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-   -   Reliability of last race indicators (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=146299)

ultracapper 07-26-2018 03:26 PM

Reliability of last race indicators
 
Here's something that I don't think has been discussed before.

I've found, and pretty much live by, what I've perceived that positive indicators in the horses previous race is more reliable that a good race is forthcoming than negative indicators in a horses past race is reliable that a poor race is forthcoming. In other words, it's less likely that a horse you're expecting a good performance from will let you down than it is likely that a horse you're expecting a poor performance will pop up and surprise you. You're going to be surprised by a horse that you're expecting nothing from more often than a horse you're expecting something from will let you down.

Positive indicators are more reliable than negative indicators in the previous race. I dig further into horses that ran so-so to see if there is something lurking deeper in the pps than I have to when a horse is showing in it's last race that it will run well. If it's showing in it's last race that it will run well today, I pretty much just go with it and move on to the next horse.

soupman2 07-26-2018 03:47 PM

Well, that is as mud to me. Could you be more specific? Are you saying that you see "stuff" that you think is good (like what?) and if another horse doesn't have "stuff" and just has "negative stuff" (like what again) the first horse will probably win?


Bob

NorCalGreg 07-26-2018 04:32 PM

Have you noticed east-coast horses just don't show many works---compared to west coast?

I suspect they have more workouts---they just don't show, or report them back east.

I know Del Mar has higher-class horses than ,say..Finger Lakes. If you have the Del Mar pp's...damn near every horse shows 1-3 workouts SINCE his last race.

Unless he's coming off a layoff you won't find many horses that show even 2 workouts since last...at eastern tracks, or Ellis, etc.

jk3521 07-26-2018 04:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg (Post 2347220)
Have you noticed east-coast horses just don't show many works---compared to west coast?

I suspect they have more workouts---they just don't show, or report them back east.

I know Del Mar has higher-class horses than ,say..Finger Lakes. If you have the Del Mar pp's...damn near every horse shows 1-3 workouts SINCE his last race.

Unless he's coming off a layoff you won't find many horses that show even 2 workouts since last...at eastern tracks, or Ellis, etc.

That's one reason why I don't bet West Coast tracks. I check workouts in the pp's when handicapping. On the East Coast it is a factor which I follow. Out in California it's works, works,works ,and all seem to be good works, for even the cheapest stock . Easier to try to figure trainer intention on the East Coast.
.

DeltaLover 07-26-2018 04:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ultracapper (Post 2347161)
Here's something that I don't think has been discussed before.

I've found, and pretty much live by, what I've perceived that positive indicators in the horses previous race is more reliable that a good race is forthcoming than negative indicators in a horses past race is reliable that a poor race is forthcoming. In other words, it's less likely that a horse you're expecting a good performance from will let you down than it is likely that a horse you're expecting a poor performance will pop up and surprise you. You're going to be surprised by a horse that you're expecting nothing from more often than a horse you're expecting something from will let you down.

Positive indicators are more reliable than negative indicators in the previous race. I dig further into horses that ran so-so to see if there is something lurking deeper in the pps than I have to when a horse is showing in it's last race that it will run well. If it's showing in it's last race that it will run well today, I pretty much just go with it and move on to the next horse.

Your statement is valid but what is missing from your approach is an empirical methodology that will allow you to validate it.

A statement like the following:

Quote:

Positive indicators are more reliable than negative indicators in the previous race.
is meaningless if you do not have a methodology to reject it based on a specific universe of data.

(Anyway, your conjecture can be easily falsified.)

lefty359 07-26-2018 07:46 PM

Sartin Says...
 
Doc Sartin used to say that last race is not as predictive as 3rd race back at comparable distance and surface. I use best of last 3 in putting in pace lines for software prgm I'm using. Works well for me.

DeltaLover 07-26-2018 08:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lefty359 (Post 2347301)
Doc Sartin used to say that last race is not as predictive as 3rd race back at comparable distance and surface. I use best of last 3 in putting in pace lines for software prgm I'm using. Works well for me.

Is he quoted as a guru?

RichieP 07-26-2018 08:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeltaLover (Post 2347311)
Is he quoted as a guru?

I believe he went by a statistical survey done by "Sport Stat" at the time showing the last race was no more predictive for the WINNER than the 2nd or 3rd race back.

thaskalos 07-27-2018 01:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RichieP (Post 2347317)
I believe he went by a statistical survey done by "Sport Stat" at the time showing the last race was no more predictive for the WINNER than the 2nd or 3rd race back.

I don't see how that could be. Wasn't it part of the Sartin Methodology to never ignore the horse's last "representative running line", unless there was a compelling handicapping reason to do so?

jay68802 07-27-2018 02:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg (Post 2347220)
Have you noticed east-coast horses just don't show many works---compared to west coast?

I suspect they have more workouts---they just don't show, or report them back east.

I know Del Mar has higher-class horses than ,say..Finger Lakes. If you have the Del Mar pp's...damn near every horse shows 1-3 workouts SINCE his last race.

Unless he's coming off a layoff you won't find many horses that show even 2 workouts since last...at eastern tracks, or Ellis, etc.

Rules are different. In CA, every work has timed and reported, and has to be on the track or at a approved training center. In NY and other places, the trainer has to show 1 timed workout in the last 30 or 60 days, depending on the rules of that state. They can work the horse at a private facility and not report it.

Look at a lot of horses trained by Servise. The shippers usually show only 1 work out on the track. On Monday he had a horse in the 6th race that showed 1 work since May. So he is working the horse at a private facility away from prying eyes.

NorCalGreg 07-27-2018 03:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jay68802 (Post 2347445)
Rules are different. In CA, every work has timed and reported, and has to be on the track or at a approved training center. In NY and other places, the trainer has to show 1 timed workout in the last 30 or 60 days, depending on the rules of that state. They can work the horse at a private facility and not report it.

Look at a lot of horses trained by Servise. The shippers usually show only 1 work out on the track. On Monday he had a horse in the 6th race that showed 1 work since May. So he is working the horse at a private facility away from prying eyes.



I figured it was something like that---thanks

(Hey Jay...is that Frederick Douglass on your avatar?)

jay68802 07-27-2018 03:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg (Post 2347448)
I figured it was something like that---thanks

(Hey Jay...is that Frederick Douglass on your avatar?)

It is Tim Conway, the character is The Oldest Man In the World.


Tom 07-27-2018 08:26 AM

Quote:

I know Del Mar has higher-class horses than ,say..Finger Lakes. If you have the Del Mar pp's...damn near every horse shows 1-3 workouts SINCE his last race.
At Finger Lakes, we count the paddock and the post parade as two work outs.

headhawg 07-27-2018 08:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tom (Post 2347465)
At Finger Lakes, we count the paddock and the post parade as two work outs.

:lol:

pandy 07-27-2018 09:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jk3521 (Post 2347234)
That's one reason why I don't bet West Coast tracks. I check workouts in the pp's when handicapping. On the East Coast it is a factor which I follow. Out in California it's works, works,works ,and all seem to be good works, for even the cheapest stock . Easier to try to figure trainer intention on the East Coast.
.

That's why the workout reports are so popular in the So. Cal market. Without the reports, it's hard to make anything of the works, because so many trainers work them fast.


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