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-   -   Stock Market Prediction (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=133768)

Ocala Mike 03-24-2019 06:59 AM

100 points on the Dow is hardly "tanking." Maybe you meant the S&P, though.

sammy the sage 03-24-2019 07:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ocala Mike (Post 2444486)
100 points on the Dow is hardly "tanking." Maybe you meant the S&P, though.

Thinking they'll all be down...tank might be too strong a word...either way...it's a prediction...

Half Smoke 03-24-2019 08:21 AM

the talking heads are saying that there is now an inverted yield curve with bonds and that this is a signal of a coming recession

I don't buy it. total BS. has to be more than that to predict a recession


https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmo.../#4d4e7c013abd

sammy the sage 03-25-2019 10:37 PM

looks like I was wrong...wasn't the first time...won't be the last...:coffee:

LemonSoupKid 03-27-2019 02:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Half Smoke (Post 2444505)
the talking heads are saying that there is now an inverted yield curve with bonds and that this is a signal of a coming recession

I don't buy it. total BS. has to be more than that to predict a recession


https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmo.../#4d4e7c013abd

They've been wrong for years and they'll be wrong for at least another year.

This is actually getting funny how much they show they have no idea of what's going on.

Valuist 03-29-2019 10:26 AM

How about GM as a way to play the Lyft IPO? I suspect Lyft will open much higher than the $72 listed price. GM is a major investor in Lyft.

barn32 03-29-2019 10:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Valuist (Post 2446473)
How about GM as a way to play the Lyft IPO? I suspect Lyft will open much higher than the $72 listed price. GM is a major investor in Lyft.

I feel like shorting this pig with both fists. Uber and Lyft are bleeding money, and now they're talking about taking more of the drivers share. The drivers of these companies don't make shit now.

What they need to do is raise fees substantially. Everyone knew this from the beginning, but their goal was to first raise market share, while at the same time putting the cab companies out of business. But if they don't raise fees they're going to lose another billion next year, and the next.

Sure it may get an initial bounce, but I wouldn't touch these Lyft or Uber IPOs with a ten-foot pole.

Saratoga_Mike 03-29-2019 11:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Valuist (Post 2446473)
How about GM as a way to play the Lyft IPO? I suspect Lyft will open much higher than the $72 listed price. GM is a major investor in Lyft.

GM owns 18.66 mm shares of LYFT. At $75, the shares are worth $1.4 billion, representing $1/share in GM value (1.4 billion shares of GM outstanding). In the long term, ride-sharing should be a negative for the automotive OEMs.

Jeff P 03-29-2019 11:47 AM

Yesterday, I found an article at The Motley Fool site about the Lyft IPO --

by Alex Dumortier, CFA (TMFAleph1) Mar 28, 2019 at 11:26PM
Lyft's IPO: the One Article You Need to Read:
https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/...d-to-read.aspx

Quote:

Starting with the customer
Theta Equity Partners ("Theta" below), a research firm, has pioneered customer-based corporate valuation (CBCV), a methodology that looks at underlying customer behaviors and their impact on a company's value. The key drivers of CBCV for a nonsubscription business are:
  • The average cost of acquiring customers (customer acquisition cost, or CAC)
  • The value customers generate (postacquisition value)
Subtract the first item from the second and you are left with what Theta calls the customer lifetime value (CLV).

Postacquisition value, in turn, breaks down into customer retention (churn), rides per active customer, revenue per ride, and the variable margin on those revenues. If you can estimate these metrics for a specific addressable market, you can forecast the company's future cash flows (after subtracting fixed costs). Those cash flows, discounted back to the present at an appropriate rate, produce an estimate of the company's fair value.

In a two-part series of blog posts on its website (here and here), Theta applies this framework to Lyft, using data provided in its offering prospectus to derive a fair value for the company. If you're considering buying the shares, I strongly urge you to read both posts carefully -- you won't find a better analysis in the public domain.
--and:
Quote:

Theta's conclusion with regard to Lyft's fair value is a sobering assessment of this overheated offering:
"[O]ur results suggest that Lyft's target valuation is not justified by their fundamentals under any practically realistic future state of the world. Our more optimistic scenario implies a fair valuation of about $7B, while our base case scenario implies a fair valuation of $4.5B."
Ouch! Those figures do not compare well to the $24.3 valuation the company is seeking, which requires some genuine contortions in operational performance...
FWIW, the guys and gals at The Motley Fool site aren't infallible. But over the years I've found them to be right more often than they've been wrong (by about a 2 to 1 margin.)



-jp

.

reckless 04-01-2019 11:37 AM

There is 2-tier voting makeup in Lyft; the founding owners get a majority of the voting rights; the retail public owners gets the shaft.

If anyone can get to a Fox interview from Friday --the day Lyft went public--with Neil Cavuto interviewing Scott Galloway, go watch it!!

Galloway is a NYU professor and a truly real-world intelligent kind of guy.

AltonKelsey 04-08-2019 12:47 PM

In the interest of fairness, I post this update





SFOR was presented here as 'the best stock in the world some time ago. I was skeptical



looks like I was wrong.


https://charting.nasdaq.com/ext/char...F-BT=0-HT=395-

highnote 04-22-2019 10:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by reckless (Post 2441624)
It will get there and through 2,900 a lot sooner than June, highnote, I believe.

Powerful news on the business front today and the market reacted accordingly. I actually think today was a buy signal for a very strong near- and long-term up market.

I am not a charts guy but markets and the economy are cooking and with the rest of the world going nowhere, the USA will be the only place for money to go to.

You were right... 2900 before June.

Now, do you sell in May and go away? Or stay long?

I'm staying long until my models tell me otherwise. S&P would have to drop 4% or more from today's close before I would sell. It hit a new cyclical high today. Last time it was in the 2900s was last October.

highnote 04-27-2019 11:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by highnote (Post 2455693)
You were right... 2900 before June.

Now, do you sell in May and go away? Or stay long?

I'm staying long until my models tell me otherwise. S&P would have to drop 4% or more from today's close before I would sell. It hit a new cyclical high today. Last time it was in the 2900s was last October.

All time high for SP today.

My model gave a buy signal on December 26, 2018 and then an even bigger one on January 8, 2019.

SP was at 2467 on Dec 26. It's up 25% since then.

How long will the party last?

highnote 05-13-2019 10:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by highnote (Post 2457551)
All time high for SP today.

My model gave a buy signal on December 26, 2018 and then an even bigger one on January 8, 2019.

SP was at 2467 on Dec 26. It's up 25% since then.

How long will the party last?

Looks like the party is over. The sell signal trigger was S&P 2828. It is at 2817. That's more than a 4% drop from the most recent peak.

barn32 05-13-2019 10:31 AM

The yield curve just inverted again.

http://i63.tinypic.com/69kdqh.png


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