Baseball: 2018
 

Three weeks-and one day-from the start of the Major League Baseball season.
Time for our New York posters to make unrealistic and delusional predictions about how well the Mets will do. ;)

Seriously, here is one set of predictions on the win-loss possibilities of all the teams. A good place to start the discussion.

Following the team names, the first number is the actual number of wins during the 2017 season. The second number is the projected number of wins for 2018.
Let the discussion begin.
https://www.oddsshark.com/mlb/mlb-season-win-totals

Team
2017 Wins
2018 Win Total
Arizona Diamondbacks
93
85.5

Atlanta Braves
72
74.5

Baltimore Orioles
75
73.0

Boston Red Sox
93
91.5

Chicago Cubs
92
94.5

Chicago White Sox
67
68.0

Cincinnati Reds
68
73.5

Cleveland Indians
102
94.5

Colorado Rockies
87
82

Detroit Tigers
64
68.5

Houston Astros
101
96.5

Kansas City Royals
80
71.5

Los Angeles Angels
80
84.5

Los Angeles Dodgers
104
96.5

Miami Marlins
77
64.5

Milwaukee Brewers
86
84.5

Minnesota Twins
85
82.5

New York Mets
70
81

New York Yankees
91
94.5

Oakland A’s
75
74.5

Philadelphia Phillies
66
75.5

Pittsburgh Pirates
75
73

San Diego Padres
71
69.5
-115
-105
San Francisco Giants
64
81.5

Seattle Mariners
78
81.5


St. Louis Cardinals
83
85.5

Tampa Bay Rays
80
77.5

Texas Rangers
78
77.5

Toronto Blue Jays
76
81.0

Washington Nationals
97
92.5

I think 64 wins is a generous amount of wins for Miami.That team is going to be in full tanque mode for the next couple of years.I doubt they reach 60 wins.It's going to be a long season in Little Havana this year. As a general manager, Derek Jeter is a great shortstop.The good news for me is I live only a couple of hours from Miami and I should be able to score some major league tickets for minor league prices on the secondary market.:)

The sportsbooks don't give away money very often. Losing 98 games is still a really, really bad team. If you remember back a year ago, everyone viewed the Padres similarly to how the Marlins are viewed now: 100 losses seemed like a certainty. Until it wasn't.

The young teams keep trying in September. Young players have a lot to prove.

Not saying I'm betting the over (I will be in LV making my season win totals in 10 days), but don't assume the under is a lock.

Yankees will not win over 94 games this year. Clearly over rated again.

IMO...the best bet on the board is the White Sox UNDER 68.

Frankly I think the Yankees would have been better off keeping Starlin Castro. They've got 2 starting right fielders, two center fielders (I don't know what they are going to do with Ellsbury, but as long as he plays you can count on him going on the DL two or three times in a season), two left fielders (Gardner and Clint Frazier) and potentially rookies at second and third. Nobody in their division will do better than 94 wins.

We've got a 4 oclock game on a Thursday here in the Natti. Actually liking it better than 1 on a Monday! Always look forward to baseball season!

Will the Yankee's batting lineup be a reincarnation of the '27 Yankees? Judge and Stanton taking batting practice is reminiscent of Canseco and McGwire. Of course these guys are clean, right? Judge is listed at 6-7 & 282 lbs. and he plays a skill/finesse sport. Stanton is ONLY 6-6. I remember Frank Howard was also 6-7 and only 255 lbs. These new players are huge.(edit) I'm reading that Hondo's wt. was as high as 280 during his playing career too.

I'm a Tiger fan and think they will be under this year. They couldn't win 70 last year with JV, JD, Upton for over half the season. They are still looking to trade Fulmer who is a health risk. Castallenos who could be their best hitter this season. Granted they are in a terrible division the White Sox who just started a rebuild and the Royals who are losing their best players to free agency.

Astros if healthy are very very good. I may be biased because I live here, but the numbers don't lie. Youth and shear excitement is another factor often overlooked when judging good teams. The Astros seem to have it all in place.

Money continues to come in on the over, now up to 69 1/2 (over at -120).

