- - Saratoga Race 8
( http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=146617)
Saratoga Race 8
:9: is 2-1 going to the gate.
Just before the gate opens, drops to to 1-2.
Bobbles, breaks dead last, trails the field around the turn and down the backstretch. Goes back to 2-1.
Bold wide move, wins the race. 2-1 shows.
Can anyone validate the 1-2 flash? I am sure I saw it happen. I bet the horse ans was watch for a late drop.
Seems funny it went back to 2-1 AFTER a bad break.
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Robert Fischer |
08-10-2018 06:58 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
(Post 2353839)
:9: is 2-1 going to the gate.
Just before the gate opens, drops to to 1-2.
Bobbles, breaks dead last, trails the field around the turn and down the backstretch. Goes back to 2-1.
Bold wide move, wins the race. 2-1 shows.
Can anyone validate the 1-2 flash? I am sure I saw it happen. I bet the horse ans was watch for a late drop.
Seems funny it went back to 2-1 AFTER a bad break.
|
Good question. Would also like to see the printout/odds-data from anyone who has those.
I didn't personally notice the :9: either way.
I can see that on the replay the :6: (word was out that the barn run by Brown's former assistant had a runner today in the :6:) moved from 9/2 to 4/1 entering the gate, and then was flashed as 5/2 in the graphic as they hit the stretch (apparently 2.7-1 from final chart odds). Jorge Abreu is a class act :ThmbUp: and he went out on his own after working for Chad Brown. It's great to see him working with some of these horses that Brown recently had, and some of the same owners, and sometimes squaring-off against his former boss in the same races. Personally passed the race, but that would be interesting if the :9: had a major cancel because of the break (as well as seeing how much money shifted to :6: on a lesser note).
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Today, race 2, the :4: gets hammered to 4-5 late, never lifts a foot - not in contention at any point in the race. Off the board.
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Robert Fischer |
08-11-2018 03:54 PM |
would be cool if some of the guys here with odds data could post
Race 6 today - WHY the heck did the :6: DERBY DATE drop in odds to 6/1?? I mean, I know he had a dream break on top of the field, and subsequently every chance to win, but we can't the break right? Who the heck pounded him late at the 'last second' before the gates opened? You had several interesting horses in there and the :6: should have been 15/1.
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jay68802 |
08-11-2018 04:14 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
(Post 2354231)
would be cool if some of the guys here with odds data could post
Race 6 today - WHY the heck did the :6: DERBY DATE drop in odds to 6/1?? I mean, I know he had a dream break on top of the field, and subsequently every chance to win, but we can't the break right? Who the heck pounded him late at the 'last second' before the gates opened? You had several interesting horses in there and the :6: should have been 15/1.
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Even though I played the horse, the drop surprised me also. I was thinking 8 - 10-1, not 6-1.
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Robert Fischer |
08-11-2018 04:21 PM |
Boy:jump: they timed that one perfectly.
He was 8/1 as they were nearing the gate
^Went 'UP' to 9/1 as they loaded.
then the odds graphic drops off the replay video.
At the break he was 7/1 and then 6/1 mid-race.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
(Post 2354238)
Even though I played the horse, the drop surprised me also. I was thinking 8 - 10-1, not 6-1.
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I mean yea, he was a 'cool' play. Coach FTS and son of cool warrior Will Take Charge :ThmbUp:
I can see using or throwing a few bucks on a gut feeling. I was very surprised that it was a massive odds-impacting wager, and the timing of the odds displayed graphics was at best an awkward appearing coincidence.
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jay68802 |
08-11-2018 04:35 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
(Post 2354241)
I can see using or throwing a few bucks on a gut feeling. I was very surprised that it was a massive odds-impacting wager, and the timing of the odds displayed graphics was at best an awkward appearing coincidence.
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And in this game, I firmly believe in "coincidence's".:rolleyes:
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Jeff P |
08-11-2018 04:37 PM |
FWIW, the #6 was about 9-2 on my line.
And yes, I waited until I saw the first horse loaded into the gate before pulling the trigger.
But given the size of the pools at SAR - somehow I doubt my meager tickets were responsible for the odds drop. (More likely it was someone who bets at least 20X more than me.)
Also, FWIW, I didn't think he was getting a dream trip. In order for the horse to win the race outright I thought the best chance involved Saez keeping him a few paths off the rail. (Which didn't happen.)
