William Ziemba Podcast
 

Just posted in another thread, but here's a Chat With Traders podcast William Ziemba did not loo long ago. Mentions some interesting horse racing stuff, including a lawsuit with which he's testifying as an expert witness. I've included some links to lawsuit material to which I think he's referring. Makes for a fascinating read. I was never able to find the resolution for the case, so I'd be curious if anyone has heard anything through the grapevine. The professor involved is also the professor Bill Benter mentions in one of his talks

Podcast:
Lawsuits:
https://webb-site.com/codocs/HCA2352_2012_160226.pdf
https://www.hongkongcaselaw.com/cate...3%B4%E9%AB%98/


*Chat with traders is pretty great btw. Some other interesting interviewees he's had on were Ed Thorp and Victor Haghani (trader from Long Term Capital Management).

referenced court case discussion starts at 1:04. Q) "Stock Market, Horse Racing, NfL, which is easier to make money? A) Stock market, much easier." Transaction cost being the significant difference. "Rank and file much more sophisticated in sports betting". Good insight on the world of whales from the perspective of someone who knows how to quantify. Thank you for the link.

Thanks Jerry for the link, interesting section in the interview about Benter. Anyone have an opinion on William Ziemba books-appears he issued one in 2018 (Dr Z "Beat the racetrack")? It appears he is heavy on statistic models combined with Kelly criterion so it probably not light reading but wanted to make know if any can say that it is not over the head for the average capper. Thanks in advance.

My copy is dated 1987 so this one is likely a re-issue. I see they describe it as a 'Betting Classic' on Amazon.
It was okay in it's time if you were a place/show bettor but the math is pretty hard to do now that most serious betting seems to happen in the last 60 seconds.

Totally Untrue! Particularly in Hong Kong.

Besides why would anyone who's making a serious wager wait that long and potentially get shut out?

Yes
 

Exactly. Below, I've linked a study of a test of the Ziemba pool arbitrage technique featured in 'Beat the Racetrack'. The authors found that the edge now disappears when all the commingled money (ca. 50%!!) comes in after betting closes, an aspect of handicapping with which we are now all too familiar. Apparently in the new edition, Ziemba makes it sound like he can still get +EV bets down at the last minute, but it seems he plays only on the big days, Derby e.g., when there is a guarantee of uninformed money in the pools. However, he does ackowledge that the late money is a real obstacle.



http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc...=rep1&type=pdf

Thank you for the insightful observation.

Publications that Zeimba has authored, co-authored, or edited
 

1 Worldwide Asset and Liability Modeling (Publications of the Newton Institute) http://www.amazon.com/dp/0521571871

2 World Scientific Reference on Handbook of the Economics of Wine (in 2 Volumes) (World Scientific Handbook in Financial Economics) http://www.amazon.com/dp/9814740578

3 Turkish Flat Weaves: Introduction to the Weaving and Culture of Anatolia http://www.amazon.com/dp/090590625X

4 Turkish Flat Waeves. http://www.amazon.com/dp/B003BRZFCW

5 The World Scientific Handbook of Futures Markets (World Scientific Handbook in Financial Economics) http://www.amazon.com/dp/9811203024

6 The World Scientific Handbook of Futures Markets (World Scientific Handbook in Financial Economics Series 5) http://www.amazon.com/dp/B014OT4GGG

7 The Stochastic Programming Approach to Asset, Liability, and Wealth Management http://www.amazon.com/dp/0943205654

8 The Adventures of a Modern Renaissance Academic in Investing and Gambling (World Scientific Series in Finance Book 12) http://www.amazon.com/dp/B075YFR3J6

9 Stock Market Crashes:Predictable and Unpredictable and What to do About Them (World Scientific Series in Finance Book 13) http://www.amazon.com/dp/B0763M9W8Y

10 Stochastic Programming:Applications in Finance, Energy, Planning and Logistics (World Scientific Series in Finance Book 4) http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00AH7UPII

11 Stochastic Optimization Models in Finance (2006 Edition) (World Scientific Handbook in Financial Economics) http://www.amazon.com/dp/981256800X

12 Security Market Imperfections in Worldwide Equity Markets (Publications of the Newton Institute) http://www.amazon.com/dp/0521571383

13 Scenarios for Risk Management and Global Investment Strategies http://www.amazon.com/dp/0470319240

14 Problems in Portfolio Theory and the Fundamentals of Financial Decision Making: (World Scientific Series in Finance Book 10) http://www.amazon.com/dp/B01M8G0QEI

15 Optimizing the Aging, Retirement, and Pensions Dilemma (Wiley Finance Book 477) http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00340ESBK

16 KELLY CAPITAL GROWTH INVESTMENT CRITERION, THE: THEORY AND PRACTICE (World Scientific Handbook in Financial Economics) http://www.amazon.com/dp/9814383139

17 Japanese Financial Market Research (Contributions to Economic Analysis) http://www.amazon.com/dp/0444888519

18 Investing in the Modern Age (World Scientific Series in Finance) by Rachel E S Ziemba (2013-06-10) http://www.amazon.com/dp/B01FKUDIO4

19 Investing in the Modern Age (World Scientific Series in Finance) (Paperback) - Common http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00FDVYJOO

20 Investing in the Modern Age (World Scientific Series in Finance Book 6) http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00FALY7K8

