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-   -   Yuvetsi 8th Santa Anita (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=143043)

outofthebox 01-28-2018 07:24 PM

Yuvetsi 8th Santa Anita
 
Yuvetsi heading to gate at SA at 13-1. Entering gate she is 10-1. She hits the wire in front at 5-1. That is some serious late action to move a horse without any late scratches. Holy crap...

thaskalos 01-28-2018 07:51 PM

Can you imagine what the closing odds on Yuvetsi would have been if the race was a ROUTE instead of a sprint?

VigorsTheGrey 01-28-2018 08:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by outofthebox (Post 2268383)
Yuvetsi heading to gate at SA at 13-1. Entering gate she is 10-1. She hits the wire in front at 5-1. That is some serious late action to move a horse without any late scratches. Holy crap...

Glad you picked up on that...thought I was going crazy...I saw the horse load at 13-1...didn't know what to think when it paid 5-1...:eek:

Frost king 01-28-2018 08:41 PM

Horse was 3rd choice in the Doubles, and the Pick 3 going into the race.

ultracapper 01-28-2018 09:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Frost king (Post 2268428)
Horse was 3rd choice in the Doubles, and the Pick 3 going into the race.

The "bots" detect the pool discrepancy and suck the value right out of it.

VigorsTheGrey 01-28-2018 09:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ultracapper (Post 2268435)
The "bots" detect the pool discrepancy and suck the value right out of it.

Really...this IS true isn't it...? Has racing really come to this...?

Automated betting programs that use arbitrage programs to find and "recover" the net value in a race no matter who wins...No wonder wagering is going down the tubes for the little guys...SUCKS BIG TIME. BAN THEM.

ultracapper 01-28-2018 09:41 PM

There are only 3 possible scenarios here.

1) The crowd makes the subject horse 3rd in the DDs and P3s, notices the discrepancy at post time, and corrects it. Likely hood........ damn near 0%

2) A bettor in the know or a handicapper that has "found a jewel" makes the subject horse 3rd in the DDs and P3s, and then capitalizes additionally on the overlay in the win pool with a $10K to $15K win bet, the amount necessary at SA to move a horse from 13-1 to 5-1 on a high handle Sunday afternoon.
Likely hood.............maybe, maybe, not impossible.

3) Combo of crowd and committed bettors throw this horse into their DDs and P3 combos as a "most likely alternative" to the main contenders, horse gets neglected in the win pool, bot picks up on it. Likely hood............better bet than the other two.

VigorsTheGrey 01-28-2018 10:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ultracapper (Post 2268455)
There are only 3 possible scenarios here.

1) The crowd makes the subject horse 3rd in the DDs and P3s, notices the discrepancy at post time, and corrects it. Likely hood........ damn near 0%

2) A bettor in the know or a handicapper that has "found a jewel" makes the subject horse 3rd in the DDs and P3s, and then capitalizes additionally on the overlay in the win pool with a $10K to $15K win bet, the amount necessary at SA to move a horse from 13-1 to 5-1 on a high handle Sunday afternoon.
Likely hood.............maybe, maybe, not impossible.

3) Combo of crowd and committed bettors throw this horse into their DDs and P3 combos as a "most likely alternative" to the main contenders, horse gets neglected in the win pool, bot picks up on it. Likely hood............better bet than the other two.

Either the bots are in use or they are not, generally...would like someone who knows for sure to step up and say so...if that is the case, and the bots are in play then we must assume that they are in play for a large percentage of racing, draining value out of the parimutuel pools...though I don't know if this is legal, it certainly is not fair to the rank and file bettors (But hey, who cares about fairness, right...? (stinking liberals)...)

Does anyone really know for sure, and how pervasive robo-wagers are....?

ultracapper 01-28-2018 10:09 PM

The fact there were 2 bets made, first, from 13/1 to 10/1, and then seeing after that bet that the adjustment isn't maximized, from 10/1 to 5/1, indicates that there is just some mathematics driven program directing that adjustment. IMHO.

Neither bet, at that time in the betting process, are insignificant moves. It took $1000s each time to make those moves.

iamt 01-28-2018 10:12 PM

Why is the assumption that the bot is only coming in late.

It is more likely that the bot was responsible for the runner being short in the double and pick 3s to start with. The public has then continued to neglect the horse in the win pools up until post time where the bot comes in and bets the runner down closer to their line.

VigorsTheGrey 01-28-2018 10:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ultracapper (Post 2268463)
The fact there were 2 bets made, first, from 13/1 to 10/1, and then seeing after that bet that the adjustment isn't maximized, from 10/1 to 5/1, indicates that there is just some mathematics driven program directing that adjustment. IMHO.

Neither bet, at that time in the betting process, are insignificant moves. It took $1000s each time to make those moves.

So robo-wagering programs are a reality and are in use, right...?

cj 01-28-2018 10:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey (Post 2268462)
Either the bots are in use or they are not, generally...would like someone who knows for sure to step up and say so...if that is the case, and the bots are in play then we must assume that they are in play for a large percentage of racing, draining value out of the parimutuel pools...though I don't know if this is legal, it certainly is not fair to the rank and file bettors (But hey, who cares about fairness, right...? (stinking liberals)...)

Does anyone really know for sure, and how pervasive robo-wagers are....?

Of course they are in play, this has been going on for a while, CRW = Computer Robotic Wagering.

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/wgoh/...ank-angst.aspx

VigorsTheGrey 01-28-2018 10:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj (Post 2268470)
Of course they are in play, this has been going on for a while, CRW = Computer Robotic Wagering.

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/wgoh/...ank-angst.aspx

My main concern is, if indeed CRW utilizes arbitrage methods that clearly make profits by shifting amounts in such a fashion that makes it automatically profitable given the current set-up with rebates and all...?

I've read that, for entities wagers many millions of dollars per year, the rebates could be as high as 8% or more...

chenoa 01-28-2018 10:31 PM

What about chunks of cancelled win money on another horse affecting the odds, have seen that before!!

ultracapper 01-28-2018 10:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iamt (Post 2268465)
Why is the assumption that the bot is only coming in late.

It is more likely that the bot was responsible for the runner being short in the double and pick 3s to start with. The public has then continued to neglect the horse in the win pools up until post time where the bot comes in and bets the runner down closer to their line.

Why would the bot make the horse short in the exotics? That would imply handicapping. Sure, the bot could scan the will pays for race 8 while betting is going on for race 6, but how would it know there is an overlay in the P3 pool, how would it know where the subject horse should stand in the hierarchy of odds, unless it has given some type of handicapped value to the subject horse in advance? By scanning values during the betting of race 8, the bot just sees the pools are out of whack, and fixes them. No handicapping involved.

Your scenario would fit my example 2 more than bot involvement.


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