Morgan Stanley is Signaling "June Gloom."
 

A Morgan Stanley reading on the economy collapses by the most ever

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mark...cid=spartanntp

Morgan Stanley's Business Conditions Index, which captures turning points in the economy, fell by 32 points in June, to a level of 13 from a level of 45 in May. This drop is the largest one-month decline on record and the lowest level since December 2008 during the financial crisis, according to the firm.

"The decline shows a sharp deterioration in sentiment this month that was broad-based across sectors,' economist Ellen Zentner said in a note to clients. "Fundamental indicators point to a broad softening of activity, but analysts did not widely attribute the weakening to trade policy."

Fears of a possible economic slowdown were raised last week after a much worse than expected jobs report. The economy added just 75,000 jobs in May, according to the Labor Department last Friday. A report on Thursday showed a spike in jobless claims last week. Manufacturing activity last month grew at the slowest pace in two years.

if you tried to list all of the wrong market predictions from supposedly wise, knowledgeable sources, since the value of the Dow was first published in 1896 -



well, by the time you got to the year 1980 you would be very, very tired



you might give up or you might continue on and start listing a few thousand more








it's kind of like the "experts" on ESPN and elsewhere who talk about the NFL
some of them are very insightful - I'm not denying that



they're great at telling you what happened yesterday


but they can't tell you what will happen tomorrow

I'm sticking with the less well known SFOR index. It's about to go below the major level of .002 . If it can hold there, very bullish for the overall market

Obsess much?

Only about "the best stock in the world " Damn Straight!

Like to make money?
 

Over the years I've recommended individual stocks since that's my main game.

I have recommended on here in prior posts two companies that I said were very undervalued and great long-term holdings, Fidelity National Finance and Stewart Title Insurance. Both are in the title insurance and real estate processing business. (A wonderfully great and 'safe' business to be in, with near zero risk which produce piles of cash and earnings compounding at great rates.)

So, who wants to make about 20 per cent return in about 4-5 weeks or less??

ASAP buy Stewart Title, symbol STC.

It sells for $41.50 or so as I type this and Fidelity (FNF) has a take-over price of about $50, a deal set to close in less than a month. There's cash and stock involved so some may not want to play along being short-term oriented and options traders.

You should because FNF is getting STC at a discount to intrinsic value and is one of the 1-2 largest title insurance players in the country.

Good luck.

The deal could close as late as mid-Sept (see 8k from a week or so ago). There was also a second request from the FTC on the deal. Given the second request, there's a chance the combined companies could be forced to divest parts of the biz, which would result a downward adjustment to the purchase price (see proxy docs). It probably all works out, but if it were as riskless as you've outlined, the arbs would not allow such a wide gap, imo.

Nah, just another board dick...or is it bored dick? Not sure.

Thanks Mike for the update. I kept mum on this ever since the deal was first announced. I knew some states have tried to put roadblocks up but I thought that was just about over.

When I saw that there was a 'quick' 20 percent to be made, I thought I'd share that with my friends on PA.

I cannot believe there will be much divestiture of either company because the industry and these companies are quite small.

The arbs are way smarter than I am but then I have had nearly 20 companies I've owned over the years that were taken over. I'll concede them their brains but that's about it.

I've held stock in both companies for ages, so I don't care how it eventually plays out in a way. I'm keeping the stock forever and ever...

And I always speak so highly of YOU :headbanger:




https://cdn1.imggmi.com/uploads/2019...1f68c-prev.jpg upload

So the FED says no rate change up or down today.....Interesting.

Look WTF just happened to GOLD $1385, 6 year high.....Concerning.

Fed funds at 2.37, while the 10 year yield drops to 1.97!.....Inversion worsen rapidly.

Doesn't this look like the same script Ben Bernanke was following right before it all imploded?

Seems like there's a lot of moving parts here, Draghi and the Euro banks may be a much bigger problem than the US. When Powell said no rate cut - I'm thinking a lot of cash flowed from Europe to the 10 year and quite probably gold.

The top 4 title insurance players hold about 85% share, which probably explains why it's such an attractive biz. If FNF and STC merge, I believe their share would total around 45% That may be giving the FTC pause. I assume the FTC second review is focused on regional market share concentration issues (if the number is 45% overall, I suspect there are markets well north of that). Regardless, even with divestitures, the combined entities would represent an attractive biz, imo.

Your merger stats remind me of a Bloomberg article from last year. In rough terms, there were 7,500 public companies (ex OTC/pink sheets) in 1995. That number now stands around 4,000. Tons of M&A and fewer IPOs vs. pre-2000.

You have to admit, you've been king asshole regarding this topic.

I've pointed it out nicely a few times in the past, but now we're up to attempt #135 to beat this dead horse...thus...you get more colorful responses from me each and every time.

Not too hard to figure out.

The Euro has actually strengthened since yesterday morning, especially post Fed announcement.