about the odds. I don't think there is any horse in here that warrants play at 6-1 or below. That said, I don't like Curlin at 10-1.

DirtTrack 05-01-2007 03:35 PM

crownx,

I have always thought OP was one of the better run tracks I have played.
Was the shocker incident in the Derby a few years back but outside of that it is about as clean as track as you will find (but we are still talking horse racing...)
Back review of the form and can almost always see how the longshot winner was missed and so on...

Rare occasion any horse goes off at 2-1 in the derby and betting appears to be wide open in this one so I am puzzled on why several are wanting to throw out a horse for low odds that will probably not even be the favorite at post time?

Good Luck to all on Saturday
We will all need it no matter who the winner is :D

DirtTrack 05-01-2007 03:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OTM Al
You honestly think he's better than both Afleet Alex and Smarty Jones?

YES - have posted that about 3 times on PA ;)
and not just because he ran at OP
Thought Lawyer Ron was over-rated and he was but Curlin is a special horse
Go watch his race replays and see that he has the style needed to win the Derby (stalker not too far back) and is a push button horse that takes off when Robbie lets him go
Is a lot like Smarty but seems to have more down the stretch

Ron 05-01-2007 03:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DirtTrack
I am puzzled on why several are wanting to throw out a horse for low odds that will probably not even be the favorite at post time?


The odds aren't the main reason why Curlin isn't bettable.

46zilzal 05-01-2007 04:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ron
The odds aren't the main reason why Curlin isn't bettable.

INEXPERIENCE is a big one.......

Tapit had the same problem as did many others over the years. Exceptions: Fusaichi Pegasus, Barbaro but even these two had more chances it get bumped and fight back than the "possible" superstar here.

This one has done everything asked of him, BUT imagine the noise the pace pressure (which is alway nuts on that day and in that race). I would be concerned.

uncbossfan 05-01-2007 04:26 PM

I'm really torn on Curlin. He has been very visually impressive, but I am going to hate the price...

One thing I don't like hearing is - he has yet to beat anybody. Well, have you ever considered no other trainers wanted to run against him in the Arkansas Derby? He can only beat the horses that are entered. I'm playing a large tri ticket and will include him in all places, but hope he does not win. No way am I going to let him beat me tho...

JPinMaryland 05-01-2007 04:35 PM

If Fu Peg had run like 2 days earlier, then that 2 year old jinx thing woudl have been broken. You really think horse racing karma depends on what day of the week FuPeg raced in Dec 1999??

Curlin's style actually does not work for him. stalkers dont win anywhere near as well as closers, and not quite as well as presser/front runners if you combine those. That said, stalkers seem to have done very well the last 5 or 6 years or so...

CUrlin does not remind me of Lawyer Ron because that horse never relaxed at all. One of those OP races he was climbing and just rarin to go. You dont see that with Curlin.

One trend that is more scarier than 2 year old jinx, or the 3 prep jinx is that favorites have not done well as a rule here. I dont know what the winning% for Ky Derby favs. is but I'm thinking it is less than 33%. That trend seems more of a real threat.

Nice comparison to Tapit. :lol:

uncbossfan 05-01-2007 04:47 PM

Looks like the Derby fav has won 50 of the 132 runnings or almost 38%, but only 2 of those have been since '79...

So for the last 26 runnings, the fav is winning at a 7% clip, and the 106 yrs before that, it was at 45%

Why do you think the sudden change occured?? Was there any new introductions to the handicapping world around that time that has swayed bettors opinions? More horses capable of winning, or shoudl I say less horses capable of pulling off the Derby as much as they are babied sometimes... curiosu to your thoughts.

Bruddah 05-01-2007 05:19 PM

Don't Agree here
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 46zilzal
INEXPERIENCE is a big one.......

Tapit had the same problem as did many others over the years. Exceptions: Fusaichi Pegasus, Barbaro but even these two had more chances it get bumped and fight back than the "possible" superstar here.

This one has done everything asked of him, BUT imagine the noise the pace pressure (which is alway nuts on that day and in that race). I would be concerned.

