Stupid Pools
 

Is it only MY impression, or are the Mahoning players way, way, behind the curve?? 4/5 on chalks that should be 1/2..7/2 on natural 2-1 shots..18-1 on runners with VERY real chances?? Any skilled handicapper not focusing on this track is missing out. Bigtime. The place is a freakin' ATM machine.

I have never encountered anything like it.

I've seen some good value there.

some observations:

Coupled Entries are usually extremely overbet. Almost to the point of either tossing them or passing the race.

Pick-3's have paid less than I expected. (Sample size probably thrown off by the time I used a :1::1a: to complete good capping in the previous races :D ).

Exactas have been better than I expected.

Post positions are largely ignored.

Finish order/literal form seems to be overrated.

Pace scenario seems underbet to me. And I don't think the pools, in general, are very sharp at detecting a bias..or non-bias, for that matter. Nor do I get the impression that the surface's intrinsic nature is much understood by Mahoning bettors. I also think that early imbalances in the win pool rarely get completely corrected.

The subtle aspects of strategy and running style are just not accounted for, either. Just a much-less than sophisticated bunch of bettors. That's my general observation. There ARE more than occasional signs on the tote that somebody has down some homework-but those somebodies aren't really that sharp or inspired.

My quick take on this:

Horses are being bet down from sometimes generous Morning Lines. (John McGary got to know the place well and was spot on 99% of the time IMO. He's greatly missed here).

Woodbine shippers are over-bet. Some like the surface, many don't.

Indiana Grand shippers are overlooked. No matter what their form shows, many wake up here at double digit odds.

I believe horses that ran at Mountaineer in their previous race has won at most 3 times at MVR in their next race.

The local tip-sheet, The Postman's Picks has benefited from decent weather and a consistent surface. His top pick has won 64 of 167 races (38%). His 2nd choice has won another 36 for a total of 59.8% for the meet so far. (Shameless plug):cool:

RR

Hi, Ron, great to hear from you. And good job with your tip sheet.

With the Woodbine horses, much of it hinges on the barn and psychology of why they are there. Canadian outfits invading this region are sometimes tuff to gauge, since most of them are in cahoots north of the border, and send horses south as some sort of "community pool." And program trainers (hidden ownership) runs amok. Even the Canadian runners that exhibit good form at Mvr should be handled with care, since lots of them are there to be sold or unloaded.

As to the Indy horses, spot on. They are much better than players assume. But the ones I've seen win were exploiting hideous fields-low condition races-at Mvr. That horse in the last race Wed is an example.

As to the morning line, I don't even glance at it. Nor would it remotely affect any good handicapper's notion of value.

How is Dinoto doing as a steward up there?? She's part of my crew at Mnr, and I was overjoyed when she got the job.

Okay MM, I am going to tune in today and even post m bets in the handicapping section to embaress myself.

As you know I took a mountaineer break after a particularly unfortunate race and have concentrated on harness.Looking for a winter tbred track. Been messing with Tampa but you peaked my Mahoning interest. Not going to start actual betting until I see some patterns. That is when I will stop posting selections.

Thanks for the tip ( I Think)

first race today

somebody has to win...


2) offers value, 9/2 last time in that slow-paced key-race that held together.

5) may well have issues, but I respect the trainer enough to include.

7) not in love, but can't leave him out

8) i'll reluctantly give a 2nd try


----
lean-against toss

1a) is he really 7/2 early w/out players 'anchoring' to his ml?

6) good trip in the Nov 1st key race. He's half decent, but i was kinda hoping/expecting that he'd be taking more money. Hopefully the board 'corrects' late, and I get better price on the 2,8

Race 1
Going with the
#1a firster...faily well bred. Bad field and looks great on the track
#7 is beginning to show ratty tendencies but getting closer

just going to box the 2567

wanted the 8, but he does not appeal on track

1a should be enough underlay to skip being fancy about the 6

man... that was a bad race / default winner

4 didn't run horribly in the slow paced race on 11/1, but I still can't see him running 2nd.

Race 2 Im liking 4 best....has not proven to be as bad as the other two logical choices the 1-5.
P3 145/127/17

6th race

:9: Street Factor is no world beater. He ran a solid race last time. I could see him running another solid race, or being exposed a bit. He's 3-1 as I type this, so I hope he takes more money late.

:7: Barney Come Home doesn't have much in the stretch. I'd like him to be a power-forward and keep the 9 wide (please don't be a fullback and clear a path for the 9!).


boxing the 2,3,4,5 exacta and playing a 2345 over 234589 for insanity insurance.

file me under dumb money

hi guys..just noticed your input....bet four races today...tanked on the Cowan's firster in the opener (bred on the bottom to win at first asking), and the 7-horse, Maxine, in the 4th ( liked the price and mistakenly thought she could cool her speed-jets a little and adapt to what had to be a torrid pace).......................did connect hard on Awesome Palace ( $19.60) in the 2nd (excused her latest over wet track she detested, and liked the quick improvement on heels of most recent change of trainers..also saw her potentially in control of sluggish field, and loved her two-back start when competitive in much stronger field)...also nailed I'mluckysgirl ($7.00), whom I rated a near -lock in the 7th......incidentally, it was my impression that aside from a brutal trip, Fadlovich intentionally reserved U and Tequila off the pace today..

At MVR, favorites are winning at an exceptionally high rate AND they are returning FAR more than usual. BUT, it could be that you are uncovering some tremendous overlays and for YOU, Mahoning is awesome. Of course, if we are to be successful, the crowd is going to have to be "behind the curve"; when we are unsuccessful it is US that is behind the curve. Still, I don't think the assertion that MVR bettors are uninformed is true at all. If so, favorites wouldn't be doing so well.

