Will Magnum Moon be able to rate?
 

Looking at the Timeform pace figures its clear he is going to have to go faster than he ever has or come from much further back.

He may be able to do it but the current 2nd or 3rd choice will have to do something he never has done before, come from 5-10 lengths back. His figures are good not great, he needs another move forward which is certainly possible, just not sure its probable.

Generally that gets me into the betting against category. I gave him an 8% chance of winning the race.

Where the hell was he in 2017? He was a SepYearling purchase in 2016.
3 works june . '17 5 month gap back to work 11/17
Going back to 2013
3 Todd Pletcher Derby horses that didn't start as 2yo in about 20 entrants. Only Patch started later. Verrazano and Materiality were regarded fairly highly.

audible -9/27
vino -11/11
Nblindy -12/3
destin -10/11
outwork -4/13
alw dreaming 7/1
tapwrit 9/3
patch 1/15
carpe diem 9/1
materiality 1/11
stanford 6/29
itsaknockout 12/7
danza 7/12
intense holday 7/27
vinceramos 11/30
charming kitten 7/28
overanalyze 8/9
palice malce 7/05
revltionry 9/3
verazano 1/1

Does it mean anything?? Maybe, maybe not.

I'm with you. The Derby pace is likely to be two seconds faster at the 3/4 pole than the Ark meaning he's gotta flash more speed or come from further back. He's not likely to flash 11.99 final panel speed if he's putting forth some of that energy early. I'll add, Saez is capable but he's TAPs third stringer here.

I could say the same thing about Mendelssohn. If he can't rate he certainly isn't going to be able to get away with 25 second quarter and 48 half.

if my post above looks like gibberish (it is!, no) the dates listed are the calendar dates of the horse's debut. So "Always Dreaming 7/1" = Started July 1st of 2yo year. Everyone is 2yo except for the three 'bolded' January 3yo starters. Magnum Moon debuted 1/13 of his 3yo season

Theoretically, there is a lot of 'speed' in here with Magnum, Noble, Mendelssohn, Justify, Quip, Flameaway, and Promises. Horses with solid chances and betting interests.

Problem is, none of the 9F preps ran a sub 1:11 first 6 furlongs.

Since the complete meltdown in the 2013 Derby in the very 1st year of the points system, we've had much calmer waters on the front end.

Where is Sinister Minister or Bellamy Road when we need them?

Look to the morning-line favorite. :)
They probably know anything below 1:10 will get fried at the top of the lane.

Ever since the points system, there has been a controlling pace but not blazing. I think the Palace Malice experiment was an aberration.

And this is what bothers me most about a number of entries.

Many a horse, trainer, owner, jockey have obviously decided that they were no longer interested in winning the race and to get as high a board finish as possible.

A number of these are in theory are no chance type horses, but when they don't even give an effort to at least try and take a lead early in the race and see if their horse can't at least get bold and hang on just baffles me.

This year, I'll probably end up mad again when Promises Fulfilled, or Quip, or Flameaway, or Bravazo, or Noble Indy, or Free Drop Billy, or Firenze Fire, or really anybody that doesn't try and take it to Justify and Magnum Moon on the front end. Becasue those horses aren't passing those guys late, much less a number of others, while playing the same game of a solid amount of stalkers and closers that are better than them anyway.

I swear I will go postal if they let Justify get away with 47+ up front with a 2-length lead. But I'm sure that there is someone with an E-type that will not try to steal, but have their moment of glory by "leading" the Kentucky Derby field. I think Audible/Velazquez has a good feel for the pace and will be placed accordingly. Hmmmm.... If it a tepid pace, it's gonna look like a Saratoga steeplechase without the hurdles and grass.

In a 20 horse chaos race where so much can go wrong, I've never had an "expectation" that the "best horse will win the KY Derby."

Now, if they win all 3 legs of the TC, I might entertain the thought they are perhaps, or at least close to being, the best of their peers.

However, post KY Derby, when we see so many milers who were low odds, and even horses who are really champion sprinters like Whitmore, who don't belong in the race, but take a lot of money..... I rarely begrudge any horse for winning the Derby. That's all that is required to do on that day. Right?

I guess I don't use the KY Derby as any kind of real yardstick for anything. It's too weird of a race.

I never begrudged Mine That Bird his win on the day. His weaving in and out of all those horses and running past them one-by-one, was exhilarating. A horse has to be right on that day, and also have the ability and stamina and race set up to get it done.

Couldn't agree more and couldn't have said it any better. We have the biggest race in this country at max capacity of entrants and we can't get an honestly run race. I think it's less the points system than just lack of balls, sportsmanship, testosterone, or just plain old bad intentions! The big connections and pricey bloodstock get compliance and pampered treatment and way too much respect. Play for blood damnit!

Javier Castellano is on Audible

Magnum Moon doesn't need the lead. In the Arkansas Derby, he inherited the lead as no one else seemed too keen to press any kind of pace. I think Pletcher has found his formula and worked out some type of internal clock to work with the riders and have the horses run at their own pace.

This seems to be the case for most and perhaps the entire gate. Every damn horse hit the 3/4 pole in 1:11+ last out. If they run like that in the Derby then it's gonna be like Talladega and the greatest two minutes in sports will be condensed into the greatest 30 seconds.

He may not need the lead, the question is will he feel comfortable going the same pace and be in about 8th or can he go faster early and still finish? Either way its a big unknown for a horse who may be second choice.