Race 4 GP 3/22
 

Inspired by the thread in general racing talk about the major bet down, and subsequent easy win by Irad on Mr B yesterday, I'd like to get others insights into how they handicap the dreaded "about" 7.5 furlong turf races at GP. At first glance this field of 8 seems to be pretty competitive, when I have a minute over my lunch break I'll take a closer look at it and give my two cents. Thanks and GL to all!

post the pp's if you have them plz.

Two horse, chalky race.

My fair odds line:

:1: 8/5
:2: 9/5

Value clearly lies with Conquest Dynasty if that one goes off near M/L.

New trainer looking to get rid of the :1: this quickly? And at a cut-rate deal?

Google down the stretches free pps, sorry too hard to link from mobile.

I think you might be looking at yesterday's 4th race that I'm fairly positive conquest dynasty won at 5/2 ;)

HAH! You're right...:pound:

Good thing I don't have a bet until 2:30 at Oaklawn on the agenda...(or maybe I don't!)

Found the right race...

:5: 7/5
:8: 5/2
:3: 5/1

Don't think the :5: will go off much below M/L...seems vulnerable here chasing the :3:, he doesn't seem to win unless he gets a nice easy lead. Even though my line says 7/5, I don't think I'd bet this one at 5/1 (computers aren't perfect, obviously).

Don't really like the other two all that much either after looking at their PPs.

I might actually go out on a big limb and throw my line away and just bet the :2: at 30-1 on the M/L, only because he seems to have the best closing fig in the race, and that might be all that's needed to beat this kind of race today.

My Take:

The :1: :3: :6: look like they need to be sent hard early to have much of a shot and don't look like they can sustain their speed. The :1: with Irad intrigues me but his record at the distance and at GP make me say pass (from the win spot). :2: is a toss. The :4: looks like it needs a shorter distance, toss from win spot, maybe use underneath. That leaves us with the 2 ML favorites :5: and :8:.

Of these two I like the :8: the best, come off a good race and a decent work. Out of 19 tries at the distance is 7-2-3. However he will likely be co-favorite with the :5: I'll have to find some value in the exotics.

:8:/:4:/:1::5:
:8:/:1::5:/:4:

Well, I'm right so far in that the :5: isn't taking any action...yet...at 0mtp he's 5/2....

The :2: and :3: are too juicy to pass up here...those are my plays

Should have stuck with the line I made for yesterday's 4th....:pound:

I would have selected 8-1 in that order, neither at the odds that were offered.