I am just not sure the younger more educated gambler, with many more options about to open up, is going to sit for a model where there is such fluctuation in the odds they are getting on the play.

I think a Betfair style exchange is much more friendly to a serious player.

Put an end to computer-robotic wagering...and this odds-dropping problem is over, IMO. These "bigshots" are already getting rebated to the hilt...why should they also be allowed to place thousands of different wagers at a click of a button at the very end of the betting period?

They say that 20% of the wagering pool comes from computer-robotic wagering; should the 20% gain prominence over the other 80%?

Most of the odds changes are just corrections on the win pool inefficiencies... if more bettors referenced the double prices to ascertain probable "off odds", there would be a whole lot less complaining.

One idea I have toyed with is shutting off remote betting 1 minute before post but allowing onsite betting, with perhaps a dollar limit, until the gates open.

That would reward people who attend the races live. But current business models at many tracks are so reliant on remote handle that it probably wouldn't work.

I am not certain this is true writ large, but I certainly have seen instances where the double and exacta probables looked closer to what the final odds would be.

The daily-double pools being much smaller than the win pools...how can they be relied upon to be more "predictive" in the forecasting of the "real" win-odds?

The win odds on a given horse are mostly commensurate in the multis... 10-15 years ago, maybe not so much. Yes, I understand that there will be more anomalies with smaller pools but if you calculate probable win odds from the doubles, the last second odds drops will be less surprising than just basing it on the board with "X" minutes to post...

Again, it's by no means an exact science but I'd be willing to bet that 90% of the time when someone complains about a drop, it is the price merely coming into line with the double will pays

And I'd be willing to TAKE that bet.

What percentage of pools are affected by computer-driven arbitrage wagering...? Might these robotic operations be the most likely source of the majority of the last second swings in odds...?

Also, I wonder how deeply affected BetFair is by massive arbitrage wagering schemes...seems like this venue might be more susceptible to these types of robotic operations...

This works best if you use the will-pays from the favorite in the previous race; as the odds from the winner in the previous race increase, the predictability becomes less-so.

I only play NYRA, so can't comment on how this works elsewhere. 90%? Maybe a little high. 75%? For sure. When the odds don't move in the direction of the double will-pays, that also tells you something...stable betting or betting from someone who knows something, or THINKS they know something.

I understand that odds can change after I make a bet, but I don't understand why the odds are allowed to change after the gate opens. There should be a national law that criminalizes that. Now if the track has to wait one minute for that to happen or 5 minutes, or 10 minutes, so be it. If they open the gate before all bet are calculated, then it comes out of the tracks pocket. That would stop this crap!

The main thing that needs to be stopped here, if a speed horse gets off to a bad start, he's finished and got no shot, in most cases. Being able to past post even 20 seconds is huge. There're been a few guys here in the past bragging about doing this.

Many Many times I see the favorite trading on Betfair exchange at 2.50 (3-2) yet the horse is sitting at 2-1 on the tote. I laugh at the naivety of the bettors who think they are going to get 2-1 on the horse. Always gets bet down like 100% of the time.

Betfair exchange odds are much more accurate indication of the off odds 2 MTP.

Allan

Okay. the acid test.

1st at Sunland 12/26/2017 Two minutes to post

5 horses. The 1 horse was scratched

Betfair odds

2---38
3---6
4---4
5---5-2
6---9-5

Tote odds

2---5
3---5-2
4---2
5---3
6---3

and the off odds

2--25
3--5-2
4--2
5--3
8--8-5

Allan

and they all look liked great values based on that

i want half your bet!

But two minutes after you two make that bet, it drops from 90% to 60%! :lol:

The Exchange wagers are not placed using the track and satellite wagering servers.
For normal PM wagering there are several betting outlets. All go to a hub. The hub then sends the bets to the host track. The host track mutuel computers then must reconcile the wagers. Only then are the odds, pool totals displayed on the infield tote and the monitors through out the respective plant.
At least in reading info on here, this is my understanding of how the wagers are processed.

