Horses to watch: Script.
 

His first race was typical Graham Motion,give them an easy over........couldn't of been more impressive the final 3/16ths.....came home like a wild horse.
Second race,he goes to the front.....never in doubt.......thinking he doesn't even care for the lead.
Feels like a 3yo to watch next year:



https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...aqu-on-12-4-21

Based on his 61 winning Beyer and 57 debut fig, he will be easy to watch, as he is SLOW. Why anyone would consider him as one to watch going forward eludes me.

Mentioned in the thread opener that I factored in the barn and how they approach first starts.
Followed up pointing out that Script had a 180 change in tactics when outclassing straight maidens on the front end in his follow up @ AQU on the one furlong increase.
The fact that Script was put on the lead and was never in doubt might be a bit of a tell as to what the barn thinks of the horse.........a barn that has a history of improving their best stock with racing.
I understand that speed figures are a handicapping tool,and many people use them to form an opinion........I have zero problem with that.......I'm sure they work very well.
That being said.......Script appears to me to be the goods.
Time will tell.
Sidebar:
I do find it interesting that Arthur Hancock (Stone Farm) has bred the unraced mare Dilly four times now........he must value her somewhat as a broodmare..........perhaps Script will prove him right on Dilly.

Dilly has already been fairly productive with 4 winners from 4 foals to race (2 of which have earned black type). The mare also descends from a very deep family that has produced horses like Glorious Song, Soaring Softly, Rahy, Saint Ballado, Devil's Bag, Tricky Creek, etc.

Perhaps more interesting is that he hasn't bred her to an important stallion yet.

Wouldn't the respective paces in his first two be more of an indicator on why he was far back in his debut (fast early pace) and on the lead in his second (24,48)?

nothing great about that horse. he will probably win a maiden allowance in Maryland. though.

:lol::lol::lol:

The 2 year old I'd want out of this weekend was Marketsegmentation.

I know she sat a good trip, but she exploded when Irad got her in the clear and won like a real good thing.

So many people know about every maiden that wins with a very fast figure their owners often get calls from prospective buyers. It's important information, but imo it's practically useless to value oriented bettors unless you have a reason to not like one of them (bias aided etc..) or know a situation where they tend to disappoint going forward.

I have no view on the horse you mentioned, but like you I way prefer to follow horses I have reason to think are capable of running faster than they shown so far.

So, slow horses have much more room to improve than fast ones. Great info. Maybe CJ can tell us how many slow maiden breakers on dirt win Graded Stakes on dirt for every ten fast ones that do the same. My guess is it's less than one.

Maybe if you actually thought about some of the crap you post instead of equivocating on everything and tailoring your opinions to the posters in a thread, you would at least occasionally post something of value. Maybe.

That is a good one, her figure wasn't anything super, but on turf I think that is much less important with younger horses.

There's Hope For Jay....
 

First sober post you've given, since coming back and spreading your seasonal Christmas cheer.

I'd try to have legitimate conversation with you on why figures are sometimes misleading about ability, but you are so wedded to an incorrect view of race results it wouldn't be a productive use of my time. You do not understand enough about the relationships between surface, race development, energy in reserve and final time to have the conversation and are too arrogant to listen and expand your thinking. I know all the things I have no expertise in and listen. You don't and don't. You didn't even understand the post you attacked.

What number did you give her?