improved a lot last time out
 

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this is anecdotal stuff - not an in depth study

I have noticed that horses that have improved a lot last time out fairly often seem to be good bets

such as a big jump in speed figures and a finish of 2nd or 3rd

yes, I know - I'm not the first to remark on this - just sayin'

particularly maiden claimers

I've found a fair # that haven't been bet down too terribly - that haven't been made faves usually because the fave has more than one race where he's performed fairly well


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I agree, but for me it's a dangerous angle.

Ideally TODAY is the improvement day and you noticed a lot of subtle improvement last time, or you are somehow predicting improvement.

If a 30/1 shot runs 2nd last time, the first thing I do is check the charts and replays to see if he had a dream trip, or the favorite(s) didn't fire etc... whether it's legitimate or not.

I don't want 9/2 on a last out 30/1 shot. However, your angle can be true where 9/2 is actually a value. It's a complex set of variables.

I'll try to post a neat example later.

here is a 'redboard' winner who improved this Monday to win. I'll try to post a probable improvement or a subtle form darkened improvement for a live/upcoming race when I catch my breath. Crazy day between doctors and scheduling appointments/payments/services agghhhh :)

"biggest drop in racing"
 

MSW -> Mclm is always the beginning of an angle.

Yes

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thanks - good stuff - very helpful


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My general opinion,

"Out of the blue" improvement being popped:

Positive: Off a lay-off (sign of new and exciting form)

More Often Positive: Younger or inexperienced; no "ceiling" known yet so more eligible to sustain the peak and keep going forward.

More Often Negative: Older or more experienced runner; more likely to be hitting a true peak and regressing next out without rest; especially when the culmination of a campaign (been stringing many races together).