Run Happy Travers
 

Derby Points 100-40-20-10

https://i.imgur.com/Bs4FiFa.png

:1: First Line: Trainer has been on fire. Watching the last race, does not quite pass the eye test. Back fast and is outgunned here.

:2: Country Grammer: Chad Brown looking to win this race, for the first time. Pace figures say that the distance might be a problem. Needs a fast pace, and the others to get hurt by the pace. Next year, maybe, for the win Chad.

:3: Uncle Chuck: Baffert. 3 blistering works. Hyped by comparison to Arrogate. Breeding says distance is possible. Is a contender, but going to make him prove it. 2nd.

:4: Max Player: Making up ground on Tiz in the last race. Gets some more ground to improve on it. Improving with distance. Needs another step forward to contend.

:5: Shivaree: Best figure is sprinting. Last race was bad. Gets more ground to cover and will not handle it. Might be involved early, and thats it.

:6: Tiz the Law: The one to beat. One bad race on a sloppy track. Possibility of rain, makes you wait for the track conditions. The Pick.

:7: Caracaro: Has some talent. Could very well be a G 1 winner. Just not today.

:8: South Bend: Private purchase, and moves to a Hall of Famer. Interesting at the price.

:6: / :3: / :4::8:

Uncle Chuck by a pole.

Manuel Franco
 

Would be leary to bet Tiz The Law at a short price. Manuel Franco firing blanks at the Spa (just like last year).

Great matchup between the top two.

Tiz the Law is a proven G1-3yo, and Uncle Chuck is a potential monster.

Max Player
 

"Max Player" worth a look.

He was solidly beat last start by "Tiz The Law", but has some positives.

Improving speed figures every race.
Best finishing Jockey Rosario fits his running style.
Broke Maiden on sloppy track (possible t-storms tomorrow).
Good recent workout.
Linda Rice 24% dirt starts

THA Free Pick for tomorrow

Going for an upset: :3::6::4:

The horse I am most curious about in here is Uncle Chuck. His last furlong of the Los Al race was very fast and he beat a horse that is in form and improving. I think he has a huge chance here, but at his likely price there are too many questions for me to put him on top. However, this is Saratoga, and I had similar thoughts about Arrogate initially.
Tiz the Law should win this, but again, Saratoga. Class, speed, brought along perfectly by Tagg. Easily the most likely winner imo.
I also love Max Player, but he's getting talked up quite a bit so may not be as good a price as I was hoping. He's got to move forward, but he doesn't need to improve nearly as much as some of the others, and he's been working fantastically for this. Problem is the pace might be against his running style, but I'm hoping he can sit a little closer than usual since he's been working sharply.
At longer odds I like Caracaro. I think he's got a better chance here vs. Brown's horse that beat him last time. He can sit closer for one thing, but I do think the added distance also won't be an issue. He's got to get better though, but it's likely given his lighter resume. I forward move might see him 2nd or 3rd.
Last horse I want to mention is Shivaree who will probably be overlooked (maybe for good reason), but he is pretty fast early and might be able to hang in there for bit. I don't expect a win, but an on the board finish would not surprise and his presence might actually help some of the others who are stalking/closing

:6::4::3::7::5:

:6: Tiz is obviously the horse to beat, but on the notion that the Belmont winner has rarely won the Travers, I'm going to look elsewhere. :3: is the obvious second choice but I'm not buying Baffert's second coming of Arrogate, and besides there will be no value in it

I'll take a shot with:2: Country Grammar as the horse for the course angle, being 1 of the 3 which has run a race at Saratoga and the only winner with a nice stretch run in the Peter Pan, the added distance should be OK for son of Tonalist. Also a rare opportunity to get a fair price on Chad-Irad combo.

The other play that interests me is :4: Max Player in the role of Keen Ice, a decent 3rd in the Belmont to Tiz and possibly matured and ready make a big jump.

Win:2::4:

Ex Bx:2::4:

Tri:2::4:/:2::4:/all

Super:2::4:/:2::4:/all/all

:1: Scratched

South Bend is an interesting exotics add for me as well.

I've come full circle with this horse.

He won the Street Sense S. as the favorite, but he did it by default, basically inheriting the win with a complete dream trip.

Was then a +ROI bet-against for four races in a row, until the public finally caught on that he isn't very good.
I guess that's not accurate, as he was way overbet again in the $75k English Channel stakes at Gulfstream...

Anyway he was a wildly underlayed horse for a good while, and now the public along with the class is finally causing him to be priced appropriately.

At the same time, he seems to have recently improved. Wasn't clear if the Ohio Derby just stunk and set him up very well, but was visually impressive, and then he has changed hands and worked like a better horse than he was during the underlay sequence.

today Jonathan Kinchin is wearing a green shirt with a flamingo pattern in it. i love this guys shirts, i wish the tripleclowns would interview him and ask him where he gets his shirts.

:6: / :4: :3: :2: Exactas