-jp
.
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Jeff P |
08-11-2018 07:14 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff P
(Post 2354250)
FWIW, the #6 was about 9-2 on my line.
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I don't want anyone to think I pulled 9-2 out of thin air.
Below is what I have in my database for 7f dirt races at SAR going back to 2012.
The first table has columns for W-P-S and displays what would have happened if the player had made a $2.00 W-P-S bet on every starter in the sample:
Code:
query start: 8/11/2018 2:19:14 PM
query end: 8/11/2018 2:19:14 PM
elapsed time: 0 seconds
Data Window Settings:
Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2_NYRA_DOMAIN.mdb
999 Divisor Odds Cap: None
SQL UDM Plays Report: Hide
SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
WHERE TRACK='SAR'
AND INTSURFACE=1
AND DIST = 1540
AND [DATE] >= #07-01-2012#
AND [DATE] <= #08-10-2018#
ORDER BY [DATE], TRACK, RACE
Data Summary Win Place Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals 3275.40 3258.00 3291.30
Bet -4122.00 -4122.00 -4122.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L -846.60 -864.00 -830.70
Wins 262 516 771
Plays 2061 2061 2061
PCT .1271 .2504 .3741
ROI 0.7946 0.7904 0.7985
Avg Mut 12.50 6.31 4.27
The next table shows the above sample broken out by rank for a factor in JCapper called EarlyConsensus:
Code:
By: SQL-F09 Rank (EarlyConsensus)
Rank P/L Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact AvgMut
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 109.30 514.00 1.2126 55 257 .2140 1.6835 11.33
2 -82.90 520.00 0.8406 47 260 .1808 1.4220 9.30
3 119.00 580.00 1.2052 41 290 .1414 1.1121 17.05
4 8.80 566.00 1.0155 39 283 .1378 1.0841 14.74
5 -240.60 506.00 0.5245 32 253 .1265 0.9950 8.29
6 -286.70 462.00 0.3794 19 231 .0823 0.6470 9.23
7 -134.40 366.00 0.6328 17 183 .0929 0.7308 13.62
8 -116.20 260.00 0.5531 7 130 .0538 0.4236 20.54
9 -128.00 166.00 0.2289 3 83 .0361 0.2843 12.67
10 -63.40 92.00 0.3109 1 46 .0217 0.1710 28.60
11 -46.00 46.00 0.0000 0 23 .0000 0.0000 0.00
12 -28.00 28.00 0.0000 0 14 .0000 0.0000 0.00
13 -12.00 12.00 0.0000 0 6 .0000 0.0000 0.00
14 54.50 4.00 14.6250 1 2 .5000 3.9332 58.50
Imo, 7f is one of those distances where most players have a tendency to think early speed is suspect.
But the data over the past seven years for 7f on the dirt at SAR tells a different story.
I'm using a logisitic regression model that I developed myself.
Early speed is one of the factors in the model and the coefficients for the factors in the model are unique for each track-surface-dist --
Meaning that if the same race had been run at say 7f on the Tapeta at Woodbine:
I very well may have come up with 15-1 for the same horse.
But here, at 7f on the dirt at SAR, the model came up with 9-2.
I Hope I got most of that out in a way that makes sense,
-jp
.
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
(Post 2353839)
:9: is 2-1 going to the gate.
Just before the gate opens, drops to to 1-2.
Bobbles, breaks dead last, trails the field around the turn and down the backstretch. Goes back to 2-1.
Bold wide move, wins the race. 2-1 shows.
Can anyone validate the 1-2 flash? I am sure I saw it happen. I bet the horse ans was watch for a late drop.
Seems funny it went back to 2-1 AFTER a bad break.
|
Where were you getting your odds from? I don't think there's anything to support this claim at all, maybe you had a faulty provider. If there's proof to the contrary I'd love to see it
|
Robert Fischer |
08-14-2018 03:57 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by SG4
(Post 2355374)
Where were you getting your odds from? I don't think there's anything to support this claim at all, maybe you had a faulty provider. If there's proof to the contrary I'd love to see it
|
CJ posted some detailed 'flash-by-flash' timestamped tote info (tweeted by Ed Derosa /twitter) after that brazen Firenze Fire betting coup.
I don't know where to find that type of tote data, or I would check and post the :9:'s data, as well as some of the others in this thread.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff P
(Post 2354341)
I don't want anyone to think I pulled 9-2 out of thin air.
