Betting line interpretation
 

First, a question.

If I make a line based on probabilities and want a 25% cushion, how do I convert it to a betting line? Say a horse comes out at 4-1. Do I just multiply the 4 by 1.25, to get 5-1?

Now the topic of the thread.
This is a line I made for Sar R8 9/2

I used the 80% odds line ideas from The 4 Quarters book and the top 4 horse came close to 80.

Looking for opinions on how you would bet the race,
Bet the first overlay?
Bet the higher odds overlay?
Bet both?

Combine the two overlays in exactas with the other top horses?

Bet both without hesitation....Irons out variance as a bonus.

Almost every time I think there are multiple overlays in a race (usually that’s when I think the favorite is very over-bet) I bet both horses to win and box the exacta. I may weight the amounts of money differently depending on their win probability and extent of the overlay but I’ll almost always have something on both horses.

Nothing wrong in theory with betting both overlays to win. Flat is my preference when I like a horse and therein lies the difference. When I like something synergistic about A horse, like Firenze Fire, then I bet it to win. What you're looking at in this example race is something different though. There's evidently something you don't like about the favorite, whatever factor you're weighing heavily for this line it has not stacked up any better for this favorite than for several other horses. In that scenario verticals would seem to fit the scenario better than dutching to win. Your call, but those are my thoughts on it.

I would do it like this, a true 25%. Multiply the percentage by 0.75, so for example the 0.217 is 0.16275. Then convert that to odds, 1/0.16275-1 = 5.14.

At bigger prices it makes a difference. For example, .10 becomes 9-1, which multiplied by 1.25 becomes 11.25. Doing it my way, it becomes 12.33 to 1.

I’m not sure what you mean by 25% cushion, but the way I think about it you should multiply the payoff by 1.25.

If you make the horse 20% = 4-1 = $10 in your line, I would multiple $10 x 1.25 = $12.5 as my target price for a bet.

33.333..% = 2-1 = $6 x 1.25 = $7.50