Their minor leagues are loaded; just a matter of when the prospects get up to the MLB level.

The Tigers will lose more than the Sox. Same division. Terrible division.

AL division winners
Hou
Cle
NYY

Wild cards
Bos
LAA

NL division winners
LAD
Chi
Was

Wild cards
StL
SF

World Series: Cubs beat Astros in six

Time to post my opinion. Most of you know that I am from the Chicago area and I am a Cubs fan-for almost seventy years. So, it will come as no surprise that I think the Cubs are the best team in Major League baseball, and by a wide margin.

Begin with the starting pitching. Top to bottom, no team is as deep as the Cubs.
Lester, Quintana, and Darvish have all been aces either on the Cubs or on their previous teams. Everybody says that Hendricks is an ace of the future and many say the future is now. If you only consider Chatwood's starts away from Coors Field you should be quite impressed. And you should only consider those starts because he will be making at most one start at Coors this season.

What else do they have? The best young catcher in Willson Contreras, both defensively and offensively. A gold glove first baseman who averages thirty home runs a year in Anthony Rizzo The best defensive second baseman in the game and maybe the best defensive infielder of all in Javy Baez. Expect Addison Russell to contend for comeback of the year at short. Then there is Kris Bryant at third. Rookie of the Year; Most Valuable Player and only 25 years old.

In the outfield, a slimmed down Kyle Schwarber has already stolen three bases; Albert Almora is making the impossible catch routine and Ian Happ is tearing the cover off the ball and also making circus catches in Center Field.
Plus he can fill in at second, third and first base.

There are other good teams such as Houston and the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Washington Nationals will certainly be heard from as well as the Cleveland Indians and Arizona Diamondbacks. But when all is said and done, it is the Cubs who will be hoisting that World Series trophy.

I seriously doubt that it will. The '27 Yankees hit 36% of the American League home runs that year. Even the most powerful teams barely approach 19% now.

Can Aaron Judge duplicate last year. He dropped off precipitously in both batting average and OPS after the all star game. Giancarlo Stanton had a career year-22 more home runs than in any previous season.

I think the Cubs will hit more home runs than the Yankees and probably the Dodgers and Astros also.

A truly wise man. Although I would probably put the Diamondbacks as one of the NL wild cards. But that is nit picking.

I agree. I don't think they will reach .500 this year but I am thinking mid 70s for wins.

I'd be more interested in your take on win totals since what I see above is all chalk. And there's nothing wrong with that unless you are associating a price with it that you'd bet.

The White Sox over is my best best of all, and I've got a lot of money on it (my number is 68.5).

Agreed, I'm on the Tigers under.

The Central isn't terrible, Minnesota and the White Sox are vastly improved/improving. In 2019 the White Sox can be a very real contender. Royals are certainly moving down, and the Tigers are brutal though, yes. Which is why the similar number for White Sox and Tigers is so, so silly.

It feels like the dominance of the 2016 season seems to be forgotten by many. The World Series hangover was not completely unexpected; they played sub par most of the first half yet still ended up with over 90 wins and a 3rd straight NLCS.

I agree 100% on Chatwood. I cashed a number of bets on him when he pitched on the road. Pitchers who rely on movement (like Chatwood) are going to really struggle at Coors.

I won't go quite as far to say the best team by a wide margin, but one of about 6 teams that are at the top and could win the WS. I actually see a bit of regression in the Dodgers.

I also think people are overlooking the Indians a bit. Yes, Houston and the Yankees are very good teams, but I would not be shocked to see the Indians return to the WS.

The White Sox would be one of the toughest teams to gauge. The over under will depend on when management decides to bring up the touted prospects. This is one I wouldnt touch with a ten foot pole.

I was in Vegas this past weekend and I have four MLB season win totals:

San Francisco Under 84
Minnesota Under 85
Cleveland Over 94 1/2
Texas Under 76 1/2

I almost pulled the trigger on the Dodgers Under 96 1/2 and with the subsequent Justin Turner injury, I wish I had.