Long time ago, NYRA closed betting when the display indicating "Minutes to Post reached "0".
The horses may have not started loading yet. It didn't matter.
Also, in those days. There were signs everywhere that clearly stated "once the patron leaves the betting window, all bets are final".
Today, on line bettors can cancel wagers up to the bell. And in turn bet the bell.
That huge volume of wagers made up to the last possible moment take time to be processed. Hence the time lag in displaying the odds and pool totals ot the public.

Great idea. Costs A LOT of money for the computer systems. Also, tons of money would have to be spent creating a fiber optic cable backbone.
The financial exchanges can afford the technology.
My guess is this technology is not in the budgets of most race tracks.

My perception is A) the whales expect preferential treatment.
B) If the perks stopped, the whales would find something else on which to bet their money.
If the whales pull their money from US based horse racing, the tracks all close. Period.

I would be willing to go out on a limb and say that perhaps 3/4's of the handle is that of the whales.

We all know this is happening.

Many of us still play.

And we are still bitching. :cool:

You better hope that limb is sturdy. You are way off. Nowhere near that high a %.

Should be interesting what comes of the investigation into the late P4 and P5 payoffs at SA today.

I've posted this many time before over the years but here goes again.

There is no money bet after the bell, other than the occasional issue of a track/pool not closing. I say occasional in that it happens less than 10 or 20 times a year that I've seen and that's with all the races being run in North America.

The phenomenon you see is related to the fact that guest site wagers (simulcast outlets, OTBs, ADWs, etc.) are NOT streamed continuously, they are batched and sent. How often that happens is dependent upon the host track, the host track's toe company, available bandwidth, etc. If you looked at the time stamp of wagers that hit a host pool at the off (and I have) you'd see bets that were made at the guest sites 60-90 seconds before that in many instances. This has gotten better over the years but the NYSE it ain't.

As far as the type of horses that get bet down the most, of course it's the logical contenders. The CAW models are very, very good at predicting the most like winners in each race and typically those are the kind of horses experiencing late odds drops. I don't know how many times someone has told me "I made that horse at MNR, DEL, TuP, etc 3/5 and he was 6/5 at post time so I bet him and he won and paid $3. If YOU can identify him as the most likely winner don't you think the sharps can too?

I'm not saying there's not a lot of problems with the game that needs fixing, but money being wagered after the gate opens isn't one of them.

I have thought for many years that the vulnerabilities in the scan bets (exploited in the BC Fix Six) have not been completed patched. That is my opinion, and however educated it may be, I do not know that for a fact.

What was suspicious about the will pays on the late pick 4/pick 5 at Santa Anita? Most pick 5's were paying about 8 to 11 times what most pick 4's were playing. I must be missing something, but sure not seeing it.

Sooo... Stronach is going to investigate their own?

WTF am I missing here?

Ok what's your guess.?
Is it your contention that the handle is driven by the $2.00 to $50 per race bettors?

They were way too low. It almost assuredly had to do with the late scratch in the last race after the P4/P5 pools were closed.

I won't say publicly what I think it is.

I am a consultant to both ADWs and large teams so I have a pretty good idea what's a realistic guess (because no one can say with 100% certainty) but there's no benefit to me discussing it publicly, other than to say 75% is much too high. It's significantly less than 50%.

That's all I'm going to say about it.

I blame it on TFUS who came a 1/2 length short of sweeping the late pick 4..:)

