Unfortunately, that 'something' would only cause more complaining, mostly by the people demanding something be done.

I didn't.

That is about as insignificant a change as I could imagine.

Of course it's insignificant. I said as much. But what I found interesting is that all the late money came in on the #8. Then they backed the horses out. No odds move for 10 minutes. Race ends, and the winner, not the #8, goes down in price.

What type of money does it take at Kee to go from 4/5 to 1/5 during the race?

About 3/4 through the race Bee Jersey drew off and after race flash was 1/5. This horse looked like the horse to beat but 1/5 with other pace in the race, just feels fishy.

Inept track management doesn't care about this or anything else and this is why the game suffers in today's market

here is a situation I just ran into which is not so infrequent.

race 5 at Epson, the 4/1 exacta paid $31.10, the $1 win bet returned $2.80

at 1 minuet too post the exacta pool was $3,740, the final pool was $11,071

using the 1 min to post exacta pool data I constructed a $1 payout of $4.04 on the winning combination, while the final pool data construct had a $1 payout of only $2.87 (which by the way as you can see, beat the straight pool $1 return.)

here is the 1 min to post construct indicating "your choice" as #4 over all.
the idea is, if your win bet choice is the #4, then you should bet the 4 over all, using the bet sizes indicated.

I enjoy your info, great to see actual data in action

thanks
I spend too much of my time with this, but I do the same with breathing:)

If anybody has information on the drop of the #1 in race #5 at Churchill, today, it would be much appreciated. The winner went from 9-5 to 4-5 shortly after the second favorite (the #8) broke bad and eased. I believe the #8 went from 2-1 to 3-1. Looking for any verification or any pool information for this race.

Would rather see the pools and the flow to make a accurate judgement, but the double paid 20.80 off an 8.60 winner, so 9/5 was likely too high. more like 1-1


My guess, price adjustment. As usual

that horse got the lead and no doubt the people that have access to the bell or went in on the horse. i am not wrong, and it does happen, and it happens more frequently than you think.

you are one of the top handicappers in the world and if i was sitting in your shoes i would never be making a bet into the pari mutuel pools and stick with the contests that you should do very well at without exposure to crooked pools.

Why would payoffs in the pari-mutuel pools not affect his contest prices as well?

Don't have the info you are looking for but do note that based off of the daily double probables going into race 5, The 1 should have been about 1.18 to 1 and the 8 should have been about 4.08 to 1. Based off of that the odds changes make sense.

It was brought up by another poster, but the more I look at double probables the more I realize that they are predictive of many of these late odds changes. Bet the winner of the last race at Churchill yesterday at 9-1 late in the betting, when he won, I was pissed he was at 5-1. Then I looked at the double payoffs going into that race and sure enough he was about 6-1. I was less pissed.

The good thing about using double probables going into the race is that it is a closed pool. So as bettors we definitely need to look at those probables and weigh them heavily in assessing what final odds we are going to get (at tracks with rolling doubles obviously). So if as a bettor you were looking for 7/5 or better on the 1,, which seems reasonable when he is 9/5 late in the betting, it was far less reasonable to assume you would get it when you saw he was only 1.18-1 in the double pools. Also maybe the fact that the horse was 9/5 late created too much public money on the horse leading to an excessive late odds crush.

Another advantage of using double probables to gauge your probably payoffs is it gives you a lot of time to prepare your potential bets. When I am waiting for the tote board to stabilize I am usually waiting to very late in the betting process and I am forced to make a lot of bets quickly and usually get shut out on some of them (and of course typically the winning ones).

If we are looking to prove if past posting is going on we need to find odds drops that do not correlate with the closing odds of the double pools that closed about 30 minutes earlier. In other words in the example mentioned, had the 1 been 2-1 and the 8 been 3-1 in the double pool(race 4 to race 5) that line movement would have been highly suspicious. However that was not the case in this situation.

"If we are looking to prove if past posting is going on we need to find odds drops that do not correlate with the closing odds of the double pools that closed about 30 minutes earlier. In other words in the example mentioned, had the 1 been 2-1 and the 8 been 3-1 in the double pool(race 4 to race 5) that line movement would have been highly suspicious. However that was not the case in this situation."

Good luck finding it. And if you find one there's a good chance its a LOSER
anyway.

Was on the :6: in the 3rd at Churchill. Was 3-1 but the low price on the double. Sure enough he drops to 9-5 during the load.

I followed the betting action from the time they loaded until 4 or 5 strides after the gates opened. Here's what I documented (I took cell phone pictures of the TwinSpires feed):

As first horse was entering the gate:
total win pool amount $142,383
#1 - $21,889 15.4% of pool 4/1 odds
#2 - $44,457 31.2% of pool 8/5
#3 - scratched
#4 - $12,737 8.9% of pool 8/1
#5 - $5,678 4.0% of pool 20/1
#6 - $27,919 19.6% of pool 3/1
#7 - $29,700 20.9% of pool 5/2

After last horse entered the gate:
total win pool $154,951
#1 - $23,537 15.2% 4/1
#2 - $49,591 32.0% 3/2
#3 - scratched
#4 - $13,315 8.6% 8/1
#5 - $5,821 3.8% 20/1
#6 - $30,349 19.6% 3/1
#7 - $32,335 20.9% 5/2

4 to 5 strides after the gate opened (and the final pool):
total win pool $196,490
#1 - $25,792 13.1% 5/1 (up from 4/1) (broke 6th and last)
#2 - $59,284 30.2% 8/5 (up from 3/2) (broke 3rd)
#3 - scratched
#4 - $14,274 7.3% 10/1 (up from 8/1) (broke 4th)
#5 - $6,177 3.1% 25/1 (up from 20/1) (broke 1st)
#6 - $55,113 28.0% 9/5 (down from 3/1) (broke 2nd)
#7 - $35,850 18.2% 7/2 (up from 5/2) (broke 5th)

Percentage of final win pool incremental increase that was bet on each horse:
Last pool increased $41,539 (from $154,951 to $196,490).
#1 - 5.4%
#2 - 23.3%
#3 - scratched
#4 - 2.3%
#5 - 0.9%
#6 - 59.6%
#7 - 8.5%

Change in each horse's percentage of pool from the time they loaded the first horse in the gate up until the time they had completed 4 or 5 strides out of the gate:
#1 - down 14.9% (from 15.4% to 13.1%) (decrease of 2.3 divided by 15.4)
#2 - down 3.2% (from 31.2% to 30.2%)
#3 - n/a
#4 - down 18.0% (from 8.9% to 7.3%)
#5 - down 22.5% (from 4.0% to 3.1%)
#6 - up 42.9% (from 19.6% to 28.0%)
#7 - down 12.9% (from 20.9% to 18.2%)

Interesting read on a successful computer bettor with access to the Hong Kong pools

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...se-racing-code

A whole thread about this:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=144634