Beyer's needed
 

Does anyone have the Beyers for two horses racing on Sunday, July 22, in the 7th race at Saratoga for Golden Award and Big Birthday? Please post if you do.

I have the bris, trackmaster, and timeform figures for the race. Timeform gave Golden Award a big number off its last race. The others didn't and have Big Birthday as the top fig.

Golden Award
78-73-x

Big Birthday
76-60-x

Pandy,
Not sure if you are aware of this,but if you have DRF-Plus and sign in the last 3 Beyers are shown in the entries.

Regards,
KingChas

You also get the Winner's Books - all the tracks, raw times and Beyers for the winners. Good deal.

I wasn't aware of that, thanks! I ended up picking Golden Award with Big Birthday second, but Golden Award lost to Presumptuous last time and although Presumptuous is a consistent sort, he was one of those trial maidens who never won, until last start.

DRF PLUS QUESTION
 

Hey Guys, which DRF PLUS gives you the Beyers in the entries? Basic, Pro??

DRF Plus Pro

As Tom stated you get much more also;http://static.drf.com/plus/plus-plans.html

The DRF PLUS Reports is a good deal, too.

This reminds me of the Beyer figures bogus thread run previously.

I ran into a race Saturday July 21 where what fig you use could lead you to a good or bad bet.

The :1: horse Rockin Ready ran one mile races on Santa Anita, turf course.

5/26/18--1:35.3 won Drf figs 80-20.

4/26/18--1:35.3 finished second 1 full length back 79-20.


Same variant for both races.

Bris bold speed figure for the 5/26 race was 95


Bris bold speed figure for the 4/26 race was 83.

If this horse only had raced 5/26 you might want this horse because of the 95 figure, and might lose because the figure might be bogus, and if you used the 83 race you might not use this horse and it might win because this fig could be bogus.


I make Hambleton figures and made the 5/26 race 84 93 177, and the 4/26 race 82 94 176, agreeing with the DRF figures.

Sometimes when I make my own pacelines I question them, but at least I know how they were made.

I know I would not participate in the game if I had to rely on Beyer or Bris speed figures, and that's why I make my own.


What does Bris and Time Form show for these two races?

Cramer Figs for the two races - then the Beyers

5/26/18--1:35.3 won Drf figs 80-20. 93 83

4/26/18--1:35.3 finished second 1 full length back 79-20. 87 75


The 4/26 race was slow paced compared to the 5/26 race and the horse used very different running styles in the two races and the 4/26 race was his first try around two turns.

111 two back, 107 most recent race, 104 on Saturday. The much the best last race speed figure horse (War Heroine, 118) won at 5-1 though I was too dumb to bet her.

Thanks Tom and cj.

My point wasn't which figure maker was "best," but that each figure maker looks at two nearly identical races and rates them with such variance.


To summarize--


Race 5/26 DRF-Var 80-20 Bris 95 Cramer 93 Beyer 83 Time Form 107 Hambleton TPR 177


Race 4/26 DRF-Var 79-20 Bris 83 Cramer 87 Beyer 75 Time Form 111 Hambleton TPR 176


Bris has a 12 point spread, Cramer a 6 point spread, Beyer an 8 point spread, Time Form a minus 4 point spread and Hambleton a one point spread comparing the 5/26 race to the 4/26 race.


And this is not rare.


We have to carefully weigh whatever information we use when making a wagering decision.

Of course. Some are better than others, and everybody gets some wrong sometimes. I'd ce curious what the others gave the horse for the race in question.

The 4/26 race was the only turf route on the card, so ti would have been 80-20 no matter what the track speed was.

On 5/26, I make the variant to be 22, not 20. If it was 22,then your TPR would be 179, not 177, and that would be 3 lengths better than the other race. That would be Beyer closer.

Drf must not be using the real 3 year best times - I looked them up in my DB.

Don't judge anybody off the turf races on May 26th. Nobody is good enough to get that day right without a little help....I was like CJ. Had the winner as the top figure down the hill, but wasn't smart enough to bet her.

Point taken.

I don't use variants for turf races, since like you stated, some days only one race at that distance is run. I make and exception when there is a good, yielding or a race at Gulfstream with all the rail movements.

When I see a turf race from an off track I add one tick for every point above the two year variant for the TPR. Or subtract one tick from the final time of the race.

Belmont's outer turf variant is 14. So if a 1:37.4 race with a 28 variant, the time I would rate the race would be 1:35.0.

Gulfstream's two year average variant is 20. If I see a race with large variant I know the race was run with the rails out.


The variants I took from the Cynthia par books.


I also make a numerical class rating and a form rating and hope all my figures can be trusted.


Fortunately they work often enough.