Baffert - Changing the Face of American Racing?
 

Been stewing about this for a while, and now that his 2nd Triple Crowner crossed the wire in hand, it seems somewhat okay to anoint greatness when there is actual greatness.



Baffert owns American thoroughbred racing right now.



If you think of the great horses in the past few years, they have all been under his tutelage: American Pharoah, Arrogate, Justify.



And then you have Hoppertunity. Abel Tasman. He owned the day.



Get out of the gate. Run hard. Win.



Until it gets beat, it is really getting hard to bet against.

Interesting counterpoint:

If you are batshit crazy, sure?



There are still rumors of Secretariat being on steroids. Could you imagine the rumors nowadays if a horse ran track records in the Triple Crown like it was nobodies business?

I started a thread last year at saratoga, maybe belmont summer about the chad brown affect in NY. Lets face it there are 3 major sources of quality horses right now, NY, Ky midwest and California.

I think in terms of training and the paces of the races go from west to east. if you look at dirt results, per capita of quality stock, it goes from west to east.

Baffert gets by FAR the best stock out west, trains the best, and has the best team behind him. Jimmy Barnes is a top trainer if he was out on his own. He has Martin and Drayden doing all the dirty work and them gives the horses to the preeminant rider of the time in the afternoon.

They then ship east, where they get softer paces and not quite as aggressive races and I just think it easier.

This is pure speculation on my part, but its not just Baffert shipping and winning back east, Miller, Oneil, Callihan, Hollendorfer all have had success.

If I went question by question I could answer almost everyone.

And I might consider it if I didn't feel it was a waste of time which I do.

He needs to wake up at 4AM and go to the stable gate at Belmont Park or Santa Anita and ask to get a hot walkers job. That way he could see first hand what's going on. My guess is he prefers not knowing so he can have an excuse when he doesn't win.
That's my take .

Baffert trains his horse hard.
They run hard and they win.
And he is not the only one out there that does this.

The East Coast should be taking notes.
Whipping and driving beat grabbing and herding every day.

And after half the work day is over, he could observe Baffer after he’s rolled into work. Yet Baffert is the trainer of record.

Since 2016:

Take away American Gal and Callaghan gets his head handed to him when he ships.

Take away Songbird and It Tiz Well and Hollendorfer only fires in the Midwest in minor races.

O'Neill has good success with Triple Crown types, but otherwise doesn't make a dent out East or even second tier midwest tracks (Zia, Delta).

Miller won with Roy H, but otherwise is found wanting back East. Actually, he does better with the reverse situation...i.e., getting horses from back East and winning in California with them.

Baffert is the new Lukas...except he doesn't get called a butcher when lots of horses suddenly drop dead on him...and at least Lukas was up with the birds and out on horseback during training hours...

But Lukas still took more shit than Baffert ever will...weird how that works.

I know Miller won another race last year, I hit him good, was a horse he doesnt have any more, Chalon or something.

Sure, take away their best horses and they dont win as much. ok.

You suggested that it was the training environment, relative paces, and aggressive riding tactics that gave west coast horses an edge. So shouldn't even lesser types that ship east from the west win?

I basically took away two horses that dominated their respective divisions and the whole idea comes undone. Chalon winning a minor stakes (and losing 3 graded stakes in the east) won't rescue your theory.

It basically comes down to the quality of the horse. Nothing about west coast being inherently stronger than the east.

When you look the races he wins, and the money he makes for his owners, getting up at 4am sounds pretty stupid.

I think he knows enough of what is going on.
General Patton didn't drive the tanks.

I am sure the theory is wrong, I will just continue to bet the shippers....and collect.

I will continue to bet the turfers coming west, either through straight ships or through barn changes.....and collect.

thx

and how many minor horses are gonna ship? I mean your only going to do it with good horses in good races.

I would say a 250k stake on Belmont weekend is a major race, if you see that different so be it.

I would also include any ship on dirt from socal to any track east of it.

run the numbers, I bet its a huge profit maker. I dont have the database to go back more than a couple months.