Below is what I have in my database for 7f dirt races at SAR going back to 2012.
The first table has columns for W-P-S and displays what would have happened if the player had made a $2.00 W-P-S bet on every starter in the sample:
Code:
query start: 8/11/2018 2:19:14 PM
query end: 8/11/2018 2:19:14 PM
elapsed time: 0 seconds
Data Window Settings:
Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2_NYRA_DOMAIN.mdb
999 Divisor Odds Cap: None
SQL UDM Plays Report: Hide
SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
WHERE TRACK='SAR'
AND INTSURFACE=1
AND DIST = 1540
AND [DATE] >= #07-01-2012#
AND [DATE] <= #08-10-2018#
ORDER BY [DATE], TRACK, RACE
Data Summary Win Place Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals 3275.40 3258.00 3291.30
Bet -4122.00 -4122.00 -4122.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L -846.60 -864.00 -830.70
Wins 262 516 771
Plays 2061 2061 2061
PCT .1271 .2504 .3741
ROI 0.7946 0.7904 0.7985
Avg Mut 12.50 6.31 4.27
The next table shows the above sample broken out by rank for a factor in JCapper called EarlyConsensus:
Code:
By: SQL-F09 Rank (EarlyConsensus)
Rank P/L Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact AvgMut
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 109.30 514.00 1.2126 55 257 .2140 1.6835 11.33
2 -82.90 520.00 0.8406 47 260 .1808 1.4220 9.30
3 119.00 580.00 1.2052 41 290 .1414 1.1121 17.05
4 8.80 566.00 1.0155 39 283 .1378 1.0841 14.74
5 -240.60 506.00 0.5245 32 253 .1265 0.9950 8.29
6 -286.70 462.00 0.3794 19 231 .0823 0.6470 9.23
7 -134.40 366.00 0.6328 17 183 .0929 0.7308 13.62
8 -116.20 260.00 0.5531 7 130 .0538 0.4236 20.54
9 -128.00 166.00 0.2289 3 83 .0361 0.2843 12.67
10 -63.40 92.00 0.3109 1 46 .0217 0.1710 28.60
11 -46.00 46.00 0.0000 0 23 .0000 0.0000 0.00
12 -28.00 28.00 0.0000 0 14 .0000 0.0000 0.00
13 -12.00 12.00 0.0000 0 6 .0000 0.0000 0.00
14 54.50 4.00 14.6250 1 2 .5000 3.9332 58.50
Imo, 7f is one of those distances where most players have a tendency to think early speed is suspect.
But the data over the past seven years for 7f on the dirt at SAR tells a different story.
I'm using a logisitic regression model that I developed myself.
Early speed is one of the factors in the model and the coefficients for the factors in the model are unique for each track-surface-dist --
Meaning that if the same race had been run at say 7f on the Tapeta at Woodbine:
I very well may have come up with 15-1 for the same horse.
But here, at 7f on the dirt at SAR, the model came up with 9-2.
I Hope I got most of that out in a way that makes sense,
-jp
.
|
That is awesome stuff. I give you credit for valuing the early speed from that horse. A lot of players thought he may well make the lead, but didn't think he was enough horse to contend. 9-2 is really smart. I think maybe 8/1(my personal assignment, and I would assume that he'd be >10/1 in the public's eye in that field that featured some prospects) or so would have been my guess. If I could have bet after that dream-break 3/1 - 7/2.
|
sour grapes |
08-15-2018 07:54 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by SG4
(Post 2355374)
Where were you getting your odds from? I don't think there's anything to support this claim at all, maybe you had a faulty provider. If there's proof to the contrary I'd love to see it
|
hes wrong ,i had a bet on the race and the horse was always 2-1.
the guy seems to exaggerate quite a bit.
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Quote:
Can anyone validate the 1-2 flash?
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Yeah, that is just exaggeration. :rolleyes:
RIF.
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sour grapes |
08-15-2018 02:15 PM |
it seems like no one saw what you saw,maybe your just paranoid.
|
Robert Fischer |
08-15-2018 02:22 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by sour grapes
(Post 2355684)
it seems like no one saw what you saw,maybe your just paranoid.
|
He thought he saw it. Flip a coin.
Instead of personal attacks, we should have access to the tote data, and look at the flash-by-flash prices.
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