According to my records, IND shippers are 4 for 43, returning about $1.00 for every $1.00 bet. One horse was 20-1 or so. Can't hang my hat on these types.

Woodbine shippers are 2/9...sample size too small still.

You and I were on the same page with these runners. My comment on Awesome Place was "Disliked off track last out. Gets preferred dry surface now. Live Bomb". I'mluckysgirl was my top pick in race 7 despite the ML of 6-1??? My personal line was 2-1, so $7.00 was nice!

RR

Posted in the handicap section and had winners of races 4-7 pegged on top. Pleased for first time this year.

MM and RR...looks like rain tomorrow. Any usual bias on a wet track at MVR?

Mild negative rail is possible, as is anti-closer (which is not to be confused with pro-speed...really potent biases that favor quick and pure frontrunners are EXTREMELY rare at Mvr)

Congrats on some good handicapping, btw.

Lol. Not thrilled that somebody as sharp as you is so dedicated to keeping Mahoning bettors well-informed. It's going to cut into my profits this winter, at least a little-no doubt. I hope management appreciates you, good sir.

Of the Woodbine shippers, Kevin Buttigieg runners are around 7/12 (58%). They haven't been surprises though.

When there is an all day soaking rain, anything goes. A slow steady light rain does favor EP types. Usually middle of the track the place to be.

RR

Thanks Gents for the insight.

Looks like a pretty good cold front went through already. I went through the card last night and definitely found it tougher than yesterday.

Still on the fence about playing today. I'll await track conditions and late changes.

Kudos on these huge fields

Likewise had no strong opinions on today's races. Played light, made very modest profit on an uninspiring card. I rated the surface fair.

I pounded the early DD and should have stopped there.Some good sized form reversals that threw me for a loop.

No Clouston at Mahoning?

Clouston has 3 in today. He's 2 for 9 so far at MVR. Cheap speed was hanging on yesterday. That will happen with a little moisture in the surface. Today track will be bone dry. Should be fair to all.

RR

Today's card easier to decipher IMO. I'll be sending it in today.

If Clouston wins any of the races he is in, I will lose that race.

Was the ATM shut down?

Actually, Parx has been playing very nice the last month or so that I have been watching it. Not outrageous prices, but enough good one on horse who run to their form. If you re tired of state breds and turf sprints, it is the track to play.

I killed them today...8/5...9/2 ..8-1..9-1...and 4-1 on a horse I loved in the last...best day for me in several years...

For future reference, sir, my 9-1 ($21.80) winner, Ideal Place, was a choppy mover who tended to stay left lead last year. Today, though, he moved smoothly and seemed to switch on cue. Also, he came from way back (against the grain) to blow by a loose leader who had controlled the pace. VERY live for next-if correctly spotted.

lol...I start with cash..and hit the atm only if I love an upcoming race...I also carry winning tickets from past cards in my pocket..

I found yesterday's strip fair, but today's quite speed-favoring. Bias, however, is in the eye of the beholder, sir.

I do think it's very difficult right now for horses to close wide from well back...I don't mean sweeping turn moves, but instead stone-cold closers out wide down the lane.

LOL. Reminded me of my neighbor who got me started on this at Penn National. We used to take his Smoky and the Bandit model Firebird to the track. Upon arriving he'd go back and pop the trunk and get a wad of bills from under the carpet at the spare tire. I asked him why he kept all that money in the trunk. He said Carol(his wife) didn't need to know how much he'd made. He was a big blonde-haired bear of a man, whom I sure any old Penn regulars would remember as Whitey or Bodie.

Nice Job MM.....I am still on the fence.
Once again I nailed the DD. The firster in race 1 paid shockingly well for a horse whose workouts were not camouflaged and won by a mile.
The starter allowance in race 4 was an ice cold number IMO. Then I not only lost races 567 I got destroyed. Really dismayed the 1 in race 7 was even on the track ( with my money) as his action was awful from the start and the board showed it.
Im with you on the 8 race and was shocked at the exacta price ( very good)

So I am showing a profit but when I go back to review the races I lost, I simply cannot make case for the winners and that is bothering me.

They can't time a race worth a damn and it is very tough to make speed figures. But your average Joe doesn't realize this and bets as usual.

Gee, that's odd.
Even when they were not timing the splits, BRIS was able get pace figs out for every race! :rolleyes:

:bang:

lol..I'm well aware of that, Craig...but times and figs are a dispensable part of my game...in fact, I prefer the chaos of inaccurate clockings, because speed figs much influence the pools......btw, merry xmas , pal!!

The times are accurate as far as I can tell. The problem is plenty of sand has been dumped on the surface the past week. The surface is the deepest I've ever seen it. Beyond being "Winterized". 6 furlongs in 1:18 for maidens and low level types. 1:16 for the typical open claimers. We had the 1st measurable snowfall last night so today should be interesting. Most winners came from the outside posts and outside part of the track on Monday.

In Race 8, #1 Tilt the Balance went wire to wire from the inside to break that trend. Put the 2nd place finisher, Afleet Tee on any horses to watch list. She was 50-1, broke slowly from #2 post, swung wide, checked and ducked inside late, flew past the winner after the wire. I had the exacta to rescue my worst day of handicapping MVR this year.

RR

You could be correct, but I'm skeptical when I see so many races with missing fractions (27 this year at least, about 4%) and a lot of the time gaps between races on the same day make no sense. My experience has been when there are this many timer malfunctions, the obvious ones are caught but many more slip through the cracks.

Totally off opic, but couldn't help myself.

1st day I ever went to the track, Memorial Day 1982, a horse named Tilt the Balance won the Memorial Day Handicap at Longacres. He was my very first winning bet, OF MY ENTIRE LIFE.

There WAS no rescue for me yesterday.