21 Invest Japan: The Structure, Performance and Opportunities of Japan's Stock, Bond and Fund Markets http://www.amazon.com/dp/1557382344

22 Handbook of the Fundamentals of Financial Decision Making:In 2 Parts (World Scientific Handbook in Financial Economics Series 4) http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00U0RYNNI

23 Handbook of the Fundamentals of Financial Decision Making (In 2 Parts) (World Scientific Handbook in Financial Economics) by Leonard C MacLean (2013-07-31) http://www.amazon.com/dp/B01FGK0V9I

24 Handbook of Asset and Liability Management: Theory and Methodology (Andbooks in Finance 2) http://www.amazon.com/dp/B005H84NUS

25 Handbook of Asset and Liability Management, Volume 2 : Applications and Case Studies (Hardcover)--by William T. Ziemba [2007 Edition] http://www.amazon.com/dp/B01GMIEY3C

26 Handbook of Asset and Liability Management - Set, Volume 1 & 2 (Handbooks in France) http://www.amazon.com/dp/044453248X

27 Great Investment Ideas (World Scientific Series in Finance Book 11) http://www.amazon.com/dp/B01LXIOZKB

28 Exotic Betting at the Racetrack (World Scientific Series in Finance) http://www.amazon.com/dp/9813278781

29 Energy Policy Modeling: United States and Canadian Experiences: Volume I Specialized Energy Policy Models http://www.amazon.com/dp/9400987501

30 EFFICIENCY OF RACETRACK BETTING MARKETS (2008 EDITION) (World Scientific Handbook in Financial Economics) http://www.amazon.com/dp/981320351X

31 Economic Analysis of Information and Contracts: Essays in Honor of John E. Butterworth http://www.amazon.com/dp/9401077029

32 Dr. Z's Beat the Racetrack http://www.amazon.com/dp/0688072216

33 Dr. Z's Beat the Racetrack http://www.amazon.com/dp/1635617200

34 Dr Z's NFL Guidebook (World Scientific Series in Finance) http://www.amazon.com/dp/9813276428

35 Collected Works of Professor Marida Bertocchi (World Scientific Handbook in Financial Economics) http://www.amazon.com/dp/9811200815

36 Calendar Anomalies and Arbitrage (World Scientific Series in Finance) (Volume 2) by William T Ziemba (2012-10-11) http://www.amazon.com/dp/B01JXWVE2I

37 Calendar Anomalies and Arbitrage (World Scientific Series in Finance Book 2) http://www.amazon.com/dp/B009GF541A

38 Betting at the Racetrack http://www.amazon.com/dp/0969009712

39 Beat the Racetrack http://www.amazon.com/dp/1635617219

40 Applications of Stochastic Programming (MPS-SIAM Series on Optimization) http://www.amazon.com/dp/0898715555

41 [(Energy Policy Modeling: Specialized Energy Policy Models v. 1: United States and Canadian Experiences * * )] [Author: William T. Ziemba] [Apr-1980] http://www.amazon.com/dp/B0140EG604

Ditto. And thanks for the mark at hour and 4 minutes because I probably would not have given it an hour to run into that. But you're correct.. deepest whale talk I've heard articulated that clearly.

What's funny is that I read his book and created a calculator program based off of it, place and show betting, about 20 years ago. Hard to believe.

I can see some inefficiencies arise in certain pools at certain times, but because of what you say, even then it was brutal unless you were going for a triple crown winner at Belmont, where the Place and Show typically pay more, a lot more (haha).

I love the game, but play mostly horizontals now, and usually mandatory payouts only unless I love a 5-6 race segment of a big racing day.

Great thread.

I did the same thing and still have my TI-95 calculator.

Found another podcast with Ziemba. It's a very similar style of podcast, and he covers some of the same stuff. However, most interesting bit is that he mentions a horse betting syndicate that was wagering $1.2 billion per year and making 15%. That's a cool $180 million/year. From context sounds like they did this in ~2010 with 80 employees. Says they now have ~300 people. He mentions it @ 13:35. Pretty sure he later confirms that this is Zeljko (sp?).

Link:
F'ing crazy...

Hong Kong does not fit the context here.

getting shut out is a non-factor that has nothing to do with direct tote feeds on or off track betting significant late money.

Oh really!? Says who? Perhaps you missed Post #3 where Mr. Benter’s name was brought up. I suppose his personage is outside the context of Hong Kong as well.

BTW who do you suppose is doing all the betting during any phase of a betting cycle? Viewing or importing direct tote feeds are an ABSOLUTE result of those bettors (serious or otherwise) no matter WHEN the money goes into the various pools.

If you can’t understand the relationship between making a substantial wager (a serious bet) within a comfortable and reasonable amount of time prior to post, then the concept of getting “shut out” from perhaps a huge score must completely elude you.
There’s also an outright non-correlation between viewing/analyzing “late money” activities and how it might represent any serious betting. (And that applies to both HK and Stateside betting).
.

You're seriously arguing that people DON'T bet late when 70% of the money enters the pools in the last two minutes (only exceptions being huge events like the Kentucky Derby)? You're arguing something that is easily disproven in every single race in the country every day and is widely documented. So you sound like an idiot, plus you have your usual snotty attitude to boot. Go away.