G1 Whitney - 8/4/18
 

8 entered, and only 1 will leave with a BC Classic auto entry.


Interesting field only begins to tell the story:


:1: Tapwrit: Belmont StaSUMMkes winner enters his 3rd race as a 4YO. Unboubtedly this was one (if not others) connections were pointing him towards from the very start. He now meets the very question. Is he good enough?



:2: Backyard Haven: This very lightly raced 4YO got whipped last out. Looked like he may have been on the route to something special. Now he has to regroup, and prove his worth. One could say it is encouraging that they ship to Toga, but it is Chad Brown. Where else would he go?


:3: Dalmore: Having a monster 2018 campaign, but these are a bit different. Not without a chance on the front.



:4: Mind Your Biscuits: Mile and an eighth. This has been a flat stone cold sprinter for his first 3 years. Maybe he is a two turn horse? Have to bet against at a short price.


:5: Discreet Lover: Has never beat anybody worth any kind of note.



:6: Diversify: Back to back winner wired a pretty good field last out. Serious contender, and likely favorite.


:7: Good Samaritan: Needs a ridiculously hot pace. Really ridiculous, and still may not be good enough. He'll finish 3rd. Book it.

:8: McCraken: Connections haven't given up. The up and comer has a serious shot in here at a price. As a 4YO, he has yet to run his best race. Will his best be tomorrow?


SUMMARY: Who in this field can you trust? If any? Why not Biscuits against this field?

I'm more concerned DIVERSIFY falls apart than MIND YOUR BISCUITS holds up, and Irad has really been choking out his horses at Saratoga this meet (my opinion). TAPWRIT is to on and off for me, hard to trust. BACKYARD HEAVEN likely to get a slice or maybe GOOD SAMARITAN flying late in the exotics or a win if the pace falls apart, but what will the pace be, looks to be a odd race shape from my estimates. My accept line is high on this race, too much chaos for me.

:4: MIND YOUR BISCUITS 4.5
:6: DIVERSIFY 5.0
:2: BACKYARD HEAVEN 6.5
:1: TAPWRIT 9.5
:5: DISCREET LOVER 11.0
:7: GOOD SAMARITAN 13.0
:3: DALMORE 15.0
:8: MCCRAKEN 15.0

:6: DIVERSIFY = Can he run his amazing last race back? That was Breeders Cup Classic material, and nothing else in here really is. I used him on a multi as a wire threat in the Suburban, but sure didn't expect that amazing improvement.

:2: BACKYARD HEAVEN = Has the right kind of look on paper. He's still trying to simply assert/prove himself as a member of this higher class.

:4: MIND YOUR BISCUITS = Assuming he remains true to his style, he will be entering the window of contention late. If Diversify falters, he could even have a chance to contend for the win.


These 3 players are also the three chalks.

Crap day for weather so tough race.

:6: to win with :4: for 2nd and :8: longshot for 3rd.

Crap is correct.
I was looking forward to this day, but I will pass the whole card- or what is left of it.

No matter what the TC, I do not like MYB at all in this.
It takes a lot to do two turns 9 furlongs at Toga.
I can see a big middle move followed by a hang.

Good luck.

Just saw some photos of the backside at Toga.


Kind of amazed they'll even be racing today.

Just ran the first race, looked dry to me.
Kicking up dust.

Might play after all.

:1: Tapwrit steps up today.

Ha. Was just about to post this. :headbanger:


Giving 'em another try. This race just screams 'survivor' to me. Best horse may not win, but the one that doesn't quit looks like he may well end up on top in here.

Aluminum pad off today.

OK, all stakes left on the card.

TEST

Why is :4: going off at such high odds?
Looks to me like the :4: and the :7: have set and beaten much faster paces than anyone else.
:9: is best TF late horse but has closed into those fast paces and can't put up competitive final figs.

Two horse race.
Or a total outsider steps up and runs a new top by a big amount.

Test

:4::6::3:

Just wondering where that race came from for the :6: - never been close to that good. To me, a surprise.

OK, the Whitney.

I'm thinking the pace today will be between 128-132.
Here are the numbers for two trun routes - Pace of the race and PF of the horse.

:1: Tapwrit ran a 126-117 at Tampa and a 129-124 at Toga around two-turns. Stretch to win this one

:2: Backyard Heaven ran a 136-119 last time, after two new tops this year. He ran a 131-130 two back and could race back to that or move ahead a bit - strong contender today

:3: Dalmore has run against 129-136-128 and put up PFs of 123-124-125

:4: Mind Your Biscuits - never been around two turn - can't like him in here.

:5: Discreet Lover - too slow and can't run with G1 or 2 horses.

:6: Diversity - 128-130 at Toga and a 127-132 over the Inner - one to beat

:7: Good Samaritan - 131-123 and 136-125 around two turns - contender

:8: McCracken - 128-123 and 126-120 around two turns - bottom of exotics only

:6: 9-5
:2: 5-1
:7: 6-1
:3: 6-1

Track sealed about 10 minutes ago. Now we have a completely different surface for the race. Not sure I like them sealing it right before a big race where all the horizontals are in.