3 profound quotes on the importance of value...
 

"Most of us who win at the races do so with overlays"

Tom Ainslie

"We will lose more races than we win. When we win, we should be rewarded."

Barry Meadow

"I can get even money from a change machine."

Tom

"I can get even money from a change machine."

I don't think so,
A change machine is a break even event.
What you put in is what you get out.
Even money gets you back an additional $1.00 for each $1.00.
Tell me where I can find a change machine where I put in $1.00 and get $2,00 back and I'll be there all day and night,:kiss:

:ThmbUp:

"Odds and you, against any two."

some change machines take a percentage of your change too :lol:

I think we can all agree on the importance of value. The problem is identifying value.

And RETAINING the identified value throughout the race.

One person's underlay is another person's overlay, and vice versa.

Didn't Jay Cronley at the end of all his columns write "There is value in all winners?"

...........................




not a man alive can pay the bills on 4/5




but on the other hand:




better a short price than a long face




quote - Howard Sartin -





every winner is an overlay









and Barry Meadow in his book "Money Secrets at the Racetrack" (I'm pretty sure it was that book) criticized his buddies for their rule to never bet a horse going off at less than even money - saying that he would if he believed the payout was greater than the true odds




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Value is very nebulous o say the least. That said, I hate to bet a horse at less than 4-1.

value
 

1. I disagree with a significant part of the 'narrative'.
2. I know that I'm correct.
3. And, I'm going to come out ahead after the process of thousands of such bets, without any concern over the immediate specific result.

:bang:

Takes some competence in at least part of the game. Very difficult and rare to find such opportunities, and (often most difficult of all), you have to overcome the cognitive biases and results-oriented irrational play.

Easier typed, than done.

I also disagree with the entire narrative because the quoted sayings (and most of the responses) seem to imply an effort to find value with individual entries for purposes of playing them to win. I’ve never thought of myself as player who attempts to simply “Picking Winners”. I would prefer to characterize my involvement as an endeavor to make "Winning Plays". This will of course include those pre-race tote observations to determine if the results of making any play that will result in a reasonable profit margin.

I’ve never had a problem including a short-priced entry among others when playing the variety of Vertical exotics that are available, or even when making a 3-entry Dutch Win bet. The bottom line for me is always the relationship between a known hit frequency and an anticipated profit margin. This is based on a quick examination of a combination of the odds of the selected contenders and the amount necessary to cover the entire bet properly. If either component shows a marginal outcome the race simply becomes a pass.

This has proven to me to be a significant facet in improving the overall hit frequency %.

Although I generally try to maintain a disciplined approach, I will admit to playing an Exotic now and then with a low hit frequency, but only when the anticipated profit margin is substantial. This applies primarily to playing Supers.
Every once and while that always tempting Siren song will play in our mind in order to entice us to attempt snatching that excessive Profit. Those womanly-birds certainly know our human weaknesses in the betting area.
.

..............


sayings are fun to read or listen to but they really don't proffer any wisdom on how to win at this game

they imply a one size fits all mentality

clearly, there are many ways to approach betting racing and to strategize




if you looked at the strategies of 100 who are winners you would surely find many different approaches





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Related to the thread on Benter, what appears to be value is often not because others have inside knowledge about these horses that you don't have but that info winds up being reflected on the board.

That's the giant "hole" in the odds line approach.

Your odds line reflects the information you have and the data/figures you are using, but sometimes what you have is incomplete or in error. So what appears to be good value is not.

The trick (no easy task) is knowing when you know something that is not reflected on the board but should be.

How can an insider or anyone win if all the info is reflected in the odds?