San Fran under 84 really looking good after Baumgarner injury.

I took Oakland over 75.5. I created a system against the spread last year and they kept coming up as plays even though their record wasn't great. They should have had more runs created and less given up given their stats, so hoping that means a positive 2018.

Ty Blach will be the Opening day starter. Apparently Cueto isn't ready, and Samardijza has a pec issue.

I like that play. I like to check WRC+ with runners in scoring position relative to overall WRC+. According to that, Oakland had the worst sequencing in MLB. They should've scored quite a few more runs than they did. My Texas under play is sort of a second derivative of Oakland under and not expecting much regression from Houston and LAA to be improved.

In full disclosure along with the above, I'm on Mets under (+odds), Tigers under, Pirates under.

San Francisco has almost no chance. I didn't like them with MadBum and Samardijza healthy, and now both are out. They traded for aging power. It's an organization in denial about a rebuild.

Both the Mets and the Yankees will be over their projected wins.

The Braves could win a game or two over, with the Phillies now an under. Their manager has already proven to be the dumbest guy ever to manage a team -- and there's 160 games left! :lol::lol:

The Cubs will be a few games under their projection only because the Cardinals are geared for a very good year, and they should be an over bet.

The Indians' number seems too high so I'll peg them as an under. Remember their pitching coach is no longer there as he's managing the under-rated NY Mets. That truly is a big loss for the Indians, imo.

You realize that since you posted those predictions after the season started, even if you are right on every one, it doesn’t count.:lol:

1. The Yankees could be over. The Mets will definitely be under. They have nothing except a few pitchers who will probably be injured. The Cubs pitching staff is far superior. You shall see.

2. I once managed a women’s softball team in a rec league. So your statement above obviously can not be true.

3. I don’t see how the Cardinals are geared for a very good year. Their pitching is suspect with the injuries to Reyes and Wainwright. Again. They have a lot of low average hitters. The Cubs will win that division going away with the Brewers second. The Cardinals will probably be third but could just as easily be fourth. They are probably an under. The Cubs are absolutely an over.

4. You are probably correct about that Indians number.

Kapler looks in over his head. Removing a stud like Nola after only 68 pitches because the lineup was turning over the 3rd time? Maybe with a 4th or 5th starter but one-size fits all thinking is very short sighted. Then bringing a reliever in who hadn't even warmed up?

I'm curious to see the look on Arrieta's face when Kapler wants to remove him after 84 pitches because the lineup will be turning over for the 3rd time.

Watching the Marlins on opening day, new co-owner and CEO Derek Jeter was being interviewed by the broadcast team during the game.They asked Jeter that since he was quoted as saying he wanted the stadium's retractable roof open more than a few times a year,what standards would he use to determine whether to open it.Derek replied "Well, I'll ask maitainence to push the button that opens the roof, ha ha ha", then quickly changed the subject, as if he had been had asked about the Manhattan Project. I wish Jeter well, he seems like a genuinely humble guy and he appears sincere in putting a winning team on the field but if the Stanton trade is any indication of his ability to deal, it might take a while.Always willing to be proved wrong.

As for the last sentence in my original post, I got a ticket for April 29th that cost 15 dollars including fees, about the 10th row from the first row of box seats and if I walked in a straight line onto the field to the foul line,I'd be about 20-25 feet behind where the infield dirt meets the outfield grass.Same ticket runs for 33 dollars on the Marlins website and that's before all the fees.

But they're playing the Rockies, so maybe it still wIll be minor league baseball. :D
.

Bucco's 4-0 Pennant Fever:ThmbUp::headbanger:

shame --not a sell-out:pout:

Too bad they can't play the hapless Tigers 158 more times.:)

The weather seemed quite chilly and raw. But it is a shame MLB has priced the game beyond many people's budget. The days of the spur of the moment decision to go to a game seems long gone now.

Like taking candy from a baby...:cool:

My ex SIL, just returned from a trip to see the Orioles play the Red Sox in Boston. He said parking was $50, Five zero.

i am 2 miles away from the park and i only charge $20 and that is for the whole night!