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-   -   off stride rates (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=66784)

SchagFactorToWin 02-16-2010 01:08 PM

off stride rates
 
Does anyone keep stats on the percentage of horses that break? I play Yonkers and had 5.2% of my picks for 2009 either break, DQ, be, or similar and was wondering if that is what should be expected.

LottaKash 02-16-2010 02:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SchagFactorToWin
Does anyone keep stats on the percentage of horses that break? I play Yonkers and had 5.2% of my picks for 2009 either break, DQ, be, or similar and was wondering if that is what should be expected.

Schag, that sounds about right.....

T=breds, have the stating gate issues, and harness has the "XX"-factor...

All part of the game, always has been, always will be....sucks tho...

badcompany 02-16-2010 02:46 PM

I don't have the numbers, but from experience, it depends on the type of race.

Trotters break more than pacers. Young horses break more than older ones.

If you follow the NYSS(New York Sire Stakes), in the 2yr old Filly trot division, it's not uncommon to see half the field break.

am1947 02-16-2010 05:10 PM

A quick check of M1 site from 11/21/2008 thru 8/22/2009 showed 1827 winners.
My data showed 1810 winners I do not have non betting races.
I showed 16,931 total entries

There were 502 scratches. 346 pacers and 156 trotters
So 16,429 horses went to the gate .

I showed 851 individual horses having an x or x's in their chart line.
851/16429= 5.17% entrants who broke trot and pace.


Of the 851 breakers 522 of them were trotters. 329 were pacers

4760 trot entrants minus 156 trotters scratched
4604 trotters went to the gate.
522/4604= 11.3% trotter break frequency.


12,171 pacers entered minus 346 scratches 11,825 pacers to the gate.
329/11,825= 2.78% pacer break frequency



Breaks (x) at each point of race.
PP x's 436
Q1 x's were 308
Q2 x's were230
Q3 x's were 292
T.S. x's were 334
Fin x's were 147

Obviously that total is more then 851 . Due to horses breaking at more then one call in a race.

If you include interference,broken eq, Dq's the number would go higher.
Also this is for M1 a 1 mile track Yonkers is a 1/2 with tighter turns so these numbers may be lower then a half miler with the tight turns.
So I would think you have to break your bets down by trot and pace to see how you are fairing to the numbers.

AM

LottaKash 02-16-2010 05:53 PM

AM...thx for posting those interesting numbers....

Myself personally, I avoid most of those types of races as well....I have found that, once I got it thru my noggin that certain types of races produced more breakers than others, and that, by eliminating, or at least cutting-back on, from playing those types, my bottom line ($$$) improved remarkably....Why tempt fate, when you can have some say and control in this matter...It matters...imo...

SchagFactorToWin 02-17-2010 12:26 PM

Thank you, AM.

Trotters account for 14.5% of my bets but 60% of the X's. I'll have to look closer at that.

Pacingguy 02-18-2010 06:28 AM

Eliminate Two Year Olds?
 
AM, is it possible to look at your statistics after eliminating two year olds? There is a reason why they call them baby races. We shouldn't be racing at two.

I am curious if we eliminated two year old racing if it would significantly reduce the number of breakers.

Ray2000 02-18-2010 08:10 AM

am1947

We are very close on these stats.



My numbers for 2009, Parimutuel races only no Qualifiers,

( includes a few small tracks probably with Demolition Derby ruts :D )



............Break Lines......All lines......Break Percentage
all combined......24691.......436017...........5.7%

all pacers........11281.......327401...........3.4%
all trotters......13410.......108616..........12.3%

all 2yo pacers......660.........9991...........6.6%
all 2yo trotters....877.........4010..........21.9%


Subtracting out 2yos doesn't change the percentages much, too few starters

I didn't break it down on track condition, but sloppy tracks is another factor.


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