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-   -   Trip Thieves and Targeting (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=167777)

mountainman 11-20-2021 01:19 PM

Trip Thieves and Targeting
 
So frequently these days I witness an occurrence perhaps more commonplace-and traditional-than I had realized: Trip theft. While the "targeting" of chalk by opposing riders intent on hooking, bumping, impeding , or floating the favorite wide has long been common in racing, a form of "shadowing" seems to take place as those jocks , at whatever place in the pack, try to provoke a "match race" with the favorite. One motivation for that must be simple narcissism-a desire to be where the action is. Another i see as spite-to make the chalk crash and burn.

In some other instances, though, probably they reason that an opponent is favored based, at least partly, on a running style flattered by pace-scenario, a projected running position, or even post and possible path-bias. I think that compels certain riders to steal trips, sometimes regardless of their own mounts ability or running -style. "If this is the way the favorite figures to win, now it's MY way to win," summarizes that thinking.

Andy Asaro 11-20-2021 01:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mountainman (Post 2767570)
So frequently these days I witness an occurrence perhaps more commonplace-and traditional-than I had realized: Trip theft. While the "targeting" of chalk by opposing riders intent on hooking, bumping, impeding , or floating the favorite wide has long been common in racing, a form of "shadowing" seems to take place as those jocks , at whatever place in the pack, try to provoke a "match race" with the favorite. One motivation for that must be simple narcissism-a desire to be where the action is. Another i see as spite-to make the chalk crash and burn.

In some other instances, though, probably they reason that an opponent is favored based, at least partly, on a running style flattered by pace-scenario, a projected running position, or even post and possible path-bias. I think that compels certain riders to steal trips, sometimes regardless of their own mounts ability or running -style. "If this is the way the favorite figures to win, now it's MY way to win," summarizes that thinking.

Rarely happens at major tracks. Wish it happened more often. Especially when Baffert has one in a race

mountainman 11-20-2021 01:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro (Post 2767580)
Rarely happens at major tracks. Wish it happened more often. Especially when Baffert has one in a race

Remind me not to get on your bad side. Dude, you are relentless. lol..

dilanesp 11-20-2021 03:28 PM

Sometimes, it's the only chance to try to win the race. Especially if the favorite figures to get an easy pace- you either go out there and burn him up or you finish 2nd, 6 lengths back.

thaskalos 11-20-2021 04:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dilanesp (Post 2767641)
Sometimes, it's the only chance to try to win the race. Especially if the favorite figures to get an easy pace- you either go out there and burn him up or you finish 2nd, 6 lengths back.

If you lay off the easy-lead favorite, you may fnish 2nd and 6 lengths back. But if you engage the favorite and try to "burn him up"...then binoculars will be needed to find you at the finish line.

wisconsin 11-20-2021 06:44 PM

I do see jocks gun horses out that unexpectedly press the front runners. Tracks that I notice gung-ho tactics the most are Tampa Bay, Mountaineer, and Gulfstream

Andy Asaro 11-20-2021 08:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mountainman (Post 2767591)
Remind me not to get on your bad side. Dude, you are relentless. lol..

If you have the PP's for the 8th at Del Mar from today look at the rail horse and then watch how Espinoza rides him.

FRMNBRI 11-20-2021 08:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro (Post 2767714)
If you have the PP's for the 8th at Del Mar from today look at the rail horse and then watch how Espinoza rides him.

Mountainman I agree 100%. Are you guys not watching GP on a regular basis especially in this god forsaken Fall meet. You see when these jocks take a 50-1 bomb that on paper does not show any front and guns it to front. The smart jocks dont fall for this tatic but I have witnessed plenty of favorites chase him only to drop out of race and kill most of my pick 4, 5 and 6's.

classhandicapper 11-21-2021 01:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaskalos (Post 2767659)
If you lay off the easy-lead favorite, you may fnish 2nd and 6 lengths back. But if you engage the favorite and try to "burn him up"...then binoculars will be needed to find you at the finish line.

That’s the lesson connections have learned in recent years that they didn’t fully understand years ago. That’s also why horseplayers today get frustrated when second and third best speeds take back.

The trick is to know when to go and when to sit off. You have to know your own horse and his abilities relative to horse you are thinking of challenging.

rastajenk 11-21-2021 07:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dilanesp (Post 2767641)
...or you finish 2nd, 6 lengths back.

Saves a condition for the next time ;)

Andy Asaro 11-21-2021 08:03 AM

2 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by mountainman (Post 2767591)
Remind me not to get on your bad side. Dude, you are relentless. lol..

Attached chart and PP's

classhandicapper 11-21-2021 09:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rastajenk (Post 2767763)
Saves a condition for the next time ;)

I won’t go as far as saying anyone is stiffing horses for that reason, but if you have a low level horse that’s barely competitive at its current level and you will lose a condition if he wins, you are sometimes better off financially piling up 2nds, 3rds, and 4ths in the current condition than winning and getting buried at the next one. It’s usually only true for the very lowest level horses, but I’ve had a piece of horses like that and after a win the first thing I asked myself was “now what?”. You can be in a position where your only options are to get buried repeatedly, ship out to a lower tier track, or pray.

Tom 11-21-2021 11:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro (Post 2767714)
If you have the PP's for the 8th at Del Mar from today look at the rail horse and then watch how Espinoza rides him.

I looked at your pdf's.....what am I supposed be seeing?

cj 11-21-2021 11:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tom (Post 2767783)
I looked at your pdf's.....what am I supposed be seeing?

Horse with sprinter speed from the rail ceded the lead in 23.74 to a couple Bob horses. Turns out he outwardly bled so who knows, but sure wasn't very aggressive.

Andy Asaro 11-21-2021 11:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tom (Post 2767783)
I looked at your pdf's.....what am I supposed be seeing?

The 1 should have been on the lead but Espinoza never tried to get it. By the fractions they ran he should have been on the lead. Bafferts get an easy trip again.


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