Whats the big secret?
See, its this kind of opaqueness in this business that helps create the perception that there is always something to hide.
Now, this is not personal. Take it as you wish.
I cannot understand why anyone with knowledge of a particular subject would quickly respond with "you're wrong, but due to ( fill in the blank) I cannot divulge. Just believe what I tell you".
That does not butter the toast.
Either provide the WHOLE answer, or let it go and don't respond.
Using pure logic here. There are large volume players and wagering syndicates that have been mentioned on this very website that wager millions of dollars per year.
Also, I pay close attention to tote board numbers.
A perfect example of where I get my perception of the whales driving the handle is this.
I'm at a track in NY. Typically the WPS handle DOUBLES or even TRIPLES within one minute to post time. And because many of the large volume players prefer to "hide" their wagers from the public, they are wagering at the last moment of the betting period. "Betting the bell".
So, if the everyday joe is making the handle larger, then why are the lines at the windows not 12 miles long? Or since the number of smaller bets coming in from off site venues required to create such significant numbers are being placed virtually simultaneously, would this not create a significant lag in the collection of data or even crash servers?
I must ask these questions because of the rather cryptic nature of your explanation.

That doesn't surprise me. There are plenty of "regular horseplayers" who bet a decent amount but are not whales. Some post on this board.

If it was all whales, online bet shops like tvg and xpressbet wouldn't be successful, because whales go to rebate shops.

1. Others have paid me for those type of insights. It would be unfair to give away that research for free.

2. I never said it is the $2 bettor that is driving handle. It's no secret that it's not. Many causal fans have been driven out of the game. That's a problem now and will be a bigger problem going forward. I do believe that the change related to W2Gs is or should be a big positive influence to the casual player.

3. I'm not disputing a large % of CAW handle is made very late in the wagering cycle. It's not all of it though, despite what you may have heard. I also believe it's very important to differentiate wagers made late but before the gates open and those wagers that are past-posted. There are more than a few on this board (and others) that do not make that distinction and claim that there is a great deal of handle being past-posted. That is simply not the case.

4. As far as lines at the windows, 90% of handle now comes in from off-site. That's across all tracks. When you factor in higher on-track handle at SAR, KEE, DMR,etc it's probably like 91-92% for other tracks. Hence, no long lines at the windows. That time has come and gone.

5. I rarely post these days. Typically when I do it's to correct egregious misinformation. This game has enough problems. There's no reason for people to distort the truth to make it seem worse than it is. Again that's nothing personal. I'm sure you believe CAW handle is 3/4 of the total. Maybe you've read that here or elsewhere in cyberspace. I just didn't want anyone else seeing that figure and believing it too, or worse yet spreading that. CAW teams are not betting $7 billion a year. If there were a dozen large teams they'd each be betting on average $600 million a year. Is that what people really think? I can tell you there are zero teams betting $600mm a year into our pools let alone a dozen of them.

I think that Ian is spot on regarding the whole past post issue. I am convinced that there are very few instances where betting has taken place after the gates have opened. It does happen, but it is very unusual due to some malfunction, and not some common conspiracy.

I have believed for a long time that betting should be halted at a specific time. There could be a countdown clock that clearly told everyone when betting stops. This would help, but not cure the problem of large odd changes. At least bettors would know what the odds were prior to the start. I know how frustrating it is to see what you thought was a 5/2 bet come down to 3/5. That would still happen, but at least it would be before the race has started, which would at least make it appear more legitimate.

As far as whale betting goes, I think that the real percentage is somewhere between 25 and 30%. That percentage varies by track too.

I don't think there are people betting after the bell, but I'm not convinced people aren't being allowed to cancel after the bell.

there is AFTER THE BELL betting going on for sure in many harness tracks right now in 2017 and probably in 2018. The Red Mile has about 25 customers that only play the bell.`The Red Mile has live video feeds. Dover and Harrington have after the bell betting but only on their own product.

does it happen in Thoroughbreds? probably but i have no idea where it takes place so i am not so sure about it. it does not happen in any large onshore ADW at all. i don't have any idea about the offshore ones.

the only thing i know is that whenever money is on the line, there is always someone there trying to get it. if you know how to call the break, you can't lose.

It's about 15%, and from a shockingly low number of whales.

Pretty difficult to beat the computer syndicates when my system says i have value at 5/1 0 mtp and he loads at 4/1, enters the stretch at 3/1, and crosses the finish line at 2/1. Getting real difficult unless you only play large pools.