R7 Del Mar OC$80Kn1x 11/16/18
 

Yes, the days are getting shorter, the temperatures are getting colder, and the playable races are getting harder to find.

This should be a really good wagering opportunity in a rather shitty Del Mar card.

:1: Kodiak West: Her second time to run in the states and she'll take a ton of money just like last time. 7th of 10 last out without much of an excuse as the dead chalk. Tough to like at any price, much less a short one,.

:2: Stradella Road: Somewhat lightly raced filly rolls in fresh off her Maiden victory. A very consistent runner that makes up ground late. A very interesting 20/1 ML that I see as a serious contender in here.

:3: Don't Blame Judy: Always bet, but her last two are a bit troubling. Not sure she is better than almost any in here.

:4: Retro: Connections have had high expectations for this one after she busted her Maiden at first asking. She fits in here, and can't be dismissed. Solid contender.

:5: Sappho: Her 2018 season has been a disaster. 0 for the board in '18 in 4 tries. I'm really trying to find a reason to like this filly, but it is nearly impossible. While I think she may be good, I have to let her beat me.

:6: K P Pergoliscious: A filly certainly on the improve. They took a big swing last out, and she didn't embarrass herself. Solid entry that has to be considered.


:7: Nice Ice: A front-ender that kind of needs things to go here way. Last out wasn't one of those times. Not a whole lot of other speed in here, so she could sit a decent trip even with a bad post. Seems to really fit and should be a big part of the mix in here.

:8: Pacific Strike: Runs a good race every now and again, but should be a deserving longshot. Tough to see.


WP :2:
EX: :2::4::7: Box
Tri: :2::4:/:2::4::7:/All

LDH, hope you have a good Thanksgiving.



:1: Kodiak West: Got her first out in the states 3 months ago and sits on a big race here. Defection of Prat is a concern but gets a capable substitution. The pick.

:2: Stradella Road: Do not see much of a chance for this one. Steady maiden breaker was nothing to be exited about.

:3: Don't Blame Judy: Would like this one, but in another spot. Got close to a fast pace in last and suffered in the stretch, same thing might happen today. Pass

:4: Retro: Probable favorite because of the connections. I have had quite a few bad times betting against this jockey, so we will do it again. Exotics.

:5: Sappho: Best two races have been sprint to route. That said, just is not quite good enough.

:6: K P Pergoliscious: Late runner leaves herself to much to do in the stretch today. Underneath.

:7: Nice Ice: Is the speed, and that makes this one dangerous. Fired off a break before and can do it again. Exacta contender for sure.

:8: Pacific Strike: Inconsistent runner can surprise. Give this one a shot underneath.

:1:

:6::7:

:4::6::7:

:5::8:

two from muscle beach and two reaches
 

1 should win...

unless the 4 runs big enough to beat him (leaving 1 at worst second).

7 is the pace-play exotics add to hope to run 2nd,3rd, or 4th in the superfecta.

I'll bunch the 7 with the 5 to beef-up that slot.


Ticket Cost =$8 (x20cents for the 1,4/1,4/5,7/all ticket, and a dime for the four other tickets)

*her

unless her pronoun is 'he'

I know I'm handicapping late-season 3yo fillies, but I'm bad with horse pronouns when talking horses, unless I'm dealing with Zenyatta or something.

You never know nowadays Robert. Maybe "she" wants to be recognized as a "he"? :cool:

:confused:

Am I allowed to root against K P Pergoliscious due to her ridiculous name?

DRF FORMULATOR
 

anyone care to share any Formulator stats for Trainer Neil Drysdale concerning:
Turf Routes
Turf Routes 61-180 Days
Turf Routes w/ 1st Blinkers ?


Looks like this one has been training well(my opinion from videos) and figures to be more prominent at the stretch call.

Well, the guy won a BC Turf with Prized (making his first start on turf), so I would assume he knows how to train a turf router.

I use Brisnet and Ragozin Sheets.


Drysdale stats:
11% 90+ days away
14% 1st Time Blinkers
10% 2nd start with Trainer


As for the :1:s Sheet numbers? I will say this. There are 5 other horses in the field that have equaled or bettered her best Sheet number.

Yea, this Drysdale guy may know what he's doing.

If the :1:, and :4: weren't trained by such sharp guys, they'd be vulnerable on paper-form and length of the layoff.
I have a feeling that neither of these 'needs a race'.

That's interesting.

Do the Sheets do numbers for her foreign starts, or just the one US race?

Her last 5 races have been "sheeted".


As a practice, however, I do subtract 2 to 3 points for Euro races compared to American races on turf. In this case, it doesn't make her numbers of any significant difference.

Nice Ice.

Brian J. Koriner (the trainer) has four wins in six attempts.

Nice.

1-6 with
1-2-5-6 with
1-2-5-6

:2::7: