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Ray2000

02-09-2019 09:35 AM

Happy Hunting Grounds for overlays

Favorites have high strike rates, ~45% but even so, ROIs are around 0.87.
Outside posts are generally bad bets with very low ROIs

But Favorites from outside posts can be a smart place to look for underbet horses. (Overlays)

Here are some unofficial numbers for the best ROI post when the starting horse is the favorite.
Ave odds were 2.50, so no need to kick out outliers. 2 year data except WBSB, 1 yr

Code:

Best post for favorite by ROI (2yr) Track ROI Post PPK 1.88 9 CALX 1.45 9 DTN 1.44 9 HAR 1.41 8 YR 1.26 8 RCR 1.21 6 GRVR 1.19 9 BigM 1.16 9 VD 1.10 7 STGA 1.09 8 FLMD 1.07 7 RIDC 1.05 8 TGDN 1.05 7 WBSB 1.04 6 NFLD 1.03 7 SCD 1.02 6 DD 1.01 5 PHL 1.01 6 BTVA 1.00 6 PCD 1.00 8 FHLD 0.99 1 MEA 0.98 5 MR 0.97 5 MVR 0.97 9 HAW 0.96 2 BR 0.94 4 LEX 0.94 6 LON 0.94 3 GEOD 0.92 5 HOP 0.90 4 PRC 0.90 5

Problem is it's hard to find outside post favorites.

For instance Yonkers post #8 only had 50 starts with the fave over the last 2 years but it did make $$

pandy

02-09-2019 09:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ray2000 (Post 2429198)

Favorites have high strike rates, ~45% but even so, ROIs are around 0.87.
Outside posts are generally bad bets with very low ROIs

But Favorites from outside posts can be a smart place to look for underbet horses. (Overlays)

Here are some unofficial numbers for the best ROI post when the starting horse is the favorite.
Ave odds were 2.50, so no need to kick out outliers. 2 year data except WBSB, 1 yr

Code:

Best post for favorite by ROI (2yr) Track ROI Post PPK 1.88 9 CALX 1.45 9 DTN 1.44 9 HAR 1.41 8 YR 1.26 8 RCR 1.21 6 GRVR 1.19 9 BigM 1.16 9 VD 1.1 7 STGA 1.09 8 FLMD 1.07 7 RIDC 1.05 8 TGDN 1.05 7 WBSB 1.04 6 NFLD 1.03 7 SCD 1.02 6 DD 1.01 5 PHL 1.01 6 BTVA 1.00 6 PCD 1.00 8 FHLD 0.99 1 MEA 0.98 5 MR 0.97 5 MVR 0.97 9 HAW 0.96 2 BR 0.94 4 LEX 0.94 6 LON 0.94 3 GEOD 0.92 5 HOP 0.9 4 PRC 0.9 5

Problem is it's hard to find outside post favorites.

For instance Yonkers post #8 only had 50 starts with the fave over the last 2 years but it did make $$

Wow, that's interesting. I gave up on outside posts several years ago. They used to be my bread and butter.

DeanT

02-26-2019 12:55 PM

Anecdotally "I'm not betting that horse at 2-1 from out there!" we hear often. This makes sense to me. Great stats Ray.

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