Curlin has handled every race with professionalism. If you have kept up with this field of horses, it's not true of most. Anything from cotton in their ears, to blinkers, to shadow rolls and being able to correct their drifting or shyness down the stretch.

Let's also remember, Domincan was scheduled to run in the $1M Arkansas Derby( as a 2nd or 3rd favorite), but pulled out only days before, to engage a supposed, (tougher?) group of competitors in the $750k Blue Grass? (as a long shot) Obviously, Darin Miller was correct in placing Dominican in the Blue Grass. In hindsight it seems it may have been called ducking Curlin. On a straight up bet, I wager Curlin places better than Dominican in the Ky Derby. (JMHO) :)

Bruddah 05-01-2007 05:58 PM

My guess is
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by uncbossfan
Looks like the Derby fav has won 50 of the 132 runnings or almost 38%, but only 2 of those have been since '79...

So for the last 26 runnings, the fav is winning at a 7% clip, and the 106 yrs before that, it was at 45%

Why do you think the sudden change occured?? Was there any new introductions to the handicapping world around that time that has swayed bettors opinions? More horses capable of winning, or shoudl I say less horses capable of pulling off the Derby as much as they are babied sometimes... curiosu to your thoughts.

The size of the Derby field increased to 20 participants, since 1979. Makes it a much more difficult assignment, for the favorite. Also, the best horse doesn't always win i.e Afleet Alex. (JMHO)

LemonSoupKid 05-01-2007 06:04 PM

Tapit
 
Tapit is a terrible comparison. That Derby was set up for front runners, especially good ones like Smarty Jones and Lion Heart, not for closers, as tons of much was kicked up in Tapit's face (and he still go to like 8th although he broke nearly dead last).

Be fair.

46zilzal 05-01-2007 06:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid
Tapit is a terrible comparison. That Derby was set up for front runners, especially good ones like Smarty Jones and Lion Heart, not for closers, as tons of much was kicked up in Tapit's face (and he still go to like 8th although he broke nearly dead last).

Comment was made on a single factor, nothing else, that is why I put in caps: INEXPERIENCE, subtantiated by 50 plus years of the same factor in this race...

46zilzal 05-01-2007 06:53 PM

Quote from The Thoroughbred Times: "A juvenile campaign is virtually a prerequisite for winning the Kentucky Derby. Only ONE colt, Apollo, has won the Derby without racing as a two year old, and he accomplished that feat in 1882, in the eigth running.
In recent years, ONLY THREE have won after making only one start as a two year old. Tim Tam won in 1958 after finishing unplaced in his only start at two. Also unplaced at two was Lucky Debonair, who won he 1965 Derby. Fusiaichi Pegasus finished second in his only start at two and won the 2000 edition as the 2.3/1 favorite."

History says it is a risky wager no matter how much this one fits the pattern.

DanG 05-01-2007 07:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DirtTrack
Is a lot like Smarty but seems to have more down the stretch

I’m going to evaluate Curlin like I evaluate any gamble. For the record after his GP MSW win I wrote in my notes “Gr-1 ability”. I also made a mental note that if they try to compress a 90+ day run for the roses into him it will be a major challenge. I would believe this if 10 Derby winners had never raced at two…

I can’t let this one statement pass in good conscious. Curlin is a very talented horse, but at the same age he couldn’t hold Smarty’s bed pan IMO. Smarty Jones Rebel stakes was SO much faster than the majority of figure services reported it. The Beyer was off by a good 10%. Unlike many “hyped” horses, Smarty was actually underrated IMO.

rrbauer 05-01-2007 07:15 PM

Last year it was Barbaro who was mistrained, hadn't had enuf experience,
best races on turf and was way too rested coming into the Yum Yum Derby.

Result: He kicked ass by the biggest margin in 20+ years.

Either you know somethiing about this game or you don't. If you have any idea about how a good race horse looks and runs then you won't be here pissing on Curlin. All he has done is gone from a green race horse with tons of raw talent into a badass race horse with tons of raw talent. If you saw his debut and then saw his last race and aren't impressed with his maturity then you should go bet on the bicycle races. He may not win because a lot in the Derby depends on the draw and racing luck, but to just summarily dismiss him is somewhere between stupid and dumb.


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